773
FXUS63 KTOP 170539
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1239 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The workweek is expected to start off dry with near normal
  temperatures.

- There is a chance for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday night and
  again Wednesday night.

- Tuesday looks to be the hottest day this week. Otherwise mild
  temperatures are forecast stick with around to end the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

19Z water vapor imagery and profiler data show the morning MCV has
moved east of the area while surface obs had the frontal boundary
slowly moving south across east central KS. The larger pattern still
has a broad flat upper ridge across the southern U.S. with a handful
of waves to the north.

Through Tuesday models show a west to northwest flow over the
central plains. The latest RAP/NAM tend to track any convectively
induced vort make from the high plains south of the forecast through
Monday morning. Otherwise there isn`t a strong signal of forcing
that impacts the forecast area. So unless a stray shower pops this
afternoon, dry weather is expected to stick around through the
beginning of the workweek. The NBM has been slow to catch onto the
dryer dewpoints with the surface ridge and have used more of the
consensus of the short term models for the dewpoint forecast. This
should keep a little bit of a dryer airmass across the area through
Monday as the surface ridge passes through the area. Think the dry
air should also bring some clearing skies tonight as winds become
light setting up a good radiational cooling situation. Lows in the
60s that are 3 to 5 degrees below current dewpoint temps could allow
for some patchy fog to develop by sunrise Monday. Decent insolation
and a gradual return to southerly low level winds are expected to
help push afternoon highs into the middle 80s for most locations
Monday. A little stronger low level warm air advection is progged
for Tuesday and have highs from around 90 to the middle 90s.

The synoptic pattern is expected to amplify during the back half of
the workweek with shortwave energy somewhat subtle. Still
operational solutions continue to show a signal for nocturnal
showers and storms Tuesday night and again Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. The NBM seems to favor the chances for precip
Tuesday night, but the GFS and ECMWF show a better shortwave trough
axis clipping northeast KS with some decent QPF. I would expect that
once the NBM gets the 12Z data that precip chances would increase
for the Wednesday night and Thursday morning time frame. The
consensus has another weak frontal boundary sliding south of the
area Wednesday and Thursday. This should keep highs in the 80s.

By Friday and for the weekend, the model consensus is for the upper
ridge to strengthen over the intermountain west with northwest flow
across the central plains. The main differences from the cluster
analysis seems to be the amplitude of the pattern. For the sensible
weather, the question is whether the forecast area is under the
influence of surface ridging from the Upper Midwest with an easterly
low level wind or are southerly winds able to advect hotter air into
northeast KS. It`s hard to take the GFS with its bias of over mixing
the boundary layer and being to hot by 10+ degrees. And the GFS may
account for a large part of the spread seen in the long range
ensemble forecast. Based on the ECMWF and Canadian, the forecast
temps from the NBM look plausible for now. Precip chances within the
more amplified pattern will be more dependent on mesoscale features
and the blend generally has chances at less than 20 percent.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

With clear skies overhead and very light or calm winds taking place,
think the signal for shallow fog overnight into sunrise remains valid
and have maintained that mention at all TAF sites. Will monitor for
adjustments to timing and flight categories as needed. Otherwise,
winds stay light and variable throughout the period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wolters
AVIATION...Picha