628
FXUS63 KTOP 041041
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
541 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect until Tuesday evening
  due to the prolonged heat wave impacting the region.

- There is some hope for heat relief and precipitation later
  next week, although predictability is low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 212 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

The upper ridge over the southeast CONUS is beginning its expansion
westward over the Plains early this morning, keeping hot conditions
in place across the region. Elevated low-level winds have kept the
boundary layer mixed overnight with temperatures in the 70s and low
80s at 2 AM, where they will likely stay through the rest of the
overnight hours. Once mixing commences this morning, anomalously warm
low-level temperatures will boost surface temperatures into the upper 90s to
near 100 degrees yet again this afternoon. Daytime mixing will allow
for dewpoints to lower slightly through the day, but still create
afternoon heat index values of 100-106 degrees across the area. This
will be the 7th consecutive day of heat indices reaching 100+
degrees. Unfortunately for those hoping for more fall-like weather,
this pattern holds through at least Tuesday. As such, expect highs
in the upper 90s to near 100 with daily afternoon heat index values
of 95-107 degrees. There could be some thicker cloud cover and a low
(<15%) chance for precipitation Sunday through Tuesday as weak
energy wraps around the mid-level ridge, but right now any impacts
to temperatures appear low. See no reason to change the Extreme Heat
Warning at this point with the prolonged nature of this heat wave
being the most dangerous aspect.

Predictability decreases by the middle of next week as some guidance
suggests a strong wave moving across the Great Lakes will push a
cold front through the area and shunt the mid-level ridge west while
other guidance keeps the ridge centered over the Southern and
Central Plains. The latter solution is favored slightly, but even
this scenario brings at least some heat relief to the area by late
next week. There is about a 10 degree spread between the NBM 25th-
75th percentiles for high temperatures by Thursday, ranging from the
upper 80s to upper 90s. Precipitation chances may increase during
this time as well, depending upon if the front makes it through the
area and the strength of any passing waves.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 541 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

VFR conditions continue. Winds increase to 10-12kts with
occasional gusts near 20kts by mid-morning before weakening
again around sunset.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 212 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

Record highest minimum temperature information:

                      Record                   Forecast

September 4  Topeka     78, set in 1947 & 2014    74
 Concordia  79, set in 1954           78

September 5  Topeka     76, set in 1925 & 1983    74
 Concordia  78, set in 1899           75

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ008-KSZ009-
KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-
KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-
KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Flanagan
AVIATION...Flanagan
CLIMATE...Flanagan/Poage