181
FXUS63 KTOP 010928
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
328 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Cloudy and mild today.

-A strong system brings potential for severe thunderstorms Monday.

-Cooler and drier weather then expected through the middle of next
 week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 321 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

The synoptic pattern across the CONUS early this morning shows an
amplified trough axis associated with mid-level low pressure off the
coast of northern California, and broad southwest flow with moisture
transport across the Four Corners and toward the southern/central
High Plains. Shortwave energy is moving to the east of the area.
Stratus looks to hold over the area today but southerly flow and low
level WAA ahead of the west coast system will allow for some warming
to near 70 degrees. WAA and divergence aloft could be enough lift
for a few light rain showers today, but will keep chances low.

The western system will quickly progress eastward, inducing lee
cyclogenesis this evening and tonight. POPs increase tonight and
Monday morning from west to east with an initial area of PVA ahead
of the main trough axis. A 50 to 60 kt LLJ sets up tonight and sfc
winds begin to increase as the pressure gradient increases. Gusts
pick up as boundary layer mixing commences Monday morning, with some
40 to 45 mph gusts possible throughout the day. Instability will
increase slightly with moisture advection, but overall instability
still appears fairly limited at less than 1000 J/kg along and ahead
of an approaching front. Shear parameters still look impressive.
HREF has effective shear around 50 kts and low level plenty of SRH
to support rotating updrafts. With ample shear and forcing, the
severity of storms that develop in central KS later in the day will
largely depend on the amount of instability present. Still,
confidence is good in at least some initial supercells that will be
capable of damaging wind and a few tornadoes. Storm mode may favor
more clusters or linear segments eastward with a damaging wind threat
continuing. The severe threat should diminish toward the MO state
line as instability wanes during the late evening hours.

Models agree more on the mid-level low becoming cutoff over the area
on Tuesday, possibly keeping some wet weather around, especially as
the low pivots to the north and east. Eventually, high pressure
moves in as the low approaches the Great Lakes, bringing a more
seasonable cool and dry air mass to northeast Kansas. Lows are
expected to be in the 40s with highs in the 60s through mid and late
week. POPs then increase again next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Sun Nov 1 2026

A few lingering showers or some drizzle could continue at the TOP
sites for the first few hours of this TAF period. CIGs then drop to
MVFR at KTOP/KFOE and to IFR at KMHK. Slow improvement is expected
midday and this afternoon. A brief period of VFR is expected toward
the end of this period before lower CIGS build back in.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Teefey
AVIATION...Teefey