854
FXUS63 KTOP 071034
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
534 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect until Tuesday
  evening. Afternoon heat index values will reach 100-108
  degrees today and Tuesday.

- There is a low chance (15%) for a shower or non-severe storm
  to develop this afternoon.

- A cold front will move through the area Tuesday evening into
  Wednesday, bringing chances for showers and storms along with
  relief from the excessive heat through the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Mid-level ridging remains in control of the Southern and Central
Plains early this morning. A convectively-enhanced shortwave is
pushing southeast across Missouri with showers and a few storms
continuing just east of the forecast area. Outflow-cooled air has
pushed west across the entire area with observations showing
easterly winds. Winds will increase from the south-southeast after
sunrise this morning and work to mix out the cooler outflow air,
leading to another hot afternoon with highs in the low 90s to near
100 degrees. Short-term guidance suggests dewpoints mix out into the
low 60s or even upper 50s across central Kansas. Based on recent
performance, think this is too ambitious of mixing from models
and have kept dewpoints in the low to mid 60s across central and
north central Kansas and in the upper 60s to near 70 across far
eastern Kansas. This creates heat index values of 100-105
degrees again this afternoon. Forcing is weak, but an uncapped
airmass could allow an isolated shower or storm to develop this
afternoon. Not expecting any severe weather, but inverted-V
soundings favor some gusty winds if a storm does develop.

A pattern change occurs Tuesday into Wednesday as a potent shortwave
ejects east across the Northern Plains towards the Great Lakes,
squashing the mid-level ridge and shunting a cold front into the
middle of the country. Ahead of the front, southwesterly winds will
boost temperatures into the upper 90s to around 100 degrees again
Tuesday afternoon with heat index values of 100-108 degrees. The
Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect through 7 PM Tuesday. Speed
of the front is varied among guidance, but it appears the front
should be moving into northern Kansas by late Tuesday afternoon or
evening with showers and storms developing along the boundary. The
best forcing is displaced north of the front which could lead to
more widely scattered storms as opposed to a solid QLCS. Shear is
progged to be marginal (20kts), but initial storms could pose a
damaging wind gust and hail risk. There is some potential for storms
to evolve into line segments during the evening and overnight hours,
but overall confidence is low in severe storms at this time.

The front gradually moves south through the day Wednesday, with some
showers and storms continuing along the boundary. Cloud cover and
northerly winds will lead to a relatively cooler day behind the
front with highs in the 80s to low 90s. The pre-frontal environment
will still be hot and favorable for some marginally severe storms by
Wednesday afternoon, but the boundary may be completely through the
area by the time convection develops. Will need to monitor the speed
of the front to determine weather east-central Kansas will have a
chance for some stronger storms and heat indices around 100 degrees.
The front will push through the area by Wednesday evening, bringing
in the much anticipated cooler temperatures for Thursday! Highs in
the 80s on Thursday will warm slightly into the mid 80s and low 90s
to end the week. Passing waves in the quasi-zonal flow lead to
continued chances for precipitation into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 534 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

VFR conditions prevail. Winds increase to around 10kts after
sunrise this morning from the south-southeast then weaken
slightly after sunset this evening. Can`t rule out a shower/storm
developing this afternoon, but chances are low (10-15%).

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 222 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Record highest minimum temperature information:

                      Record                   Forecast

September 8  Topeka     78, set in 1983           75
 Concordia  77, set in 1947 & 1983    77

Record high temperature information:

September 8  Topeka     104, set in 2013          100
 Concordia  102, set in 2013          101

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ008-KSZ009-
KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-
KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-
KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Flanagan
AVIATION...Flanagan
CLIMATE...Flanagan/Poage