934
FXUS63 KTOP 250532
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1232 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and a few thunderstorms move eastward from north central
to eastern KS late tonight into Friday morning.

- Scattered showers and a few embedded thunderstorms continue at
times through Saturday, although there will be dry time as well.

- Dry weather is expected Sunday and most of Monday before rain
chances return Monday night through Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Circulation from the upper-level trough can be seen via water vapor
imagery around the AZ-Mexico border with moisture streaming out
ahead of it into the Southern and Central Plains. The ridge remains
parked in the Gulf up through the Lower MS River Valley. Meanwhile
another upper trough is amplifying off the Pacific Northwest coast.
At the surface, a less-defined area of low pressure is noted in
southwest KS and southeast CO. The first batch of showers with
isolated thunder is making its way through north central KS where
the deeper moisture is located, and should continue moving north-
northeast through the rest of the afternoon. There looks to be a bit
of a lull in precip early this evening before isentropic lift
increases and brings more scattered showers and embedded storms west
to east later tonight. Periods of rain will continue at times Friday
and Saturday as DCVA increases with shortwaves rounding the ridge
and helping to increase synoptic lift. That said, coverage remains
scattered and there may also be lulls in activity with more isolated
rain Friday afternoon and early evening. So it will not be raining
continuously at any particular location and a washout is not
anticipated over the next couple of days. Pwat values look to be at
their peak tonight into Friday (1.5-1.9") and then decrease into
Saturday with only a few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE to support
convection. That could result in some heavy downpours at times, but
am not anticipating enough to result in major flooding concerns. In
general, hi-res guidance suggests some isolated locations could see
rain totals of 2+ inches, though 0.5-1.5" seems more realistic for
most places.

There is still some uncertainty on how soon the last shortwave
departs and when exactly rain will end altogether Saturday night,
but overall it looks like we should be drying out by Sunday morning.
Low-amplitude ridging favors dry weather Sunday and most of Monday,
although there isn`t much of a warm-up in store as low-level winds
turn northerly and easterly. The strengthening Pacific trough then
makes it way across the CONUS and brings the next cold front Monday
night into Tuesday, which brings the next best chance for rain.
Models diverge on the speed and amplitude of this system by
Wednesday, and PoPs continue but with lower confidence. One possible
scenario is for a more amplified and progressive trough, while
another scenario is for the upper low to become cut off and meander
around the central US through the end of the week. Either way, at
least somewhat cooler temperatures are forecast behind the front by
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

First round of scattered showers has lifted northeast of
KTOP. Expecting another round of showers, possibly with a few
embedded thunderstorms, to develop 09-10z towards KMHK and move east
towards KTOP/KFOE shortly after sunrise. Light additional showers
may linger for much of the period after this, but with lower overall
coverage and intensity. Ceilings look to stay primarily VFR, but
some MVFR ceilings may mix in for a time, especially towards KMHK.
Winds stay generally southeasterly 5-10 kts.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Picha
AVIATION...Reese