934
FXUS63 KTOP 282242
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
542 PM CDT Thu May 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers continue this afternoon with a few thunderstorms possible
  this afternoon into early evening with some clearing now just south
  of the area.

- Additional chances (although lower) continue off and on through the
  weekend. Saturday may see a chance for a brief window of isolated
  severe storms to develop. Confidence is low this far out.

- Temperatures remain near or slightly above normal through early
  next week with more chances for moisture return and precipitation
  by mid-week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 331 PM CDT Thu May 28 2026

Water vapor imagery and the 12Z upper air analysis confirm the western
CONUS cutoff low now centered over northern CA, with a broad mid-
level ridge extending from the southeast through the northern Plains.
A mid-level shortwave is lifting north through the central and
southern Plains, driving the current round of showers and stratiform
rain northward across the CWA. PWATs per SPC mesoanalysis of 1.70 to
1.90 inches across south-central Kansas, well above the 90th
percentile, support efficient rainfall with brief heavy rates
possible in the most intense bands. Overall, shear and instability
remain unfavorable for severe storms but a few isolated storms may be
possible late this afternoon into early this evening.

The cutoff low lifts northeast across the Rockies into the northern
Plains Friday night through the weekend, bringing the better dynamics
progressively closer to the CWA. Ensemble guidance keeps the better
forcing and DCVA northwest of the area, but the base of the trough
may provide sufficient ascent for additional rounds of showers and
storms Friday night into Saturday, and again Saturday afternoon into
Sunday. Overall shear may increase just enough into the 30 knot range
by Saturday afternoon, with MUCAPE values progged above 1000 J/kg
across much of the area. That overlapping area may support organized
convection and some storms may approach severe limits, particularly
Saturday afternoon. CIPS analog guidance places the primary severe
signal over western Kansas, which keeps the highest threat west and
southwest of the CWA, but this bears monitoring. Confidence in
specific storm mode and timing remains limited.

Beyond Sunday, the pattern attempts to rebuild a ridge over the
central Plains. A return flow pattern then re-establishes and
another moisture surge by mid next week, but spread widening amongst
the ENS, GEFS, and GEPS keeps confidence limited at that range.
Temperatures climb through the upper 70s this weekend and into the
mid to upper 80s early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 542 PM CDT Thu May 28 2026

Occasional showers will persist into Friday with showers forecast to
become a little more widely scattered by Friday afternoon. Conditions
are expected to deteriorate overnight as the boundary layer
saturates. Think IFR CIGS will eventually move in with some gradual
improvement Friday afternoon. Timing precip is based mainly off the
latest CAMs. Have just prevailing -RA for much of the night trying to
highlight when moderate to heavy precip might be with a tempo group.
Can`t rule out an isolated TS, but with lapse rates near 5.5 C/km it
should be the minor weather element overnight.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Drake
AVIATION...Wolters