461
FXUS63 KTOP 100915
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
315 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A windy day today as gusts up to 35 mph continue through early
afternoon. Some areas in far northeast KS could see gusts up to 40-
45 mph through 9 AM this morning.

- Temperatures rebound Thursday before another shot of cold air
moves in by the weekend. Highs will struggle to get above the 30s,
especially Sunday.

- The forecast remains dry with any chance for precipitation
  staying north of the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 314 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

Mid-level water vapor imagery this morning shows a compact low
tracking into the northern Midwest with northwesterly flow situated
from the central Plains to the PNW. The passage of the
aforementioned upper low has pushed a strong 991mb low towards Lake
Michigan with a tight pressure gradient and surface trough extending
west all the way into southeastern Kansas. A frontal boundary has
made its way across the forecast area in northeast KS with gusty
winds filtering in from the northwest through this morning. Expect
windy conditions to exist across the area through the early
afternoon with some areas across far northeastern KS gusting upwards
to 40-45 mph. Temperatures this afternoon should get to near-normal
values as mostly sunny skies and afternoon mixing warms the area
into the mid 40s; warmer southwest and cooler towards northeast KS.
Clouds begin to increase by this evening as some remnant mid-level
vorticity advects into Nebraska behind the main shortwave. Could see
some sprinkles/flurries across far northern KS, but chances remain
below 10% at this time with better precipitation chances staying
north. Low-level flow returns to the south by Thursday helping to
provide a brief warm up into the 50s by the afternoon with some
across central KS seeing some 60s!

The warmth does not last long as the next lobe of vorticity embedded
in the northwesterly flow ejects off the WY rockies Thursday night
and brings air from Canada into KS for the weekend. Although any
precipitation chances remain north across Iowa and Nebraska, expect
high temperatures Friday and Saturday in the upper 30s and low 40s.
By Sunday morning, the arctic 1040mb canadian high pushes into Iowa
and plummets temperatures into the low teens and upper single
digits. Temperatures will rebound a bit Sunday as highs top out in
the low to mid 20s in far northeast KS and upper 20s and low 30s
closer to central KS. Luckily, temperatures rebound back into the
upper 40s and 50s by early next week as WAA returns as the arctic
air pushes towards the East Coast.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 956 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

Winds continue to be the main aviation concern with VFR forecast
otherwise. A cold front is on its way from southern Nebraska and
will shift winds to the NW early in the period. LLWS remains a
possibility for the first few hours with a 45-50 kt LLJ
overhead. The stronger push of gusty winds should arrive
overnight with 25-35 kt gusts remaining persistent through the
morning hours. There should be a gradual decrease through the
afternoon, eventually falling below 10 kts in the late afternoon
and becoming light and variable by the end of the period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for KSZ011-KSZ012.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Griesemer
AVIATION...Picha