166
FXUS63 KTOP 311043
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
543 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Late summer heat is expected to persist this week. A heat advisory
  remains in effect for most of the area until 7pm today.

- Parts of norther central Kansas may see a stray shower or storm
  this morning. Otherwise dry weather is expected into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 237 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

07Z water vapor imagery placed the center of the upper ridge over
the Ozarks while a subtle shortwave kicked off some convection over
western KS. Surface obs showed a weak boundary stretched from
southwest through north central KS. The better moisture and
instability was found pooled north of the boundary with some
southerly winds still mixing lower dewpoints to the surface south of
the boundary.

The models show the surface boundary or inverted trough axis hanging
out close to it`s current position through the day today and then
lifting north tonight. There is a general lack of dynamics progged
to lift over the boundary today while forecast soundings for a mixed
parcel maintaining some modest inhibition to convection. And CAMs
don`t really develop any additional showers or storms once this
morning activity dies off. With isentropic surfaces keeping the
better mid level saturation just north of the state line today,
potential for additional elevated shower activity looks to be limited
and have a dry forecast with skies becoming sunny to mostly sunny.
This brings us to highs for today. The NBM had under performed
yesterday and have leaned a little more heavily on the operational
progs of 925MB and 850MB temps mixed to the surface. For areas along
and north of the trough axis, highs may only make it into the middle
and upper 90s due to limited mixing. But for most of the area, think
we should see highs again in the 100 to 103 degree range. Even with
some mixing of the boundary layer moisture, heat indices are forecast
to reach the 100 to 105 range again this afternoon and have
continued the heat advisory without any changes.

Precip chances for the rest of the week and through next weekend
appear to be pretty slim. There is the off chance for a stray
perturbation rounding the upper ridge to spark some shower activity.
But the predictability of these meso scale features are limited. So
think the NBM forecast for POPs around 10 percent or less is pretty
reasonable. With the upper ridge sliding east through mid week, the
lower heights seem to be translating to slightly cooler
temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday. There is also expected to
be reasonable mixing of the boundary layer keeping dewpoint temps in
the lower and middle 60s. As a result, heat indices are not expected
to be as hot for Tuesday an why the heat advisory has not been
extended past this evening.

The main change in the pattern for the extended part of the forecast
is the progged redevelopment of the upper ridge over the central
plains by the end of the week and lasting through the weekend. The
last several runs of the ECMWF have been consistent in the
redevelopment of the ridge right over KS and is supported by the 00Z
GFS and AIGFS. So why WPC/NBM is forecasting highs in the lower to
middle 90s this weekend is puzzling. Cluster analysis of the 12Z
ensembles showed more than 50 percent of the members also have the
center of the upper ridge over the forecast area. And while
increasing spreads in the envelop of possible temperatures may
explain a gradual cooling trend in the extended forecast, the 01Z NBM
keeps highs in the middle and upper 90s for Friday and Saturday in
contrast to the WPC forecast. Cluster analysis showed only about 15
and 20 percent of the members had a pattern supportive of the cooler
temps. Meanwhile the 00Z ECMWF/GFS and 12Z LREF would suggest the
upper 90s to around 100 heat should persist through next weekend. So
I think the forecast is a little to optimistic suggesting cooler
temps this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 543 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Weakening showers to the west are expected to fall apart or track
north before reaching the terminals due to the upper ridging. VFR
conditions are forecast to persist.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 156 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Record highest minimum temperature information:

                      Record                   Forecast

September 1  Topeka     81, set in 2011            77
             Concordia  80, set in 1913            78


September 2  Topeka     80, set in 2011            78
             Concordia  79, set in 1929            78


September 3  Topeka     77, set in 1939            78
             Concordia  80, set in 1947            78

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-
KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-
KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wolters
AVIATION...Wolters
CLIMATE...Poage/Reese