400
FXUS63 KTOP 280736
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
236 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Intermittent showers and thunderstorms through Thursday night.
  Locally heavy rainfall can`t be ruled out though severe weather
  potential is quite low.

- Not as hot today through Friday. Cooler yet this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 236 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Precipitation more robust than earlier anticipated with outflow and
MCV from convection to the northwest combining with warm-air
advection ahead of these features. Some brief strong updrafts have
occurred but limited instability and modest focusing mechanisms
keeping impacts low. This activity should slowly push off this
morning with some recovery of temperatures in the afternoon though
passage of a weak front should keep heat indicies below Advisory
level.

Upper flow becomes weak northwesterly around the weaker upper high
to the southwest bringing occasional chances for high-based showers
and thunderstorms over the next few days as models keep the mid-
levels moist. The main windows for this appear to be late tonight
into Wednesday morning then again Wednesday night into early
Thursday. Continuity remains in a shortwave trough diving southeast
across the mid-Mississippi Valley late Thursday into Friday for mid-
range precip chances locally. Instability and shear still look weak
but precipitable water values look to be around 2 inches into late
Wednesday and bump up a bit more into Thursday for some concern for
locally heavy rainfall, but again lacking any focusing mechanism this
potential is low. More northerly upper flow takes hold this weekend
with modified high pressure bringing in drier and cooler air for
benign conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Scattered convection continues to form ahead near and ahead of an
upper wave and outflow boundary moving east-southeast from northwest
Kansas. Have moved up timing of TSRA based on this but still expect
some chance for showers and thunderstorms to around 18Z until the
wave exits. Main impact looks to be visibilities, and could reach IFR
though MVFR seems more likely. Winds become more easterly as a front
moves through.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Poage
AVIATION...Poage