124
FXUS63 KTOP 151044
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
444 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another very warm day is expected today, followed by slightly
cooler but still above average temperatures into early next week.

- Rain chances Monday have lowered (10-25%) with better chances
  (30- 50%) coming Wednesday night through Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Upper air pattern early this morning consists of one trough centered
over northern Manitoba and another closed low spinning off the coast
of California. This leaves ridging for the south central CONUS, with
our area within more of a zonal flow pattern as the northern stream
trough helps to flatten the ridge over the local area. There`s
enough moisture aloft for some high clouds in the region, but there
has been just enough clearing at times for some patchy ground fog in
the typical low-lying spots this morning, so expect that to be the
case through sunrise. At the surface, low pressure is centered in
Lake Superior with its trough axis extending southwest through IA,
NE, and KS. This system is progged to drag a weak cold front through
the area this morning and should be entirely across the area close
to noon, per CAM guidance. Thanks to a stout inversion aloft and
decent mixing of that inversion through the BL, we shouldn`t feel
much of an effect from the cooler air mass until tonight into
Sunday. Today`s highs still are forecast to reach the 70s area-wide,
and little spread in the NBM indicates high confidence in that.
Tonight`s lows fall back to the upper 30s to low 40s, followed by
high temperatures in the 60s for Sunday. High pressure slides across
the region to give us plenty of sunshine.

Meanwhile, the southern stream trough is progged to weaken as it
evolves from the closed low over CA to an open wave while traversing
northeastward across the Great Basin into the Rockies. While there
is still some model variability in how far north this system will
track by Monday (the NAM being farthest north), the general
consensus would still track the system north of us with the best
upper support being into Nebraska. Moisture quality is also in
question. The best moisture transport appears to be during the
morning and afternoon, but forecast soundings (other than the NAM)
only show a shallow stratus deck around 3-5kft AGL with drier air
towards the surface. Given the northerly track and questionable
moisture, think the lowering of PoPs to 10-25% (and focusing them
north of I-70) makes sense. High temperatures have trended a bit
warmer for Monday based on the system tracking north as well, with
highs forecast between 60-70 degrees.

The sfc low associated with the Monday system looks to be east of
the area by Tuesday morning, bringing another cold front with it.
This brings temperatures down slightly for Tuesday with highs in the
upper 50s to mid 60s. Then for the middle and end of next week,
another amplified trough is progged to traverse across the southwest
CONUS. This one stands the better chance of bringing some rainfall
to the area, though differences in strength and timing of this
trough keep PoPs mostly below 50% between Wednesday night and
Friday. It should also be mentioned that temperature ranges are at
least 10 degrees from Monday onward, lending to lower confidence due
to placement of the warm front with Monday`s system and
clouds/precip for later in the week. Temperatures above average for
mid-November are generally favored, but this could change for later
in the week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 444 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Some ground fog has been observed in the river valley at TOP,
and also briefly at MHK. Have tempo groups with reduced vis from
this for the first couple of hours in the period; otherwise
expect VFR conditions outside of this. A cold front will switch
winds to the north later in the morning, and they should increase
above 10 kts for a few hours into the afternoon. Lighter winds
commence by late afternoon for the remainder of the period.


&&

.CLIMATE...
Updated at 327 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

      Record High         Forecast High
Nov 15
Topeka       78 (1887, 1899, 1950)  74
Concordia    77 (1887, 1952)        72

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Picha
AVIATION...Picha
CLIMATE...Flanagan/Poage