756
FXUS63 KTOP 211724
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1224 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-A few storms could move into northern Kansas from Nebraska late
 this afternoon or this evening.

-Storms that move into the area will be capable of producing strong
 wind and small hail.

-Occasional waves in the flow aloft will keep at least slight POPs in
 the forecast at times this weekend and next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

The large mid-level ridge remains centered over the Four Corners
region with northwest flow persisting over Kansas. Prior to sunrise
this morning, a batch of storms associated with a disturbance in the
flow is impacting portions of western and southern Kansas. If the
cirrus shield associated with those storms clears over the area
before sunrise, some patchy and shallow fog could develop in the
river valleys. Fog is not expected to be as dense or widespread as
yesterday morning and should burn off quickly. Later in the day,
scattered storms that form near a surface boundary in Nebraska could
track southward toward northern Kansas. Forcing will wane with
southward extent, but any storms that make it into northeast Kansas
late this afternoon or early this evening will encounter steep mid-
level lapse rates, around 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE and over 1000 J/kg of
DCAPE. Thus, strong wind gusts could occur with storms. Small hail
will also be possible, especially with any discrete storms, given
around 40 kts of effective shear. Another round of rain is possible
overnight, but there will be less instability to work with. Today
will be the hottest day of the next several with highs in the low
90s.

The upper level pattern does not change much through the weekend.
Another wave in the northwest flow looks to move over the area on
Sunday. Have maintained a slight chance for showers and a few storms
Sunday afternoon, although instability looks fairly limited due to
cloud cover. Temperatures will also be cooler a surface ridge brings
a slightly cooler air mass into the area from the northeast.

The pattern holds through early next week and predictability of
disturbances in the northwest flow becomes more difficult at longer
ranges. The NBM has the highest POPs occurring Tuesday evening and
night with a cold front moving into the area. Temperatures are
expected to stay very close to average next week with highs in the
upper 80s and overnight low in the mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

VFR at terminals through forecast period as main challenge is the
TSRA later this evening. Model guidance is varied on coverage and
timing of weakening TSRA from NE, entering KMHK around 22Z.
Probabilities for TSRA are low so have only added VCSH mention given
the isolated nature. Confidence is moderate for a cluster of TSRA to
impact sites from 09-13Z so have adjusted the timing for the PROB30
groups and added mention at KMHK. Showers may linger past 13Z
however remain in VFR for the remainder of the period.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Teefey
AVIATION...Prieto