651
FXUS63 KTOP 092319
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
619 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and dry weather persists through Monday.

- Rain and thunderstorm chances increase Tuesday through Thursday of
next week as cold front stalls somewhere nearby. Uncertainty still
high for this period.

- Cooler temperatures behind front for latter part of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 137 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

Water vapor imagery indicates a deepening upper low digging into the
Pacific Northwest, with strong upper ridging dominating much of the
rest of the CONUS. Elsewhere, Hurricane Isaias is nearing landfall
on the Florida Panhandle. All the latent heat release with Isaias is
helping to strengthen the ridging over the Midwest and Great Lakes,
amplifying and slowing the overall pattern. So we will continue to
see hot and dry weather through the weekend as the upper low deepens
and mostly becomes cut off over the southwestern CONUS. Highs
approach 90 each afternoon with overnight lows mainly in the 60s.
Monday still looks to be the warmest day as WAA and moisture
advection strengthen in advance of the upper low as it begins to
shift east. Highs in the low 90s and lows near 70 will both be near
record values. (See Climate section.)

Tuesday into Thursday, uncertainty significantly increases. High
pressure over the Northern Plains will push a cold front southward
towards the area Monday night and Tuesday. There is significant
spread in guidance in how far south this front will get before it
stalls. Behind the front, temperatures should stay in the upper 60s
and 70s, while ahead of the front will be another very warm day near
or above 90. A few stronger storms could also occur along and ahead
of the front as it presses southeast. By Wednesday and Thursday, the
front will lift back north as a warm front as the Southwest upper
low moves northeast across the Plains. High uncertainty is also
present as to how this system will evolve. Some recent guidance
keeps the upper low a lot weaker and slower as a northern stream
shortwave over western Canada fails to dig southeast and interact
with the original upper low. Other guidance still has a stronger and
more negatively tilted trough that would be more favorable for some
sort of regional severe threat. At any rate, we should see rain and
storm chances increase whenever the system does shift east across
the area. Just tough to pinpoint any specific area or time given the
current uncertainty. Behind the system, still expecting cooler
temperatures to arrive for the end of next week as high pressure
moves across the Midwest. The degree of that cooler air is still in
question though, given the aforementioned uncertainty in the overall
pattern evolution.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 615 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

VFR conditions prevail under clear skies. Decided to add mention of
LLWS for the overnight hours into early morning. Although it is
marginal and driven by speed shear and not so much directional shear,
felt there was enough in the short-term guidance and forecast
soundings to suggest sfc winds would become light enough under the
strengthening inversion. By mid to late morning, sfc winds then
become breezy with 20-25 kt gusts for most of the afternoon.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 213 AM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

Record high information for October 9:

                Current Record           Forecast
--------------------------------------------------
Topeka         92, set in 1954              89
Concordia      91, set in 1921 and 2020     90

Record warm low information for October 12:

                Current Record           Forecast
--------------------------------------------------
Topeka         68, set in 1899              70
Concordia      67, set in 1975              67

Record high information for October 12:

                Current Record           Forecast
--------------------------------------------------
Topeka         93, set in 2024              92
Concordia      93, set in 1899              91

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Reese
AVIATION...Picha
CLIMATE...Poage/Reese