317
FXUS63 KTOP 262321
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
621 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures are expected to continue into the
  weekend.

- Off and on chances for showers are forecast through the weekend.
  The better chances (around 60%) for precipitation look to be Friday
  and again Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

19Z water vapor imagery showed a couple disorganized shortwaves
lifting northeast into the northern and central plains. A longer
wavelength trough was setup over the Pacific Northwest. At the
surface an inverted trough of low pressure extended from a surface
low over northeast NM into south central NEB. Southerly flow and good
insolation has kept a very warm airmass across much of the forecast
area. Although moisture return has been limited to a narrow axis
along the inverted trough axis.

For tonight through Tuesday night, the weak upper disturbance with
the surface boundary in the area should provide enough vertical
motion for off an on shower activity. The showers have been
weakening this afternoon, but are expected to redevelop this evening
as the low level jet and warm air advection pattern picks back up.
Overall instability and mid level lapse rates are pretty marginal so
strong thunderstorms are unlikely. Looks like there may be a break
in the shower activity Tuesday afternoon and evening with the wave
moving east of the area. But renewed warm air advection and
isentropic lift could cause popcorn showers to form Wednesday
morning.

Better chances for showers and storms are forecast for Friday as
models show a better defined shortwave lifting through the central
plains. The NBM seems to handle this well. By early next week models
try to bring another upper trough out of the western U.S. However
ensembles show spread in the potential outcomes increases quite a
lot by this time. So with lower predictability, have stuck with the
NBM/WPC forecast. In short the overall pattern keeps the mean
westerlies across the northern tier of the country. This favors
above normal temps with occasional precip chances to continue
through the end of this week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 621 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Conditions looks to deteriorate somewhat during this forecast, with
greatest potential for cigs into the MVFR range and some -SHRA at
MHK where moisture and forcing are the highest. Slowed onset of this
somewhat though overall confidence in timing and persistence of
limiting conditions is low.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wolters
AVIATION...Poage