182
FXUS63 KTOP 291034
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
534 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Late season heat continues in the forecast through the upcoming
week. Highs in the middle to upper 90s, heat indices near 100 each
afternoon. No headlines planned, but the length of  the stretch
bears watching.

- Overnight lows mainly in the upper 70s put record warm lows
on watch for Sunday through Tuesday.

- Rain chances minimal through Tuesday. A flatter ridge later in the
week may allow a few storms over far northern Kansas, but no single
day stands out as more probable than another right now.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

The 00Z RAOB sampling and WV imagery show a strong ridge over the
Four Corners with its axis extending into the central Plains. The
Westerlies remain displaced generally across the northern Plains and
southern Canada. The Great Lakes trough drifts east while the
Pacific trough digs into the Pacific Northwest. Mid level WV over
Kansas is generally dry with overall subsidence in place. The
monsoonal moist plume continues to stream across central California
into the northern Plains. Surface high pressure ridge has slid into
the Ohio Valley, with lee troughing continuing to deepen over
eastern Colorado and western Kansas with low level flow returning
from the south. The warm advection regime is underway for more warm
and humid conditions.

Today, south winds reach to around 15 to 20 mph with gusts
approaching 30 mph by afternoon and stay gusty into Monday as mid
level southwesterly flow strengthen. H85 temperatures climb from the
middle 20s C today to the upper 20s C Sunday. Forecast soundings
continue to exhibit inverted V structure with a deep dry mixed layer,
and that mixing caps dewpoints in the low to middle 60s while highs
reach the middle to upper 90s. Peak heat indices land near 100,
highest Sunday and Monday. Triple digits may be reached for highs
across portions of north central Kansas, likely at Concordia Sunday
and still possible Monday, with the Kansas River valley areas a few
degrees cooler. Warm overnight lows give Topeka and Concordia a
decent chance of holding near 80 Monday morning against a record warm
low in the upper 70s, and several records are in play through
Tuesday. Heat indices continue to remain just shy of advisory
criteria, so no headlines for now. Duration into a fifth and sixth
day is what we will be the primary potential hazard but acclimation
to the heat this late in the season is high.

The ridge flattens early next week. Mid level heights generally
lower through Tuesday as the Pacific trough ejects across the
northern Plains, and the trailing front sags toward the Nebraska
border Sunday night into Monday and effectively washes out.
Ensembles keep trending drier across the area with the weak areas of
ascent remaining north of the area with with minor shortwaves
rippling through the upper flow. So, expect rain chances hold very
low through Tuesday and no meaningful relief from the weak boundary.
The ridge amplifies later in the week and highs stay in the middle
90s with heat indices near 100 through at least Thursday. Any storms
would ride the northern edge of the ridge as mesoscale systems, and
slight chances Thursday and Friday over far northern Kansas cover
that. High confidence in the temperature trend, low confidence in any
one day of storms.

Ensemble height spreads widen beyond Thursday, and the NBM trends
cooler with highs back into the lower 90s Saturday and upper 80s by
Sunday and Labor Day with lows possibly back in the 60s. Any
meaningful precipitation chance remains to be seen at this point.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 527 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

VFR conditions persist through the period. LLWS conditions have
remained marginal early this morning. Expect that an hour or two
after sunrise the BL will begin to mix some of these stronger winds
to the surface. South winds gust into the mid 20kt range this
morning through much of the afternoon period due to both mixing and
the strengthening of the lee trough.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 145 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Record highest minimum temperature information:

                          Record                 Forecast
August 30  Topeka     79, set in 1932               76
           Concordia  78, set in 1951               78


August 31  Topeka     77, set in 1912 and 1947      78
           Concordia  81, set in 1947               78


September 1 Topeka     81, set in 2011              78
            Concordia  80, set in 1913              77

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Drake
AVIATION...Drake
CLIMATE...Drake/Poage