887
FXUS63 KTOP 300524
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1224 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Shower and Thunderstorm chances return late this afternoon and
 evening (30-60%).

- Shower and Thunderstorm chances linger Friday morning before
widespread activity returns during the afternoon/evening
while lingering through Saturday morning (50-80%).

- Another storm system will arrive late Sunday bringing increasing
probabilities for rain and storms to eastern Kansas Monday and
Tuesday (60-80%).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 111 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

A mid/upper ridge axis extended from the Lower Mississippi Valley
area NNW across the Central Plains while a stationary front was
bisecting Kansas early this afternoon. Low clouds and fog were
observed north of the front impacting much of northern and western
Kansas. This frontal boundary is progged to meander over the area
through tonight before mixing northward as we move into the day on
Friday. This is expected to result in another round of low ceilings
and areas of fog developing along and north of the boundary again
tonight. We may also see a sharp temperature gradient, especially
where low clouds persist. Some elevated showers and thunderstorms
will be possible across parts of central and northeast Kansas this
evening and tonight, aided by a developing LLJ. PWATs are progged to
rise to 1.25+ inches supporting efficient rainfall. We could see a
strong storm or two with gusty winds and hail given elevated CAPE
~1500 J/KG this evening. The initial development could be over
central KS before the activity focuses further north across
northeast KS where we will see a higher potential for some pockets
of excessive rain.

Some storms  may be ongoing across parts of northeast KS early on
Friday before we see a brief lull during the late morning/early
afternoon hours. Increasing probabilities for rain are expected to
return as we move into the afternoon and evening hours as a
negatively tilted shortwave trough lifts northeast towards the area.
With steep mid-lvl lapse rates initially progged, we could see some
embedded thunderstorms at times, especially across northern KS later
in the day and perhaps lingering into the evening hours. Some drier
air could be wrapped into parts of southeast KS, limiting rainfall
potential as we move into the evening and overnight hours as the
system quickly lifts north of the area. Some low pops were
maintained on Sat but lingering clouds should keep temperatures near
climate normals with highs mostly in the 60s.

Shortwave ridging will return to the area on Sunday with mostly dry
weather conditions anticipated during the day. With some breaks in
the clouds, afternoon highs may rise into the lower 70s in some
areas while parts of central and western KS will see more seasonable
highs in the 60s. Another robust mid/upper trough is progged to
build over the Rockies late Sunday/Sunday night. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected to become more numerous Sunday
night/early Monday morning as the exit region of the upper jet
builds over the Southern Plains. The pattern may support a few
strong/severe storms as we move through the day on Monday but given
the potential for more widespread activity and potential training,
pockets of heavy rain may be a bigger concern. High pops were
maintained Mon night into Tuesday as numerous showers are
anticipated under the upper low. A cold front will usher in more
seasonable air as we move into Wed-Thu with highs in the low to mid
60s. Some low pops were maintained on Wed due to uncertainty in the
timing of the mid/upper trough. Dry weather conditions are expected
to return by late Wed into Thu.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Showers and storms impact the Topeka terminals early tonight. There
could be a brief period of MVFR at KMHK Friday morning, but wasn`t
quite confident enough to put it in TAFs with this update. Have
focused the 06Z on the short-term, but there could be another round
of rain and storms that impact airports Friday afternoon and evening.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Griesemer
AVIATION...Teefey