677
FXUS63 KTOP 281734
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1134 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Rain develops late today and transitions to snow for part of
 the area tomorrow. Accumulations look minor.

-Temperatures drop into the teens Saturday night and remain very
 chilly into next week.

-Confidence is increasing in another round of snow on Monday
 that could bring widespread accumulations.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 410 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Two systems will bring rain and snow to the area this weekend and
early next week. The first system is currently moving onshore across
the Pacific Northwest and will progress eastward across the
Intermountain West today. A large surface ridge in place over
the central US today will move east as low pressure develops
ahead of the approaching mid-level wave. Winds will increase out
of the southeast this afternoon as the pressure gradient
increases across the area. Some hi-res models show scattered
showers developing in central and eastern KS in response to low
level WAA this afternoon, but have kept POPs less than 10
percent with soundings showing quite a bit of dry air. POPs
increase this evening once large scale lift increases. WAA will
keep temperatures above freezing through the night, keeping
precip as rain. Once the surface low pivots east of the area
midday tomorrow, cold air will quickly filter in with strong
northwest winds. Rain will transition to snow, but snow isn`t
likely to last long as moisture becomes cut off. Far northern KS
could see around half an inch of accumulation with just a trace
elsewhere.

The next surface ridge will bring a very cold air mass into the
region on Sunday and Monday. Wind chills are likely to be in the
single digits Sunday morning with lows in the teens. Only a small
amount of warming is expected with temps topping out in the 20s
Sunday afternoon. Similar conditions are expected Monday when the
next wave moves over the area. Models, including the NBM, seem to be
in better agreement with a band of precipitation developing as PVA
associated with the trough moves over. Given the cold air mass,
precipitation will be snow and the snow to liquid ratios will
be fairly high. Probabilities for one inch of snow are
increasing and the current forecast is for a general one to two
inches, centered on the I-70 corridor. Travel could be impacted
as snow accumulates during the day.

Monday`s system moves east and temperatures begin to moderate
slightly into midweek when south winds return. Dry weather is
currently forecast after Monday`s snow, however, another wave
could bring light precip back to the area on Wednesday. There is
quite a bit of model variation, but POPs could increase if
models come into better agreement with the system.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1129 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

VFR becoming IFR by tomorrow morning. Light drizzle/rain is
possible at all TAF sites this evening, but the highest
probabilities of precipitation impacting terminals arrives after
06z. CIGs will diminish through the night. There is a brief
period of LLWS expected this evening as some stronger
southwesterly wind aloft (40-50 knots) develops overhead of
light southeasterly wind. Wind will switch out of the northwest
at all levels by the end of the period and gusty northwest wind
is possible at the surface just before 18z.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Teefey
AVIATION...Jones