386
FXUS63 KTOP 020908
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
308 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Strong and severe thunderstorms could occur late this afternoon and
 evening. Damaging wind and a few tornadoes are the main concerns.

-Gusty winds of 40 to 45 mph expected today.

-Temperatures trend cooler into the middle of the week, but remain
 seasonable.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 302 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Severe weather, including damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes,
remains a concern for this afternoon and evening as a well
advertised strong system approaches from the west. At 08Z today,
water vapor imagery showed a deep mid-level trough stretching from
central Montana into the Four Corners region, and a corridor of high
water vapor content into western KS and the Northern Plains within
the southwest flow ahead of the trough axis. H5 and H7 VWP at DDC
sampled a 50+ kt jet. Sfc low pressure was noted over the far
northeast Colorado and southwest Nebraska stateline, and a cold
front trailing to the south. Morning and midday impacts from this
system as it progresses east-northeast will be increasing sfc winds
and an initial round or two of rain. Sfc gusts quickly pick up this
morning and are likely to reach 40 to 45 mph through midday. A batch
of rain will also move west to east through the area this morning,
reaching far eastern KS around 18Z. Showers may mix down stronger
winds aloft, but severe weather is not expected until later in the
day.

Moisture advection increases dew points into the upper 60s ahead of
the cold front this afternoon, but mixed layer instability still
appears to be limited by cloud cover and is expected to remain less
than 1000 J/kg. However, given the strong wind field associated with
this system, the environment within the warm sector will consist of
around 50 kts of effective shear and 200+ m2/s2 of 0-3 km SRH. So,
by mid-afternoon, more robust thunderstorm development is expected
in central/south-central KS. Any initial discrete supercells could
quickly evolve into clusters or line segments as they quickly race
north-northeast, and eventually into far eastern KS this evening.
The tornado threat will be greatest where storms can remain discrete,
but there is also at least a low probability of QLCS spin-ups given
the magnitude of the bulk shear parameters. Damaging winds will also
be a concern, especially with bowing line segments. It is also worth
mentioning the heavy rainfall potential with pwats expected to exceed
the daily max of 1.4 inches, however fast storm motion should limit
the flooding threat. The severe threat should then diminish into the
late evening hours as instability wanes.

The cold front doesn`t entirely move through the area until midday
Tuesday with the upper low spinning over the area. A few lingering
showers are possible and temperatures will trend cooler and more
seasonable into the middle of the week. Even so, nighttime
temperatures look to remain above freezing for the foreseeable
future, and POPs remain less than 10 percent until this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1115 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Multiple aviation hazards are expected this period as a strong
system impacts the area. MVFR CIGS and gusty winds settle in
overnight. Gusts increase during the daylight hours and could
approach 35 kts at times. A few rounds of rain/storms are also
anticipated, the first of which could impact terminals during the
morning into midday. A stronger round of storms are then expected
Monday evening.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Teefey
AVIATION...Reese/Teefey