686
FXUS63 KTOP 110633
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
133 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions are expected Saturday and into next week with
  temperatures building back into the mid 90s by the late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 133 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Mostly clear skies have remained common across much of northeastern
Kansas this morning as the main low level boundaries keep storms
south of the area. An upper shortwave axis continues to slowly move
across eastern Kansas and as of 1 AM Saturday morning is near the I-
35 corridor. Subsidence on the back side of this has helped to keep
skies mostly clear and continues to aid in efficient radiative
cooling over the region. Efficient cooling may usher in some patchy
fog across far eastern Kansas around sunrise today, but not
expecting widespread concerns at this time.

For the remainder of the day today, surface high pressure will
dominate the weather pattern leading to mostly sunny skies and light
easterly winds. Highs topping out in the upper 80s will be common by
4-6 PM this afternoon. This pattern does not appear to change much
over the next several days as a large and stout dome of upper high
pressure builds across much of the central US. Strong surface
ridging will accompany the upper high and help to keep the main
surface boundary well south of the area. This will keep northeast KS
on the `cool and dry` side of the ridge with easterly winds keeping
humidity down a touch for the beginning of the week with highs
topping out in the low 90s. The pattern begins to break down a bit
as a lingering weak low pressure gets caught into the upper ridge`s
flow and retrogrades back west towards the central Plains. This
should help to return low-level flow back towards the south.
Slightly higher Tds will move north from the southern Plains by
Wednesday and Thursday and help to push temperatures closer to the
mid 90s. The southerly flow looks to persist into the weekend with
very warm 850mb temperatures overspreading the area. Diurnal mixing
bringing down this warm air may lead to temperatures nearing triple
digits by the weekend. That said, NBM 25th to 75th temperature
spreads by the weekend are still rather large, so confidence is not
overly high in triple digit afternoon temperatures yet. In addition
to the heat this upcoming week, rain/storm chances remain below 15%
for the entire forecast. Any appreciable chance for rain may only
come by the late week and weekend, but at this time, chances remain
better well south of the area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1216 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Minimal changes to the TAF with the main aviation concern being some
patchy fog in the river valley at KTOP. Other sites will not likely
see much fog development. Outside this, high pressure dominates the
region for the remainder of the period with mostly clear skies and
light northeasterly winds.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Griesemer
AVIATION...Griesemer