248
FXUS63 KTOP 051111
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
611 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another warm and windy day today with storm chances across north-
central and central Kansas this evening.

- A few storms in the early evening hours could be strong to severe
posing a risk for hail and damaging winds. Storms are expected to
weaken by 9-10 PM.

- Scattered chances (30-50%) for rain and storms continue
  through the day Monday before another round of more widespread
  (40- 60%) rain/storms return Monday evening into early
  Tuesday morning.

- Precipitation chances exit Tuesday morning with cooler
  temperatures building in Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

Water vapor imagery this morning shows a shortwave tracking into the
northern Plains that is associated with a longer lifting trough over
the Mountain West. In response to the ejecting upper wave, a surface
trough has begun to track east off the lee of the Rockies, currently
stretching from southeastern CO to east-central ND. Across the
southeastern US, a large dome of high pressure remains near-
stationary. Throughout the day today, the tight pressure gradient
ahead of the main surface trough will again lead to gusty southern
winds as it tracks towards north-central Kansas by the evening. With
ample sunshine, deep diurnal mixing and WAA, expect
temperatures this afternoon to top out in the mid to upper 80s
once again.

By the early evening hours, the surface trough will have tracked
into north-central Kansas where subtle convergence should be
sufficient enough for convective initiation. Forecast soundings
depict inverted-v profiles with fairly modest ML lapse rates. While
shear aloft (~40 knots of 0-6km bulk shear) should be more than
sufficient for strong and organized convection, the marginal CAPE
values of 500-1000 J/kg do not seem to point to very potent and
strong updrafts. In addition, some dry air aloft may lead to dry air
entrainment into updrafts further providing difficulties for
convection to become severe for long durations. All that said,
initial convection (generally between 6-8 PM) could see a few storms
become strong to severe with damaging winds of 60 mph likely being
the main hazard. Cannot rule out some isolated large hail in initial
convection, but overall, it does not look like a usual large hail
event. Storms this evening will quickly grow upscale given shear
orientations along the boundary. Low-level flow increasing ahead of
the boundary Sunday night into Monday morning will promote
widespread precipitation across central and north-central Kansas.
Additionally, models do not seem to move the axis of QPF much during
this time range so some areas could see some appreciable rainfall.
With PWATs overnight ranging from 1.25-1.5", a narrow axis of
rainfall exceeding an inch is becoming more likely (50-60% from HREF
Probabilities) with 25th to 75th HREF accumulations overnight
generally sitting at 0.75"-1.25" for areas from Concordia to
Marysville. Rain and storm chances continue through Monday,
increasing again Monday evening and into Tuesday morning as
isentropic ascent overnight helps revamp lift and moisture. Guidance
seems to keep the main QPF axis again stretched from central to
northeastern Kansas with areas in east-central and southeastern
Kansas missing out on most of the rainfall. By Tuesday morning,
expected total rainfall totals for this event will range
between 0.4"-1.25" north and west of I-35 with only a few
hundredths to a few tenths south and east of I-35.

Subsidence quickly builds in behind the wave Tuesday morning and
afternoon and ushers in a cool ridge of high pressure across the
region. Mostly cloudy skies Tuesday and CAA should allow
temperatures to not warm much above the upper 60s and low 70s with
similar (but sunnier) conditions expected Wednesday. The remainder
of the week should stay fairly dry as a slow increase in mid-level
heights build back across the central Plains and return afternoon
temperatures to the low 80s by the weekend. That said, temperature
spreads Thursday and beyond are still 8-10 degrees, so overall
confidence in another warming trend is not overly high.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 608 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

Winds continue to be the main focus of the TAF at all sites with
southerly gusts upwards of 30-35 mph will be common this
afternoon. Did add mention of precipitation and VCTS at KMHK
late in the period as decaying storms moving out of central
Kansas will begin to move east by the early morning Monday.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Griesemer
AVIATION...Griesemer