745
FXUS63 KTOP 311926
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
226 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered light rain showers continue through the night.

- Windy and wet Monday with a chance for severe storms.

- Cooler and mostly dry conditions favored for the last half of the
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 203 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Another shortwave is moving out of the TX/OK Panhandles into Kansas
with renewed moisture transport ahead of it. This supports another
period of scattered showers this evening/overnight. Instability is
minimal, so the threat for thunderstorms is very low.

Temperatures through Saturday stay on the mild side of normal
beneath persistent cloud cover and southerly lowlevel flow.
Highs will generally be in the upper 60s to lower 70s and lows in
the mid 50s.

Midlevel ridging will briefly build in over the central Plains on
Sunday behind the departing shortwave. Lowlevel flow remains
southerly, and the air mass stays moist, but largescale ascent is
weaker, so Sundays forecast trends toward mostly dry for much of
the area, but isolated showers can`t be ruled out.

Attention then turns to a deeper, more amplified trough digging into
the High Plains, with lee cyclogenesis and a strengthening surface
low forecast to move quickly into northcentral Kansas Monday. A
robust 5060 kt lowlevel jet will develop ahead of a rapidly
advancing cold front with surface wind gusts around 40 mph likely.
Instability appears marginal, but shear will be ample given the
highly dynamic nature of the system. The overall severe threat will
be sensitive to the degree of cloud cover, morning/early afternoon
rainfall and timing of the front. If cloud cover and rain clears out
by the afternoon then we could see enough destabilization for
stronger storms. Given the shear profile, all severe threats would be
possible in any super cells that develop. However, the more
consistent signal is for cloud cover and scattered showers/storms to
linger long enough to inhibit clearing and destabilization, leading
to more of a heavy rain threat than anything else. With PWATs once
again in record territory, rain rates in the 2-3 inch an hour range
will be likely.

As the upper low slows or becomes partially cut off from the main
westerlies Tuesday, showers may persist, especially east of Highway
75, with cooler air advecting in behind the front. Highs on Tuesday
trend back into the 60s, with lows in the 40s to lower 50s by
Tuesday night. Confidence is moderate in the presence of showers,
but lower in their exact coverage and duration, given model
differences in the evolution of the cutoff low.

By midweek, ensemble guidance suggests the largerscale trough will
gradually shift east and heights will flatten over the Plains,
allowing for a slow drying trend. However, model spread increases
after Tuesday regarding how quickly the upper low exits and whether
additional shortwaves rotate through the region. Temperatures should
settle into a more seasonal range: highs mid60s and lows mid40s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1153 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

VFR becoming MVFR tonight. Scattered rain showers will continue
through the TAF period, but coverage and timing confidence is too
low to place prevailing rain in the TAF. Lower stratus will move in
tonight.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Jones
AVIATION...Jones