636
FXUS63 KTOP 151232
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
732 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm today and tomorrow with highs in the 90s and heat indices
  around or above 100 degrees.

- A few storms move into north-central KS tonight with a gusty
  wind risk. More widespread threat for storms arrives
  Wednesday night with a cold front.

- Cooler Thursday but heat builds again for the weekend and into
  next week, with heat indices around or above 100 degrees.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 357 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Currently a quiet morning across the region, given broad upper
ridging in place over the Central Plains. Ahead of a pair of weak
shortwaves moving over the Rockies, lee troughing across the High
Plains has allowed southerly flow to return. This will support deep
boundary layer mixing and warm temperatures today. Highs climb into
the mid 90s, with upper 60s dewpoints resulting in heat indices
around 100. Tonight, the first of the aforementioned shortwaves will
move into western Nebraska, resulting in a line of thunderstorms
developing there and moving to the east-southeast over the evening.
If a strong cold pool can be established earlier in the evening,
there may be a lingering risk of damaging wind gusts for a few hours
around midnight as storms approach north-central KS. However
increasing CIN with time and eastern extent will result in a
weakening trend as the line moves farther into the area.

One impact from tonight`s storms will be to push an effective cold
front southward into the area. The exact southward extent will
depend on the strength/longevity of the convective cold pool, and is
still uncertain at the moment. It could stall out as far south as
the I-70 corridor, or stay stuck farther north into southeast
Nebraska. At any rate, temperatures south of the boundary will climb
into the mid/upper 90s, while temperatures to the north will stay
cooler in the low 90s and even upper 80s. The boundary will also
serve as a focus for scattered showers and storms to redevelop -
possibly as early as the afternoon hours but more likely overnight
Wednesday as the second of the aforementioned shortwaves moves
across the Plains. The southward extent of the boundary will play a
large role in where and how storms evolve Wednesday evening/night,
so confidence in details is low for now. However instability and
shear will likely be sufficient for some sort of severe risk
(primarily damaging winds), and training convection may end up
supporting potential for heavy rain with localized flash flooding.

Increasing confidence that the cold front will push entirely through
the area by Thursday morning, granting a brief reprieve from hot and
humid conditions. Temperatures Thursday will be very dependent on
cloud cover, but even in a sunnier scenario highs may only reach the
low/mid 80s. More widespread cloud cover and lingering showers could
result in temperatures staying in the mid/upper 70s for the day.
Temperatures warm back up for the weekend as ridging expands and
upper heights rise across the Central/Southern Plains. Heat indices
likely surpass 100 during the afternoon Saturday and Sunday. Just
beyond the scope of this forecast, there is a signal in extended
range guidance for even stronger ridging and hotter temperatures for
the last third of July. Plenty of time though for this to come into
focus, so just something to monitor for now.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 732 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

VFR conditions and modest south winds will continue through the
period, with winds strongest during the afternoon up to around
10 kts. Complex of weakening thunderstorms may approach KMHK
late in the period, but confidence is too low for inclusion.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Reese
AVIATION...Reese