210
FXUS63 KTOP 222321
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
621 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mainly dry and mild through Wednesday.

- Several chances for showers and storms late this week into the
  early weekend and again Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

Recent water vapor imagery showing upper ridging slowly building
north into the central High Plains.  Local winds beginning to show
some response to the modest surface axis nudging east over eastern
Kansas with easterly winds in much of the area. Much of the area has
seen clearing but some mid and high cloud and event an isolated
shower has kept more cloud in place in western areas.

The pattern slowly changes over the next several days with the upper
ridge building on northeast into the Missouri Valley with the
surface ridge nudging east. Moisture levels aloft will slowly
increase, with some minor isentropic lift noted around 700 mb in
central Kansas late tonight into Wednesday morning coinciding with
the beginning of the moisture increase. Instability remains very
weak but the lift could be enough for some weak showers and sided
with some of the latest CAMs over NBM for some precip mention. There
is minor concern for fog development late tonight into early
Wednesday with modest winds under little cloud tonight, though most
guidance develops stratus from northeast to southwest again tonight.
Winds of 10-15 mph in the boundary layer should help mitigate any
fog, and have left it out of the forecast.

Precipitation chances increase more notably Wednesday night into
Friday as moisture/moisture advection/weak isentropic lift increase
across the area. PW values still look to reach around 1.7 inches but
limited instability and the lack of any focusing mechanism should
keep heavy rainfall potential low. NBM and EPS showing the 90th
percentile for precipitation over 12 hours at an inch or less.
Limited mid-level lapse rates and considerable cloud along with
modest winds aloft should keep severe weather in check. Confidence
in high temperatures for these periods remains somewhat diminished
based on precipitation coverage and persistence questions though
recent trends bring a shortwave through the northern Plains Saturday
to provide drying and warming conditions.

A more progressive zonal flow regime sets up early next week with a
another wave and likely cold front Monday night into Tuesday. At
this point, severe thunderstorm potential looks low with shear again
limited.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 616 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

Confidence remains high that MVFR/IFR stratus will impact airports
again tonight. Some models also show brief, patchy fog around KMHK
overnight, but it still appears that light sfc winds should help to
prevent much development. Low CIGS look to linger longer at KMHK into Wednesday
morning, but VFR should return to all sites by late morning.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Poage
AVIATION...Teefey