380
FXUS63 KTOP 031921
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
221 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms expected this evening along a southward
moving cold front. Some storms could be severe with large hail and
damaging winds.

- Cool temperatures with a few rain chances persist into early
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 219 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

Surface observations show the cold front is beginning to move south
from Nebraska into far northeast Kansas. Ahead of the front,
sunshine and weak WAA is helping temperatures rise into the low/mid
80s - our warmest day in over 10 days. With dewpoints in the low/mid
60s and mid-level cooling beginning to occur, CIN is weakening just
ahead of the boundary. So expect scattered thunderstorms to begin to
develop within the 4-6 PM window as the front nears the I-70
corridor. Moisture convergence isn`t all that impressive, so some
uncertainty with how fast storms can become organized. But with 40-
45 kts of effective shear and 1500-2000 J/kg of ML CAPE, do expect a
few storms to eventually become severe. The hail threat will likely
be greatest with any initial supercells, with a wind threat
increasing as storms become more numerous and cold pools merge.
Can`t rule out some significant hail larger than golf ball size,
particularly towards central KS where mid-level lapse rates and
effective shear are slightly better. The severe threat should
quickly move south of the area by around 9-10 PM, with cooler and
drier air steadily moving in.

Tomorrow morning will be nice and cool as surface high pressure very
briefly becomes centered over the area. Light winds and clear skies
may also result in some fog as temperatures drop to near 50 degrees.
A fast moving upper wave then moves southeast into the main Great
Lakes upper low, pushing a secondary cold front through our area
Thursday night. While moisture quality won`t be quite as much behind
the first front, still may see a few weaker thunderstorms late
Thursday night. Good signal for lighter showers to persist into the
day on Friday, with cloud cover likely keeping temperatures in the
60s. High pressure moves back in by Saturday morning, allowing
temperatures to fall into the upper 40s across much of the area.
Cool temperatures continue through the weekend and into early week
as northwest flow and surface ridging persist. The weekend looks
mostly dry, followed by some minor rain chances early next week with
a pair of weak upper waves.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

Expecting scattered thunderstorms to develop around 21-23Z
this evening as a cold front moves south across the area. Storms
should be south of the main TAF sites by 01Z, though a few showers
could linger for a bit longer. Light southwest winds this afternoon
veer to the north at around 5 kts behind the cold front. With
clearing skies and light winds, could see some patchy dense fog
towards sunrise tomorrow morning, though confidence is low for now.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Reese
AVIATION...Reese