653
FXUS63 KTOP 301905
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
205 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and evening
  with damaging winds and large hail.

- A conditional risk for severe storms remains for late Sunday
  afternoon and evening. If storms develop, large hail and damaging
  winds are possible.

- Low precipitation chances linger for much of next week with
  seasonable temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 205 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Scattered convection continues at midday in east-central Kansas in
broadly-diffluent though modest southwest mid/upper level flow in
persistent isentropic lift under easterly surface flow. This lift
should slowly dissipate into early Sunday as southerly winds return
near the surface and upper heights rise. The main area of attention
over the later afternoon today remains to be to the southwest where
a dryline is sharpening. Forcing here remains largely limited to
convergence along the dryline with the main upper wave displaced to
the northwest. ML CAPE was already around 3000 J/kg at 18Z ahead of
the dryline and will continue to increase northeast with time and
space into the evening. Deep-layer shear continues to look less than
ideal for supercells, so most CAMS congealing storms into at least a
broken line as they move northeast seems on track. Wind gusts may
the be primary threat this far northeast with DCAPE values
potentially around 1200 J/kg into the early evening, though some
large hail could still occur. Most of the severe threat should be to
the east by midnight, but some continued WAA convection may linger
overnight. A somewhat to very unstable airmass with somewhat
stronger shear will likely remain in place Sunday and Monday though
forcing for ascent is hard to find. Generally-weak low-level flow
Sunday could leave outflow boundaries around for some focus with the
main time of storm concern from late afternoon to late evening.

Weak upper riding looks to take hold from the central Plains
northeast into central Canada for the middle portions of next week,
keeping precipitation chances somewhat reduced and slightly favoring
central Kansas over eastern Kansas. Highs in the 80s and lows in the
60s should dominate this forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1203 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Challenging forecast with rounds of convection in the area
continuing at this writing. Enough consistency for a PROB TS mention
very early at TOP and FOE. More robust convection remains to be
anticipated in the 02Z-06Z window which may be followed by some
limiting stratus around 12Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Poage
AVIATION...Poage