948
FXUS63 KTOP 151928
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
228 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat indices up to 105-108 degrees remain possible late this
  afternoon across east-central and portions of northeast Kansas
  where cloud cover breaks occur. The Extreme Heat Warning has been
  trimmed to maintain these areas.

- Storms are likely (50-70%) overnight, possibly weakening as
  they move east. Damaging winds and heavy rain remain possible,
  with a shift into southern areas not out of the question.

- Relief from the heat arrives Sunday and Monday with highs in
  the 80s as a surface ridge expands into the area.

- Rain chances (30% or less) return periodically through next
  week, though confidence in timing remains low. Heat may
  rebuild by next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

The Westerlies remain displaced north of the area with a quasi-zonal
flow pattern holding across the central Plains through much of the
period. The stationary boundary draped across the CWA, essentially
through Brown County back through Manhattan and then into central
Kansas, continues to serve as the focus for both the heat gradient
today and storm chances tonight.

For the remainder of this afternoon, cloud cover remains the
deciding factor on heat. Lingering debris clouds have kept most
north central areas from approaching extreme heat criteria, and the
warning has been cancelled there. East-central and portions of
northeast Kansas still have the best chance at heat index values up
to around 105-108 degrees if late day breaks in the cloud cover
allow temperatures to recover generally along and southeast of the
boundary.

Storms congeal over eastern Colorado into western Kansas this
evening and work east across the area overnight, supported by a weak
convectively enhanced vort max aloft and weak isentropic ascent
along the 310K surface after midnight into the early morning hours.
The primary LLJ focuses southeast of the area and veers into the
overnight, which argues against sustained upscale growth locally.
Poor mid-level lapse rates and a more stable boundary layer with
eastward extent should limit efficient momentum transfer from cold
pools to the surface, allowing updrafts to become less robust as
storms progress east. The exception appears to be along and south of
the stationary boundary, where sufficient DCAPE lingers. If storms
take a more southerly track, damaging winds and heavy rain would
remain possible mainly across southern portions of the forecast area
before activity fully weakens and shifts east early Sunday morning.

Behind the departing boundary, surface high pressure expands south
into the area Monday, trimming both temperatures and dewpoints with
highs mostly in the 80s Sunday and Monday. How long the relief lasts
is the main question for the upcoming week, as the boundary wavers
back north into Tuesday and ensemble temperature spreads remain wide
through midweek. Heat index values in the 90s look common even in
the cooler scenarios. Periodic shower and storm chances continue
with the quasi-zonal regime, but unless a more amplified trough can
dig this far south, confidence in any single period remains low and
POPs hold around 30 percent or lower through the long range.
The upper pattern suggests another western ridge amplifies into next
weekend, which would open the door to heat rebuilding across the
region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

VFR conditions this afternoon with mainly SCT mid clouds in place. A
stationary boundary may show slight movement south through the
afternoon. Even with a wind shift to the north by late afternoon into
early evening, expect that winds remain generally below 10kts.
Uncertainty remains at this time with any storms forming over western
Kansas and moving east overnight. Have gone with a PROB30 group at
each site due to the level of uncertainty. Some short-term guidance
tracks much of the activity north of the terminals but with the
location of the boundary by end of day this may change slightly
further south as well.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ024-KSZ026-
KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Drake
AVIATION...Drake