901
FXUS63 KTOP 091739
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1139 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold temperatures will stick around through Monday.

- A quick rebound for highs back into the 60s is expected by Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 204 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

A closed upper low remained north of the Great Lakes per the 08Z
water vapor imagery. One shortwave was noted swinging through the
middle MS river valley as a second shortwave dug south over the
northern plains. Surface obs show the cold front had pushed all the
way into LA with much colder and dry air building into the central
plains.

The RAP shows some weak mid level frontogenesis passing over the
area now with some very light radar returns. These sprinkles/flurries
should exit the area before sunrise this morning leaving continued
cold and dry air advection in place today. It will be breezy as north
winds gust to around 30 mph. The limited moisture should preclude
any chances for precip today, even with the shortwave upstream. And
the low clouds are forecast to eventually scatter out by late
morning. The sunshine doesn`t look to be enough to overcome the
continued cold air advection and highs are expected to only be in the
middle 30s to near 40 today. Lows tonight will be some of the
coldest so far this fall with readings in the upper teens and around
20.

Quiet weather is forecast for Monday through Friday as northwest
flow transitions to upper ridging by the end of the week. A weak
boundary is progged to pass through on Tuesday as shortwave energy
stays north of the area. This should not have much impact on
sensible weather due to limited moisture. Monday will again be on
the cold side as surface ridging passes over the area. After that,
the pattern favors a nice rebound in temps with highs back into the
60s and even some 70s by the end of the week. Ensembles and the NBM
show little spread in the forecast through next week, so confidence
in the forecast is good.

By next weekend, operational solutions show the potential for an
upper system to move out into the plains. There are differences in
timing and strength of this upper trough among the operational
solutions. Unfortunately cluster analysis of the 12Z ensembles shows
there isn`t a strong signal for one solution over the others. Each
of the operational solutions from the GFS/ECMWF/Canadian have about
the same chance of occurring as the other. So the blended forecast of
the NBM is a reasonable start for now, with some small chance POPs
late Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1127 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

Scattered to broken stratocu will continue this afternoon with
ceilings/bases above 3000 feet. Skies will become clear after
sunset. North-northwest winds of 12 to 15 KTS with gusts of 18
to 22 KTS will diminish late this afternoon to under 10 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 204 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

High fire danger is expected this afternoon with north winds in the
15 to 20 mph range and gusts up to 30 mph. RH values are expected to
fall into the 25 to 35 percent range this afternoon. With fuels
drying out, any fires that start could be difficult to control.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wolters
AVIATION...Gargan
FIRE WEATHER...Wolters