111
FXUS63 KTOP 070027
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
727 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated storms possible across far eastern Kansas late this
  afternoon and early evening. Some may be strong, with wind gusts of
  50 to 60 mph.

- Dangerous heat and humidity continues through Tuesday. Expect
afternoon temperatures in the upper 90s with heat indices in the 105-
110 degree range.

- A frontal boundary moves across the area Wednesday afternoon
returning widespread chances for rain and storms.

- Cooler temperatures are expected behind the front for the
remainder of the week with chances for rain and storms increasing.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 149 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Another hot and humid afternoon is again underway today with most of
northeast KS already approaching the mid 90s as of 1 PM. Mid-level
water vapor imagery this afternoon shows a decaying convective
complex entering central KS as a shortwave rounding the upper level
ridge is noted across eastern Kansas. This wave has helped to
provide a bit of upper-level support and shear across far eastern
Kansas this afternoon. For the remainder of the afternoon, MLCAPE
values ahead of the shortwave axis will build into the 3000-4000
J/kg range as deep shear increases towards 25-30 knots. Mesoanalysis
has already noted minimal surface inhibition across east-central KS
and looks to be confirmed by visible satellite imagery showing
towering Cu from the Flint Hills towards the I-35 corridor.
Scattered storms are expected to develop within this corridor as the
shortwave moves into the Mississippi Valley this evening. Given the
thermodynamic environment and inverted-V soundings, the main hazard
with any stronger storms will be wind gusts to 60 mph. By the later
afternoon and early evening hours, best forcing will become focused
across western Missouri so this should shift the best storm chances
east of the area. Could still see some lingering elevated showers
and isolated storm across far east-central and northeastern KS,
but higher confidence in storm coverage will be east of the area.

The dangerous heat continues into Labor Day with heat indices again
expected to build into the 105-110 degree range. Cannot rule out
some weak pop-up showers/storms across far east-central KS by the
mid to late afternoon, but given the lack of upper-level support and
low-level forcing, chances are only around 15 percent.

A change in the synoptic pattern is not expected to come until
Wednesday as a trough digging out of the BC/PNW region moves into
the the northern Plains. Most guidance depicts this wave to be
strong enough to deepen and push a lee cyclone across the Plains
Wednesday. Given the moisture in place, rain and storms along the
boundary will be likely Wednesday. Some stronger storms along the
boundary may be possible by later in the afternoon Wednesday across
east-central KS as CAPE and shear increase. Gusty winds and some
small hail look to be the main hazards in any isolated strong/severe
storm. Given the frontal boundary and appreciable cloud cover
Wednesday, most of the area should find some relief in temperatures,
especially across northern Kansas as highs top out in the upper 80s.
Further south where the boundary will take a bit longer to reach,
temperatures may again approach the mid to upper 90s with heat
indicies in the low triple digits.

Thankfully, the remainder of the work week and weekend looks much
cooler as a modified Canadian airmass moves into the area. Expect
temperatures to top out in the upper 80s and low 90s. A more active
precipitation pattern looks to set up by the late week and weekend
with several waves moving in from the PNW. While any precipitation
will be very welcomed, this pattern should at least keep persistent
upper-level ridging south and west of the region, and hopefully for
the remainder of Summer.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 608 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Expect VFR conditions for te next 24 hours. I cannot rule out an
isolated shower or thunderstorm developing through the early evening
hours around the KTOP and KFOE terminals, but the probability will
be 20 percent or less. There may be another 20 percent of
thunderstorms Monday afternoon around the KTOP and KFOE terminals.


&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 155 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Record highest minimum temperature information:

                      Record                   Forecast

September 7  Topeka     77, set in 1939 & 2016    72
 Concordia  79, set in 1922           74

September 8  Topeka     78, set in 1983           74
 Concordia  77, set in 1947 & 1983    78

Record high temperature information:

September 8  Topeka     104, set in 2013          101
 Concordia  102, set in 2013          101

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ008-KSZ009-
KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-
KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-
KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Griesemer
AVIATION...Gargan
CLIMATE...Griesemer/Poage