078
FXUS63 KTOP 292347
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
647 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Shower and Thunderstorm chances return late this afternoon and
 evening (30-60%).

- Shower and Thunderstorm chances linger Friday morning before
widespread activity returns during the afternoon/evening
while lingering through Saturday morning (50-80%).

- Another storm system will arrive late Sunday bringing increasing
probabilities for rain and storms to eastern Kansas Monday and
Tuesday (60-80%).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 111 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

A mid/upper ridge axis extended from the Lower Mississippi Valley
area NNW across the Central Plains while a stationary front was
bisecting Kansas early this afternoon. Low clouds and fog were
observed north of the front impacting much of northern and western
Kansas. This frontal boundary is progged to meander over the area
through tonight before mixing northward as we move into the day on
Friday. This is expected to result in another round of low ceilings
and areas of fog developing along and north of the boundary again
tonight. We may also see a sharp temperature gradient, especially
where low clouds persist. Some elevated showers and thunderstorms
will be possible across parts of central and northeast Kansas this
evening and tonight, aided by a developing LLJ. PWATs are progged to
rise to 1.25+ inches supporting efficient rainfall. We could see a
strong storm or two with gusty winds and hail given elevated CAPE
~1500 J/KG this evening. The initial development could be over
central KS before the activity focuses further north across
northeast KS where we will see a higher potential for some pockets
of excessive rain.

Some storms  may be ongoing across parts of northeast KS early on
Friday before we see a brief lull during the late morning/early
afternoon hours. Increasing probabilities for rain are expected to
return as we move into the afternoon and evening hours as a
negatively tilted shortwave trough lifts northeast towards the area.
With steep mid-lvl lapse rates initially progged, we could see some
embedded thunderstorms at times, especially across northern KS later
in the day and perhaps lingering into the evening hours. Some drier
air could be wrapped into parts of southeast KS, limiting rainfall
potential as we move into the evening and overnight hours as the
system quickly lifts north of the area. Some low pops were
maintained on Sat but lingering clouds should keep temperatures near
climate normals with highs mostly in the 60s.

Shortwave ridging will return to the area on Sunday with mostly dry
weather conditions anticipated during the day. With some breaks in
the clouds, afternoon highs may rise into the lower 70s in some
areas while parts of central and western KS will see more seasonable
highs in the 60s. Another robust mid/upper trough is progged to
build over the Rockies late Sunday/Sunday night. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected to become more numerous Sunday
night/early Monday morning as the exit region of the upper jet
builds over the Southern Plains. The pattern may support a few
strong/severe storms as we move through the day on Monday but given
the potential for more widespread activity and potential training,
pockets of heavy rain may be a bigger concern. High pops were
maintained Mon night into Tuesday as numerous showers are
anticipated under the upper low. A cold front will usher in more
seasonable air as we move into Wed-Thu with highs in the low to mid
60s. Some low pops were maintained on Wed due to uncertainty in the
timing of the mid/upper trough. Dry weather conditions are expected
to return by late Wed into Thu.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 617 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Still looking for a window for possible showers and storms impacting
the terminals later this evening as the LLJ increases over the
stationary boundary just south of the terminals. Thinking the broader
coverage of showers and storms remains north of the terminals
overnight with stratus impacting the terminals into the morning and
possibly much of the day Friday. Confidence is too low regarding
coverage and timing of possible showers and storms again Friday
evening so have opted to not mention at this time. Will continue to
assess the trends going into subsequent forecast periods.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Griesemer
AVIATION...Drake