946
FXUS63 KTOP 091030
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
530 AM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above-normal temperatures and dry conditions continue into
  early next week.

- Rain chances return Tuesday, with highest chances (50-65%) coming
  Tuesday night through Wednesday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 213 AM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

Broad mid-level ridging holds across the Southern CONUS into the
Central Plains early this morning as Hurricane Isaias approaches the
Gulf Coast. Temperatures at 2 AM are only a few degrees below normal
highs for this time of year, and will only cool into the low to mid
60s by daybreak. A modest tightening of the pressure gradient will
allow for slightly deeper mixing today than yesterday, resulting in
highs near-record values in the upper 80s to low 90s.

Above-normal warmth and dry conditions remain the theme into early
next week as the mid-level ridge holds across the region, sandwiched
between the remnants of Isaias as it lifts north and a potent trough
across the western US. Winds do increase this weekend with gusts of
20-35 MPH expected, highest across north central Kansas. The pattern
is still progged to change next week as the aforementioned western
trough ejects across the Plains, bringing tropical moisture from
current Hurricane Simon and Tropical Storm Rachel along with it.
Guidance continues to vary in speed of this trough, although most
ensemble members bring a front into the area by Tuesday. A weak
perturbation in the southwest flow along with frontal convergence
could be sufficient for showers and storms to form during the day
Tuesday, but the highest chances come as the trough approaches
Tuesday night through Wednesday night. PWATs are progged to be near
climatological maximums for mid October, so there is at least some
potential for locally heavy rainfall. Effective shear of around 40
kts coupled with modest instability could support a few strong
storms as well. There is plenty of time to iron out the rainfall
and severe weather details in the days ahead,so stayed tuned.
Temperatures trend back near-normal behind a cold front for the
end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 530 AM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

VFR conditions prevail. Still a low chance for some shallow fog
at KMHK/KTOP until sunrise this morning, but have kept out of TAFs.
Winds increase from the SSW late this morning with gusts around
20 kts through the afternoon before winds weaken this evening.
Marginal LLWS conditions set up overnight, but a largely unidirectional
low-level wind field supports turbulence over LLWS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 213 AM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

Record high information for October 9:

                Current Record           Forecast
--------------------------------------------------
Topeka         92, set in 1954              89
Concordia      91, set in 1921 and 2020     90

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Flanagan
AVIATION...Flanagan
CLIMATE...Flanagan/Poage