781
FXUS63 KTOP 060533
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1233 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and storms continue across the area overnight. The
  severe potential is low, but storms could produce gusty winds
  and locally heavy rainfall.

- Storms develop again Thursday night. Locally heavy rainfall is
  possible with this round as well.

- Heat builds once again into and through this weekend lasting
  into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

The primary upper level features remain slow to evolve over the
CONUS with a broad cyclonic flow regime in place stretching from the
Great Lakes back through the northern Rockies. Over the Desert
Southwest a weak anticyclone remains with subtropical moist plume
noted across northern Mexico into the Baja region. Across the local
area, a weak modified frontal boundary has very slowly been being
pushed southeast across the area by a weak upper level shortwave
rounding the base of the broader cyclonic flow.

This frontal zone remain the focus for much of the next 12 to 18 hrs
across the area. A few breaks in the clouds have resulted this
afternoon and overall the low ceilings have lifted through the day
with general warming of the BL and then also slightly drier air
slowly being advected into the area from Nebraska well behind the
front. This should remain the trend into the overnight period.
However, a few strong to possibly a severe storm or two may be
possible over mainly east-central areas but one or two could form
along I-70 this evening into early overnight over central Kansas
areas once the LLJ becomes active. Overall, forecast soundings do
have some steep mid-level lapse rates and the shear within the layer
of instability could support a few strong storms that persist long
enough to develop hail that cold be around quarter size. Wind may
become a hazard with early storms but appears to be an overall low
risk. Brief heavy rain mainly over east-central areas may cause
areal flooding if storms are slow moving enough. At this point, not
expecting major flooding issues but not zero risk either with PW
values approaching 2 inches at across parts of east-central into far
northeast Kansas areas. This overall threat generally lasts from
this evening through part of the overnight period before the LLJ
veers and storms should then focus south and east of the area.

Thursday night and Friday morning could see more chances for showers
and storms with another weak embedded shortwave working through the
upper pattern but the base of the broader trough should shift east
with the better ascent focused east of the general area. Still, a
weak lee trough with nocturnal LLJ may support overnight showers and
embedded storms late Thursday night into early Friday morning.

The heat becomes the focus through the weekend into Monday with the
hottest days trending into Sunday/Monday. Can`t rule out later heat
headlines being needed. But right now, generally good agreement in
the western CONUS ridge spreading east into the area appears on
track. Some ensemble data suggest H85 temps from 25-30C range set up
across the area which if no storms end up moving into the area then
expect generally clear enough conditions that insolation and dry
adiabatic mixing will push surface temps to the mid to upper 90s
with dewpoints in low to mid 70s again will yield heat index values
around 103-105F degrees over at least part of the area Sunday and
Monday. Still too much uncertainty in the overall setup due to the
northeastern flank of the broader ridge could be impacted by
nocturnal storm systems moving through portions of the central
Plains into the mid and upper MS Valley regions.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

IFR to MVFR cigs hold into Thursday morning with VSBY restrictions
from TS or BR overnight. KTOP/KFOE have the best chance at seeing
periodic storms moving through while storms may remain just east
of KMHK. Looks more likely that cigs fall further at KMHK after
09z, potentially to LIFR, with some drizzle/BR reducing VSBY.
Conditions gradually improve through the day Thursday, returning
to VFR by early afternoon.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Drake
AVIATION...Flanagan