185
FXUS63 KTOP 170442
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1042 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low chance (10-20%) for showers Monday with better chances
  for rain and thunderstorms coming late Wednesday through
  Friday.

- Temps throughout the next week remain above normal with highs
  in the 60s each day, falling into the 50s next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 205 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Incoming upper low is currently rotating into Nevada this afternoon
with northwest flow from the downstream ridge in the central CONUS.
Cooler sfc high axis has settled into northern MO as more seasonable
temps are observed in the upper 50s low 60s. Lower clouds begin to
increase from the west after midnight as the aforementioned
positively titled low axis lifts into Nebraska Monday afternoon and
evening. While initial lead trough brings mostly cloudy skies in the
morning, increasing h925 temps and drier air advecting east behind
the sfc low translates to clearing skies and overall warmer temps
towards north central areas where highs were increased Monday into
the lower 70s. Locations over far eastern KS where cloud cover
lingers into the afternoon see highs in the low-mid 60s. Confidence
remains moderate-high in minimal measurable precip with this system
as the focused lift coinciding with enhanced moisture do not align
until the evening when precip is focused from NE to MO. Cannot rule
out a hundredth or two of rainfall towards far eastern KS in the
early evening, but otherwise most of the area remains dry in this
period.

Slightly cooler air, albeit still above normal, become the norm
throughout the work week with highs in the 60s and overnight lows in
the 40s to low 50s. High variability persists with the next slow
moving upper low progged to impact the region as early as late
Wednesday evening with the highest probs for precip on Thursday for
areas along and south of I-70. While abundant moisture is present
with this system and some weak elevated instability to suggest the
possibility for a few storms, large variability in the timing and
track from ensembles lends to low confidence in timing for rainfall
and qpf amounts at this point. As the system exits next weekend,
cooler airmass settles into the region as forecast highs are
generally in the low 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1042 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Main aviation concern is the potential for MVFR cigs to reach
terminals Monday morning. The current cloud deck in Oklahoma is
VFR, but guidance depicts this area of clouds to be high-end MVFR.
So with the current low bias in the height of clouds, have maintained
a more optimistic forecast. However, there is a chance for at least
a few hours of MVFR cig at all sites, potentially even lingering
through the day Monday. Wind increase from the southeast Monday
morning with some gusts around 20kts before weakening by 22z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Prieto
AVIATION...Flanagan