689
FXUS63 KTOP 102300
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
600 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorm development is possible (20-40%) across east central
  KS this evening. Storm chances should shift south after midnight.

- Dry conditions are expected Saturday and into next week with
  temperatures building back into the mid 90s by the late week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 600 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

The outflow boundary from the morning storms has pushed into Lyon,
Coffey and Anderson counties. Meanwhile the CU field along this
boundary has dissipated in what is likely general subsidence behind
the MCV over central MO. The low level jet may spark some storms this
evening along the boundary, but models show it slowly pushing south
of the area as the evening progresses. Additionally the low level jet
is progged to veer more to the west by the late evening focusing the
better convergence and lift south of the forecast area. So have kept
some chance POPs in the forecast this evening for the southern
counties. Overall confidence in storms redeveloping is marginal since
the low level jet doesn`t look very strong.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 116 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Early this morning, water vapor satellite imagery and upper air
analysis showed a low amplitude upper trough across eastern NE and
eastern KS. WV Satellite loop, shows MCV/VORT MAX over southeast NE.
A broad upper ridge extended from southern CA, east into far west
TX.

The 17Z surface map showed a cold front extending across northwest
MO, southwest across northeast KS, then southwest into northwest OK.
Elevated showers and storms continue across the northern counties,
north of CWA. These storms will not be severe with only lightning as
the only hazard.

Today through Saturday:

Later this afternoon, if temperatures warm up to around 90 degrees,
a few surface based thunderstorms may develop across northeast and
east central KS. There may be enough convergence along the boundary
combined with weak ascent around the MCV/Vort max, shifting east-
southeast across the area. MLCAPEs will be 1000-2000 J/kg and the
effective shear may increase to near 30 KTS, so a few storms may be
severe. Given DCAPEs around 1100 J/KG, isolated damaging wind gusts
will be the primary hazard, unless one of the discrete storms can
obtain mid level rotation for large hail. If Max Ts stay in the mid
80s, the CAP will probably prevent storms from developing this
afternoon. I don`t think the boundary is oriented along the mean
storm motion, so I doubt that any organized severe storm could
produce a brief and weak tornado when interacting with the surface
boundary.

This evening a complex of severe storms will develop across
southwest KS, then move east across southern KS/northern OK. This
complex of storms may produce damaging wind guest and heavy
rainfall. If the northern edge of this severe storm complex shift a
bit farther north, then the southern counties of the CWA may see the
potential for damaging wind gusts and brief heavy rainfall. Most
CAMs, show the complex of storms remaining south of the CWA.

There may be a few showers across the southeast counties Saturday
morning. The surface front will push south into northern OK. Highs
will only reach the mid to upper 80s. The H5 ridge across the
southwest US will amplify northward across the central Rockies
Saturday into Saturday night.

Saturday night through Monday:

The H5 ridge will gradually build northeast across SD and the surface
front will become stationary across northern TX. Expect dry
conditions with pleasant temperatures in the mid to upper 80s.


Monday night through Friday:

The H5 ridge, centered across SD, will slowly retrograde
southwest into western NE. High temperatures will gradually warm into
the mid 90s by the end of the workweek. Deeper mixing will keep
afternoon dewpoints in the 65-70 degree range. Therefore, heat
indicies wil only be 3 to 4 degrees higher than the ambient
temperatures. Friday afternoon may have the highest afternoon heat
indices around 100 degrees across east central KS and mid to upper
90s elsewhere across the CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 547 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

With the boundary south of the terminals and surface ridging
building into the region, VFR conditions should prevail with any TS
activity well south of the terminals. Will include some BCFG at TOP
for a good radiational cooling setup Saturday morning. Forecast
soundings show the boundary layer mixing out by 13Z so any fog should
be for a short period of time.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Wolters
DISCUSSION...Gargan
AVIATION...Wolters