545
FXUS63 KTOP 120819
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
319 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms remains for late Tuesday
  afternoon to early Tuesday evening southeast of the Kansas
  Turnpike. Confidence is decreasing that storms will develop.

- Warm temperatures dominate, with near-record values possible
  Friday and Saturday.

- Several chances for showers and storms this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 305 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Early this morning, water vapor satellite imagery showed an upper
level trough across the northern high PLains. A broad upper level
trough was located across eastern Canada, extending southward along
the coastline of the mid Atlantic States. An upper level ridge was
located across the western US.

The 7Z surface analysis showed a a cold front extending from
western, MN, southwest across north central and southwest NE, then
into northeast WY.

A second cold front was located from northern FL, west-southwest
across the western Gulf. The true Gulf moist parcels were located
across the eastern and central Gulf.


Today through Tonight:

The surface cold front will push southeast across NE this morning and
will enter north central KS by 17Z. The front will progress
southeast across the CWA through the early morning hours. Isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorms will attempt to develop along the
front late this afternoon, as the cold front reaches I-35. Several
CAMs do not show thunderstorms developing until after 00Z, when the
front moves southeast of the CWA. However if a few thunderstorms do
manage to develop late this afternoon across the southeast counties
they may become severe, given an environment with MLCAPE of 1000-1500
J/KG and effective shear of 45-50 KTS. Therefore, if storms develop
they may become sever with large hail and damaging wind gusts as the
primary hazards. The HRRR forecast soundings across the CWA late this
afternoon show a slight capping inversion between 750-700mb, thus
this may explain the lack of deep moist convection ahead of the cold
front on many of the CAM solutions. Even the HREF 2-5KM max updraft
helicity has no paintball across the southeast counties of the CWA
late this afternoon ahead of the front. My confidence now is very low
that storms will develop along the cold front across the CWA. The
norther Plains H5 trough will dig southeast into northern IA by late
evening, thus the stronger ascent will be well northeast of the CWA.
Highs Today will reach the mid to upper 80s, there`s not much cooler
air behind this front.

Wednesday through Saturday night:

The H5 ridge across the western US will shift east across the Plains
on Thursday, then the mid level flow will become zonal. Split flow
will develop with the main branch of the H5 jet across the northern
Conus and a southern stream H5 jet across northern Mexico and Texas.
AS southerly wind return residual Gulf moisture late in the week
there could be a slight chances of showers and thunderstorms Friday
and Saturday.

Wednesday looks to be the coolest day with highs in the upper 70s
and lower 80s. High temperatures on Thursday will reach the mid to
upper 80s east, with lower 90s west. Friday looks to be the warmest
day of the week with lower to mid 90s. Highs Saturday will reach the
upper 80s to lower 90s east with mid 90s west.

Sunday through Tuesday:

The extended range numerical models are in agreement with an H5
trough lifting northeast into the Plains and a surface cold front
pushing southeast across the CWA Sunday night into Monday. The CWA
may see a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms Sunday night
through midday Monday. Highs sunday within the warm sector wil reach
the lower to mid 90s.

Highs Monday and Tuesday will cool back into the upper 70s to lower
80s

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Expect VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. Southwesterly winds
will increase to 10 to 15 KTS with gusts of 15 to 25 KTS by 16Z.
Thought the afternoon winds will veer to the west, then northwest
behind a surface front by 00Z WED. Thunderstorms should develop
southeast of the KTOP and KFOE terminals late this afternoon, and
move to the southeast.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 208 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Record High Temperature for May 15

                 Record (Year)           Forecast
Topeka           95 (1944)               93
Concordia        91 (1944, 2012)         92


Record Highest Minimum Temperature for May 15

                 Record (Year)           Forecast
Topeka           71 (1977)               66
Concordia        69 (1962)               63


Record High Temperature for May 16

                 Record (Year)           Forecast
Topeka           95 (1931)               90
Concordia        93 (2019)               93

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Gargan
AVIATION...Gargan
CLIMATE...Drake/Gargan