575
FXUS63 KTOP 260715
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
215 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Extreme heat again today and still quite hot Monday. Slow cooling
  trend continues into the late week.

- No precipitation expected until at least Monday night with chances
  lingering into the later week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Very high surface moisture content Saturday afternoon coming down
slowly overnight with most dewpoints below 80 degrees at 06Z. With
850mb temperatures in the mid 20s C and good insolation pushing
surface temps to the mid to upper 90s, most places saw apparent
temps over 115 at least briefly. Mean guidance was too low with
dewpoints Saturday, and values closer to the 75th percentile of NBM
were realized. Though there should be somewhat better mixing today
and ground conditions continue to dry, went closer to the 75th
percentile dewpoints for today. In combination with slightly warmer
temps off the surface, apparent temps should be around Warning
levels this afternoon, and given the high-end conditions Saturday,
will go ahead with a Warning area-wide today. Most guidance suggests
the warmest air temps may come Monday though also bring dewpoints
down as low-level flow veers and increases somewhat. This should
allow for slightly lower apparent temps, still in Advisory levels
for the bulk of the area.

Still appears the upper ridge over the Southwest weakens somewhat
late Monday and allows a weak cold front to push through Monday
night into Tuesday. Precipitation chances remain modest but should
increase later in the week as stronger shortwave energy rounds the
ridge and moves through the northern and central Plains. Tuesday
could still bring notable heat to at least southern areas depending
on how fast the front passes, dewpoints behind it, and any
convection, so the Extreme Heat Watch seems reasonable to keep at
this point. The pattern supports generally cooler, closer to normal
conditions Wednesday into Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

VFR conditions are expected. There is at least a low chance for
limiting BR formation over the next several hours, mainly at KTOP,
but expect mixing to be enough to keep this out of the forecast.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ008-
KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-
KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-
KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.
Heat Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Monday for KSZ008-
KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-
KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-
KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.
Extreme Heat Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday evening for
KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-
KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-
KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Poage
AVIATION...Poage