157
FXUS63 KTOP 251029
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
429 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy today behind a cold front that will bring in below-normal
  temperatures Wednesday through the end of the week.

- Continuing to monitor the potential for some wintry precipitation
  Friday evening into Saturday. Uncertainty remains in the
  details of this system, so stay up to date with the latest
  forecast information.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 237 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Early this morning, the wave that brought yesterday`s dreary
conditions has advanced into the Mississippi Valley with another
stronger shortwave diving southeast across the Northern Plains. High
low-level moisture remains in place and, thus, low clouds remain in
control with fog observed across mainly the eastern half of the
forecast area. Fog hasn`t seen dense thus far, thanks to surface
wind staying elevated, but there could be some locally dense fog
through sunrise. The aforementioned Northern Plains trough will
shunt a cold front through the area from northwest to southeast
this morning, entering north-central Kansas by 6AM and exiting
the area to the east by midday. Northwest winds gusting at 30-40
MPH will bring in drier air that will work to clear skies
through the morning, but will also bring in cooler air that
holds through the remainder of the week. Highs in the 40s and
lows in the 20s will be the rule through Saturday.

A perturbation embedded in the northwest flow, along with some mid-
level frontogenesis, moves through the area Wednesday night into
early Thursday. While mid-level moisture and lift increase, dry air
below 700mb will work to evaporate most, if not all, precipitation
before it reaches the ground. Can`t rule out sprinkles or even
some flurries, but not expecting anything impactful from the
passing of this wave.

The main focus of the forecast continues to be on the system that
will impact the region Friday into the weekend. The deterministic
00z GFS and ECMWF are in better agreement with how this system
evolves, but their respective ensembles still show a wide range of
potential solutions. Generally speaking, precipitation is expected
to develop Friday afternoon/evening ahead of a shortwave that dives
southeast across the central CONUS. Temperatures look initially warm
enough for mostly rain into Saturday morning, although the column
may be sufficiently cold for some snow across far northeast Kansas.
As the system swings through the area, a cold front will bring even
colder air into the region, supporting a period of a wintry mix or
all snow on the backside of the system before it pulls away later in
the day Saturday. Key details such as when the column will become
cold enough for snow, how long and fast snow will fall, and the
subsequent accumulations are still in question. Ensembles favor
lower-end amounts; there is a 10-45% chance of at least 1" of
snowfall, with highest chances in far northeast Kansas. Note that
this is using the standard model SLR of 10:1 which is rarely the
case through an entire event, but at least offers some insight into
potential accumulations. It`s worth noting the few outliers (~5% of
the 100 ENS, GEFS, and GEPS members) that show more substantial
snowfall of several inches across the area. Amounts of this
magnitude are very unlikely, but does show the potential for a
shift in the system or a faster intrusion of cold air to allow
for greater accumulations. Even if the forecast area is does not
receive very impactful wintry weather, impacts are looking
likely around the region, especially to the north and east, so
stay up to date with the latest forecast information and
consider alternate plans if you are traveling Friday-Saturday.

Guidance is favoring a dry day on Sunday as surface high pressure
slides into the area behind the Fri-Sat system. A reinforcing shot
of cold air also moves in with below-normal temperatures continuing
into early next week. Another perturbation ejects across the Plains
late Sunday into Monday, leading to another chance for some wintry
precipitation given the cold air in place.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 429 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

VFR conditions have returned and are expected to persist through
the period. Could have some brief VSBY restrictions at KMHK as
skies clear this morning, so input a tempo group. Winds increase
behind a cold front this morning with gusts of 25-30 kts
expected through the day. Winds gradually weaken this evening
into Wednesday morning, but think at least intermittent gusts
continue through the majority of the overnight hours.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Flanagan
AVIATION...Flanagan