778
FXUS63 KTOP 082316
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
616 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few thunderstorms develop this afternoon along and southeast
  of Interstate 35. A storm or two could be strong to severe
  and produce hail up to 1" in diameter and 60 MPH wind gusts.

- Higher chances for showers and storms (40-75%) come Saturday
  evening and Saturday night. Gusty winds are possible with
  these showers/storms.

- Near-normal temperatures expected on Sunday before warming
  above normal Monday through the end of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 130 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

A shortwave moving through the northwest flow has produced scattered
showers for much of the day with a weak surface boundary pushing
southeast across the forecast area. Ahead of this boundary, dew
points have risen into the low to mid 50s and MLCAPE has increased
to 750-1000 J/kg. The boundary will move into this more unstable
airmass and spark isolated to scattered thunderstorm development
along and southeast of Interstate 35 this afternoon. Effective shear
of 30-35 kts would support a couple of strong to severe storms
capable of producing wind gusts up to 60 MPH and hail up to quarter
size. These storms are expected to move east of the forecast area by
6 PM, leaving dry conditions overnight into Saturday morning. On
Saturday, southwesterly low-level winds will aid in boosting
temperatures into the low 80s before a stronger shortwave and cold
front move through the area Saturday evening and Saturday night.
Additional showers and storms develop during this time, although
weak instability should limit the intensity of these storms. Steep
low-level lapse rates create inverted-V soundings that will support
some gusty winds with any showers and storms. CAMs show the potential
for a more organized cluster of storms to produce severe wind gusts
across portions of central Kansas. This stronger cluster is currently
progged to stay west of the forecast area, but it is worth monitoring
this potential.

Showers and isolated storms linger into Sunday morning before
becoming dry with clearing skies by the afternoon. A cooler airmass
will be in place behind the boundary, leading to highs near 70
degrees. Temperatures warm Monday and Tuesday as longwave troughing
shifts east and a mid-level ridge inches east towards the Plains. A
closed low is progged to dive southeast towards the Great Lakes on
Tuesday, which will push a cold front through the area. Better
moisture and ascent will be northeast of the area, but there is a
low (10-15%) chance for some showers as the front moves through.
Uncertainty increases Thursday through the end of the week. Mid-
level ridging is progged to build over the Southern and Central
Plains Thursday, but several passing waves lead to at least low
chances for showers and storms through the weekend. Timing
differences in the first wave`s ejection Thu-Fri leads to a 10-15
degree spread in NBM 25-75th percentiles for highs on Thursday. Even
so, above-normal temperatures are likely Thursday into the weekend
with increasing potential for highs to reach into the low 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 611 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

VFR at terminals as clouds clear to the southeast behind the front.
Weak northwest winds overnight gradually back to the southwest by
Saturday morning. Southerly winds increase from 10-15 kts sustained
aft 14Z. Mid clouds are anticipated to increase at all sites aft 19Z.
There is a chance for light rain showers shortly aft the forecast
period Saturday evening.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Flanagan
AVIATION...22