421
FXUS63 KTOP 311717
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1217 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Early morning thunderstorms gradually clear out after sunrise.
Locally heavy rain and isolated flooding possible for the next few
hours.

- Conditional risk for severe thunderstorms this evening across
eastern Kansas. If storms redevelop, large hail and damaging winds
will be possible, with a low tornado risk.

- Staying a bit warmer than average for the next week. Low rain and
storm chances continue Monday through Thursday, mainly towards
central KS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 243 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Another night with scattered convection currently ongoing amidst a
broad WAA regime. Shear remains weak, which should help storms stay
predominantly sub-severe. Nevertheless, a favorable thermodynamic
environment is in place so some small hail or localized gusty winds
can`t be ruled out. Locally heavy rain may also pose some minor
flooding issues, given a tendency for storms to backbuild and train
over the same areas. However the better WAA will shift northeastward
over the morning hours, which should help coverage of convection
wane over time.

As the main upper low continues northeast this afternoon, mid-level
heights will begin to rise across the Central Plains. The resulting
synoptic scale subsidence will tend to suppress convection during
the afternoon and evening hours. However, the current band of
convection developing near I-70 may help to lay down an east/west
outflow boundary somewhere in the area, as depicted by some short
range guidance. If this does occur, there may be a small zone of
mesoscale lift favorable for storm development this evening.
Increasing mid-level flow and veering low-level winds along the
boundary would act to increase shear, and coupled with ML CAPE over
3500 J/kg, a supercell or two would be possible. So will have to
watch for a conditional severe weather risk, with large hail to
around 2", damaging winds, and a low tornado risk associated with
any storm that manages to develop on the boundary.

A seasonably strong upper ridge axis will remain nearby for much of
the rest of the week, keeping temperatures a bit on the warm side of
average. Meanwhile, an upper low over Ontario will drop south
towards the Mid-Atlantic states, with a large associated area of
high pressure over the Great Lakes. Northeasterly winds on the west
side of the high will help reinforce a weak frontal boundary that
will set up just to our south and west Monday. Not overly excited
with the severe weather potential Monday, as given the position of
the front the best forcing should stay to our southwest. Shear and
instability are also less impressive than today. But if a storm can
develop, still a low chance it produces some small hail or gusty
winds. Some low rain and storm chances than linger Tuesday through
Thursday, mainly towards central KS closer to the boundary.

By late week and into next weekend, a majority of guidance has some
sort of weak upper low slowly lifting northeast across the Southern
Plains. This should bring some higher rain chances back across most
of the area, with the details being dependent on the exact track and
strength of the system.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Have included a PROB30 group at TOP/FOE this evening where there is
potential for thunderstorm impacts. Outside of storms, VFR is
expected to continue until tonight when patchy fog development is
possible. Have enough confidence in reduced visibilities to go ahead
and include MVFR for a few hours tonight/early Monday at all sites.
However, if fog does develop, IFR cannot be ruled out. Updates will
be made if confidence grows. VFR returns after 14Z Monday.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Reese
AVIATION...Teefey