350
FXUS63 KTOP 110757
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
257 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold front sweeps across Kansas today. Gusty southerly winds will
be expected ahead of the front with winds shifting out of the
north/northwest behind the front.

- A few storms may develop along the front in the mid to late
afternoon across far east-central and southeastern Kansas. Large
hail and damaging winds are the main hazards with any storms that
are able to develop.

- Pleasant Friday before rain and storm chances return by the
weekend. Multiple rounds of rain falling over areas that have seen
excessive rain over the past several days may lead to flooding.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Mid-level water vapor imagery this morning shows remnants of
yesterday evening`s convection with more convection deepening along
the nose of the LLJ across southern Nebraska. Further west, the main
mid-level shortwave axis is noted over the Wyoming basin and
beginning to eject off the central Rockies. The persistent vorticity
advection has aided the deepening of a 991mb lee cyclone over
southeast Colorado with tightening pressure gradients extending
across Kansas. For the remainder of the morning, the surface low
will be shunted east across Kansas and southeast Nebraska, deepening
further as it does so. Very gusty conditions can be expected ahead
of the surface cyclone with some areas flirting with wind advisory
criteria. The frontal boundary quickly passes through much of eastern
Kansas by noon today. By the later afternoon hours, low-level
inhibition may erode enough to get a storm or two along the front in
far east-central KS. Confidence in this occurring is currently low
given the speed of the front and warm air aloft that parcels will
need to compete with to become organized. If a storm can develop and
strengthen, damaging winds and large hail would become a brief
concern before storms race off towards Missouri. Behind the frontal
boundary`s passage, gusty north/northwest winds will become evident
and help to usher in slightly cooler and drier air in from the north
by Friday. Most areas this afternoon should top out in the mid to
upper 80s with a few 90s possible across far east-central KS where
those areas will reside in the warm sector of the cyclone into the
afternoon hours.

Surface ridging builds in overnight Thursday and into Friday,
providing a break from the heat and storms for a brief period.
Expect Friday afternoon to be a fairly nice summer day with mostly
sunny skies, light winds and afternoon temperatures in the low to
mid 80s. The pattern quickly changes by Friday night in to Saturday
morning as the 850mb ridge axis slides east of Kansas and returns
low-level flow back from the south. With quasi-zonal flow aloft
providing persistent PVA beginning Friday night into Saturday
morning, rain and storm chances will become likely for much of the
day. The first wave of heavy rain and thunderstorms comes within a
broad area of isentropic ascent associated with the morning LLJ
Saturday morning into midday. By the afternoon, troughing
approaching from the northern Rockies will help to sag a frontal
boundary across east-central and southeastern KS. A few stronger to
marginally severe storms may be possible along the boundary by the
afternoon Saturday, generally across east-central KS, but it seems
that heavy rainfall will be the main focus for most areas. With low-
level convergence/confluence along the surface and low-level
boundaries, ample theta-e advection overriding the boundary and
support aloft, a heavy rain and flooding concerns may become
realized. Efficient rainfall rates across east-central and southeast
KS will be expected given PWATs ranging from 1.5-2" through the day
Saturday. Ensemble guidance is beginning to become more confident in
this region seeing heavy rainfall Saturday with the NBM
probabilities of greater than 2 inches at 50-60% for areas south and
east of the turnpike and greater than 3 inches between 30-40%. The
LREF is slightly less optimistic in higher rainfall totals given the
lower resolution in ensemble members, but does give areas east of
Topeka a 70-80% chance of seeing rainfall totals exceeding 1 inch
(40-70% for areas from MHK to TOP).

Heavy rain comes to an end as we head into Sunday as mid-level
subsidence and surface riding slide in from the northwest. Sunday
will see some of the coolest temperatures of the week as highs top
out in the mid 70s under mostly cloudy skies and light northerly
winds. Low-end chances for precipitation can be expected through
early next week as several weak waves advect over the central
Plains. Additionally, increasing mid-level heights should slowly
warm temperatures back into the mid to upper 80s through the week so
do not expect the below-average temperatures Sunday and Monday to
continue!

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

TAFs will remain a wind-driven forecast period as a strong 60-80
knot low-level jet at 2-3kft spreads across the terminals overnight.
Kept out mention of LLWS as the boundary layer will stay fairly
mixed and unidirectional as one ascends through the lowest 2kft.
Cannot rule out some fairly strong turbulent mixing though. A strong
cold front passes through the region late Thursday morning into the
early afternoon with very gusty winds ahead and behind the boundary.
Expect a strong wind shift to the north/northwest behind the
boundary. Confidence is low in storm development along the boundary
so kept out mention at this time. Better chances of storm development
stay south and east. Winds should decrease around 7 pm Thursday
evening as the BL decouples and pressure gradients weaken with
surface ridging building in from the northwest.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Griesemer
AVIATION...Griesemer