308
FXUS63 KTOP 281951
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
251 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms continue off and on for the
next several days. Rain chances are highest Friday afternoon and
evening (70-80%) and again Monday into Tuesday (60-80%).

- Above average temperatures continue through the end of this week,
trending closer to seasonal values by the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Water vapor imagery early this afternoon shows broad cyclonic flow
over northern and western portions of the CONUS, with one shortwave
impacting the Upper Midwest and another in the Pacific Northwest.
This leaves southwest flow aloft into the local area with a narrow
stream of moisture from the central Rockies into the High Plains. At
the surface, low pressure extends from western KS northeastward to
near the SD/MN border, in association with the first of the
aforementioned shortwaves. The better upper support for showers and
storms will be well to our north into IA/MN, but some isolated or
scattered activity may manage to develop in our area with
convergence along the front as it passes this evening into the
overnight hours. Other limiting factors for coverage are the waning
instability and lapse rates by the time the front makes it into
north central KS. Due to this, it is uncertain how long any rain may
persist as the boundary moves southeast overnight, but have
maintained some low chance PoPs until around 4-5am.

The front should settle in the area Thursday afternoon, though there
is some uncertainty as to where exactly it will set up. Short-term
guidance seems to be trending southward, near or perhaps just south
of I-70. These models are suggesting temperatures may struggle to
get above 70 degrees north of the boundary, whereas highs south of
it are forecast to be in the upper 70s to near 80. Similar to
tonight, CAMs are suggesting isolated showers or storms to develop
near the front during the early evening, but coverage looks limited
with modest lapse rates around 6.5 C/km.

Friday brings the next best chance of rain as the southern stream
trough lifts northeast into the area. Some isentropic lift ahead of
the wave could start showers overnight Thursday night into early
Friday, but chances peak during the afternoon and evening when
vorticity advection increases. Again, lapse rates don`t look much
better than the next couple of days, so while some pockets of
lightning and thunder are possible, it doesn`t appear probable for a
given location. This wave slowly pushes east into Saturday, leaving
conditions to become drier for evening Halloween activities.

Sunday brings a break from rain chances while the next more potent
trough deepens over the western US and moves into the area Monday.
This stronger system looks to bring the most rain to the area during
the next week in terms of amounts and probably coverage as well.
There is still enough variability in the guidance in how this trough
evolves Monday into Tuesday, leading to uncertainty in timing and
location of associated surface features. The cold front should move
through the area by Tuesday. As such, temperatures look to remain
above average through the end of this week with highs in the 70s,
but should get closer to mid 60s behind the front. Clouds and rain
could still result in temperatures on the cooler side of guidance
at times, particularly on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Breezy southerly winds continue through this afternoon with gusts
around 25-30 kts, which should subside early this evening. A weak
frontal boundary may bring isolated showers later tonight, but
probability of occurrence is too low to warrant a mention in the
TAFs. Otherwise, expect light and variable winds with fropa before
switching to the northeast. There could be a brief window of MVFR
cigs late in the period, but only mentioned this at MHK with
confidence a bit higher there.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Picha
AVIATION...Picha