519
FXUS63 KTOP 261657
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1157 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Patchy dense fog could occur for a few hours early this morning.

-Dry weather and near average temperatures are expected for the rest
 of this week.

-Warmer conditions settle back in this weekend with breezy south
 winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Conditions are favorable for at least patchy fog development early
this morning, however, cirrus clouds from an MCS in southwest KS
could prevent widespread dense fog formation. Any fog that develops
should burn off by 15Z and then we will be left with sunny skies and
light north winds as a sfc ridge moves in behind a cold front.
Temperatures should top out around 90 degrees this afternoon with
slightly lower dew points than the last few afternoons. Tonight, a
mid-level shortwave will move over southwest KS. An associated
complex of storms could clip central portions of the state early
tomorrow morning, and a few CAMs show isolated storms developing
along a theta-e/instability gradient in central KS that may briefly
impact locations in and around Ottawa and Dickinson Counties.

The sfc ridge keeps conditions dry on Thursday. Temperatures will start
off in the low 60s and warm into the mid to upper 80s during the
afternoon. Winds will again be light throughout the day. Similar
conditions are expected on Friday as the ridge moves east and a sfc
trough deepens in the Front Range. Stronger southerly flow and an
expanding mid-level ridge over the area will allow temperatures to
quickly warm this weekend. Highs will be well into the 90s Saturday
and Sunday with heat index values around 100 degrees. South-
southwest winds will be breezy, gusting 25 to 30 mph each afternoon.

The probability for thunderstorms will also increase late this
weekend, especially in far northern and north-central KS with a sfc
boundary draped across the area. The boundary looks to stay
positioned across northern Kansas and southeastern Nebraska through
the first half of next week, which will keep at least low chance
POPs in the forecast each afternoon/evening. Temperatures also stay
hot moving into the start of September.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1155 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

VFR at terminals as north winds sustain from 5 to 8 kts through the
forecast period. Despite the drier sfc airmass moving in this
evening, there is a slight indication from forecast soundings of
patchy fog forming in the river valley at KTOP. Decided not to add
at this time, but will need to revisit later this evening.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Teefey
AVIATION...22