582
FXUS63 KTOP 280008
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
708 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain this evening into Thursday morning. At least 1.5 inches
  is likely (60% or greater chance) south of a line from
  Herington to Garnett but the flooding potential remains low.

- Cooler temperatures continue through the weekend. Another
  chance of rain (20-40%) Saturday into Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 117 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

Rainfall is likely across portions of central and southeast
Kansas into tomorrow morning. Moist advection with southerly
surface flow will bring dewpoints into the low 60s by this
evening and PWATs around 1.75 inches. A low-level jet will try
to nose into our area tonight, but should largely stay to our
southwest. The bulk of the instability and more focused lift
should also stay to our southwest as a mid-level wave bisects
Kansas tonight. With significant dry air in place and the main
storm track remaining off to the south and west, far northeast
Kansas may see little to no rain with this system. The heaviest
precipitation is expected along and south of a line from
Minneapolis - Abilene - Herrington - Emporia - Garnett. These
and surrounding locations could see 1-2.5 inches of rain. With
recent dry conditions and rain rates generally expected to be
an inch or less an hour, flash flooding is not favored. Some
local rises in creeks and rivers are possible, especially for
streams that have their headwaters further west (portions of
Saline, Marion and Chase Counties could see above 3 inches of
rain). Fog is looking likely tonight with a moist boundary-layer
and light wind. The fog and precipitation should exit the area
late tomorrow afternoon. Northwest flow remains in place through
the weekend. With several waves moving through the mean flow
and moisture remaining in place, rain will be possible Saturday
into Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 647 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

Have delayed onset for showers and possible storms further
into the overnight period. The window for storms should end by
early morning with the best chance to impact the terminals
around KMHK. Trends continue to suggest that low CIGS should pan
out and last through much of the last half of the period
possibly improving by mid to late afternoon tomorrow. For now
have kept the IFR forecast through the last half of the period
as saturation is expected to remain fairly deep through the
lower levels within a few hundred feet off the surface. Overall,
the forecast is low to medium confidence as the bulk of the
precipitation and any embedded storms appear to be trending and
best focused south of the area.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Jones
AVIATION...Drake