312
FXUS63 KTOP 042336
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
636 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lows tonight are expected to be in the lower and middle 30s with
  frost developing. Early gardeners will want to protect tender
  vegetation.

- Confidence is improving in a wintry mix or some light snow Monday
  night across far northeast Kansas. Impacts are expected to be
  minimal at this time.

- Mild and disturbed weather is forecast from mid-week into next
  weekend with chances for showers and storms each day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 205 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

19Z water vapor imagery had the upper low lifting into the Great
Lakes region with upper ridging over CA. This placed northwest flow
over the central plains. Surface obs had high pressure through the
southern high plains with the cold front from the MO bootheel to
south central TX.

For tonight through Monday, this pattern of northwest flow aloft
with high pressure at the surface is progged to persist. With little
moisture return shown in the models, dry and cool weather is
forecast to continue. Lows tonight look to drop into the lower and
middle 30s. The NBM mean for Min temps has tended to be cooler then
most other guidance including MOS guidance. The pattern of clearing
skies and light winds favors the cooler Min temp forecast over the
middle 30s from other sources, and have kept the cooler temps with
areas and widespread frost in the forecast. Since the area remains
just outside of the growing season and the hard freeze we
experienced a few weeks ago likely set back native vegetation, will
go without a headline for the frost.

Models continue to show precip developing Monday night and Tuesday
morning across far northeast KS. The 12Z guidance suggests the
return flow may be delayed, but is now focusing more on mid level
frontogenesis as the source for lift and mid level saturation for
precip. Increasing model consistency and a better signal from
ensembles across northeast KS is leading to better confidence in
this setup. Forecast soundings support a wintry mix or even some
light snow accumulations for Brown and Nemaha counties. At this
time amounts look to be light with minimal impact.

For Wednesday through Saturday, the pattern becomes a little more
favorable for disturbed weather as a frontal boundary potentially
stalls across the region while the upper pattern transitions to a
southwesterly flow. The ensembles and NBM show pretty high POPs for
Friday and Saturday as spreads increase. Looking at the cluster
analysis of the 00Z ensembles, the spread look to be mainly from
where the boundary stalls out at. But even with differing locations
to the front, each of the clusters still shows high probabilities
for precip. So the 60-80% chances look to be plausible and have not
adjusted them. Wednesday looks to be the warmest of the week with
good warm air advection from southerly low level winds. Mild weather
is progged heading into the weekend with occasional precip and cloud
cover potentially limiting sunshine.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 633 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

VFR conditions prevail as a surface high expands into the area
overnight. Conditions remain clear and calm with a slight NW
breeze increasing into the morning tomorrow.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wolters
AVIATION...Drake