912
FXUS63 KTOP 092019
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
219 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Strong northwest winds develop behind a cold front tonight. Gusts
 to near 45 mph are possible in far northeast KS.

-Temperatures fluctuate from above normal to below normal and back
 again through the end of the week.

-The weekend looks much colder, but snow stays north of the
 area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 216 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

Today, a clipper system is moving across the northern high plains
while northwest flow persists aloft. Temperatures have warmed well
into the 50s and low 60s across the area this afternoon with breezy
southwest winds and WAA. Tonight, a cold front associated with the
low to our north will quickly work through northeast KS. Northwest
winds behind the boundary will increase to near wind advisory
criteria (gusts of 40 to 45 mph), especially in far northeast KS.
There has not been great agreement between HREF, LREF and NBM in
meeting/exceeding criteria. HREF is the more confident solution in
exceeding 45 mph gusts, and have noticed that the 90th percentile of
NBM has increased slightly. But for now, have held off issuing an
advisory with confidence not quiet high enough. Later shifts will re-
evaluate and may need to consider at least adding far northeast KS
to the advisory issued by neighboring offices. A few of the high
resolution models also show light QPF near the front this
evening and tonight. However, forecast soundings show a 5kft
layer of dry air beneath the cloud deck, so any precip is likely
to evaporate before reaching the ground.

Surface high pressure builds in tomorrow so temperatures will
be closer to normal in the mid 40s for highs. Gusty winds will
decrease during the afternoon as the low moves further east,
away from the region. The forecast remains dry through the rest
of the workweek with another in a series of clipper systems
staying north and east of the CWA on Thursday. Southerly winds
return on Thursday, allowing temperatures to warm back into the
mid 50s and low 60s. The next cold front moves through with that
second clipper system Thursday night. High pressure will
control our conditions through the weekend, keeping temps cooler
than average, especially by Sunday when a reinforcing round of
cold weather moves in. Lows Sunday morning could be in the
single digits with highs Sunday afternoon only in the 20s.
Another batch of snow again stays north of the area this
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1138 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

Wind is the main aviation hazard this period. Breezy southwest
winds will occur this afternoon ahead of a cold front that is
expected to shift winds to the northwest tonight. A period of
LLWS is expected along and behind the boundary as a 50 kt LLJ
moves overhead. Surface winds will then increase again early
Wednesday with gusts to 30 kts possible through Wednesday
morning.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Teefey
AVIATION...Teefey