203
FXUS63 KTOP 271911
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
211 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The forecast continues to have off and on chances for showers and
  storms for the next seven days. Rain is most likely (up to 85%)
  Friday and Friday night and again Monday into Tuesday.

- Above normal temperatures should persist through the end of the
  workweek.

- More seasonal temperatures are forecast by the middle of next week
  with lows in the lower 40s and highs in the lower and middle 60s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 211 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

19Z water vapor imagery continued to show the longer wavelength
trough over the Pacific Northwest. One shortwave had lifter into
northern MO and southern IA with a second wave lifting towards the
MT/Canada boundary. Surface obs showed a lee trough along the central
Rockies with southerly low level flow through the southern plains.

The forecast continues to have occasional chances for light rain
through Thursday. The RAP/NAM/GFS continue to show a good warm air
advection pattern setting up tonight with isentropic surfaces
indicating good lift with nearly saturated parcels. As a result the
CAMs continue to develop isolated showers by the late evening and
into the early hours of Wednesday morning. Have continued with some
slight chance POPs expecting the coverage of storms to remain
somewhat isolated. Then a weak frontal boundary is progged to move
into northeast and north central KS Wednesday night. There doesn`t
look to be a lot of synoptic scale forcing for precip, but models
have been consistent in precip along the boundary as it moves into
northeast KS. In both cases, mid level lapse rates are progged to be
around 6 C/km or weaker so there may be some rumbles of thunder, but
stronger storms are not anticipated.

A better defined shortwave is still on track to impact the forecast
area Thursday night and Friday. Although the 12Z GFS has complicated
things with a much slower progression to the wave and some potential
for precip through the day Saturday. There is some increased spread
in the ensembles with the handling of this shortwave energy. For
example the ECMWF keeps a progressive wave exiting the area Saturday
morning only to bring another vortmax through northeast KS Saturday
night. So confidence in the deterministic runs is a little below
normal until the shortwave details become more apparent. Again with
this wave, the GFS projects some rather shallow lapse rates ahead of
the wave and limits instability for strong convection.

The operational solutions seem to have a similar solution with upper
level energy closing off and digging into the central plains before
cutting off from the mean westerlies, and the spreads from the 00Z
ensembles had come a little closer. Still there are differences in
the strength of the upper low and where it cuts off. This may affect
some of the details of the sensible weather, but confidence in
periods of rain is improving. The 12Z runs seem to trend a little
further south of the upper low and keeping the surface low mainly
south of the forecast area. This would make it difficult for the
warm sector and better instability to advect into the forecast area.
But it bares watching as the wind profiles could support organized
updrafts and a risk for severe weather.

Temperatures through the end of the work week look to remain above
normal so long as there is reasonable insolation. A strong pressure
gradient and deep mixing should help push highs to near 80 on
Wednesday. Increasing clouds on Thursday and an easterly component
to the low level winds may keep highs in the middle 70s. Then clouds
and precip chances for Friday and Saturday look to cause highs to
trend cooler. More seasonal temperatures are forecast by the end of
the forecast period as the potential for some cold air advection
increases behind the low pressure system.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1140 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Models keep an area of low pressure in the lee of the central
Rockies. This should allow for the frontal boundary to lift back
north and southerly winds to increase overnight as the pressure
gradient tightens. This should also allow for VFR conditions to
prevail. There is a strengthening low level jet, but wind shear
potential appears to be low as the pressure gradient promotes mixing
of the boundary layer. There also continues to be a signal for warm
air advection showers and perhaps a thunderstorms early Wed morning.
Showers look to be pretty isolated so will hold off on including
precip in the forecast.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wolters
AVIATION...Wolters