400
FXUS63 KTOP 282309
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
609 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Late August into early September heat wave commences this
  weekend through most of next week with highs in the
  middle/upper 90s. Peak heat indices are around 100 degrees
  each afternoon from Saturday through at least next Friday.

- Pattern shift next week brings slight chances for showers and
  storms, mainly over far northern Kansas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 147 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Mid level heights are gradually building east this afternoon as the
expansive ridge is progged to shift towards the southeast CONUS this
weekend. Isolated storm chances are below 10% this afternoon given
the stout 700 mb capping inversion, suppressing diurnal convection.
Northern stream upper trough traversing the northern plains should
generate another MCS eastward and away from the region overnight
tonight.

As the sfc ridge axis slides eastward, lee troughing builds over
eastern CO, increasing southerly winds Saturday afternoon from 15 to
20 mph with gusts to near 30 mph. Gusty sfc winds persist Sunday and
Monday as mid level southwesterlies increase, enhancing warm air
advection. Decent boundary layer mixing should lower dewpoints into
the low and middle 60s as high temperatures reach the mid to upper
90s. Peak heat indices as a result hover in the low 100s through at
least next Thursday for portions of eastern Kansas. Warm low records
are at stake Sunday-Tuesday with forecast lows in the upper 70s.
More uncertainty in temps exist towards central Kansas as a weak
front approaches from the northwest beginning Sunday evening. Model
ensembles are trending drier for Sunday evening through Tuesday as
the front is further displaced west along with the more organized
lift. Late in the forecast period (Wednesday-Thursday), residual
cloud cover from overnight convection may signal slightly lower
highs over northern Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 609 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

VFR conditions prevail. Marginal LLWS conditions set up overnight
as the LLJ strengthens to 35-40kts. Surface winds are expected
to remain around 5kts overnight with a gradual change in wind
direction with height, favoring low-level turbulence over true LLWS.
Winds become gusty from the south after sunrise Saturday morning.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 145 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Record highest minimum temperature information:

                          Record                 Forecast
August 30  Topeka     79, set in 1932               76
           Concordia  78, set in 1951               79


August 31  Topeka     77, set in 1912 and 1947      78
           Concordia  81, set in 1947               78


September 1 Topeka     81, set in 2011              78
            Concordia  80, set in 1913              77

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...22
AVIATION...Flanagan
CLIMATE...22/Poage