378
FXUS63 KTOP 270431
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1031 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gradual improvement in temperatures this week with readings
  warming above freezing temporarily on Wednesday afternoon.

- Slight chances for light snow return late Thursday evening and
  Saturday evening for portions of northeast Kansas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2026

Clear skies are allowing the regional snow pack to be highlighted on
visible satellite this afternoon. Low level troughing to our west
has increased southerly winds today from 10 to 20 mph sustained,
occasionally gusting to 30 mph. Sfc pressure gradient gradually
wanes this evening as the shortwave shifts into the Midwest, as a
weak cold front passes overnight. Lows Tuesday morning are not as
cold in the teens as wind chills by sunrise hover near zero. Airmass
continues to modify through midweek, peaking on Wednesday afternoon
in the lower 30s (east) to low 40s (west) for highs.

Another shot of arctic air makes it return by Thursday as highs
return to the teens and 20s Thursday through Saturday. GFS ensembles
have been more progressive and further east into north central
Kansas with the light QPF/snow late Thursday night as an embedded
vort max and WAA traverses the central US. Not too concerned with
impacts at this point, especially since NBM probs for 0.5 inches of
snow are around 20 percent or less. Additional slight chances for
snow return Saturday night for most locations north of I-70 as
another embedded shortwave trough shears out across the central
CONUS. Uncertainty is high in the track and timing of this system,
seen by NBM probs for 0.5 inches or higher of snow being at 10
percent or less.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1031 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2026

No change to the perv forecast. Limited boundary layer moisture
should keep VFR conditions in place as the low level jet
diminishes.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Prieto
AVIATION...Wolters