515
FXUS63 KTOP 251131
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
531 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow ends this morning with up to an additional inch southeast of
I-35.

- Wind chills remain very cold, particularly Monday morning when
they fall back to around -20 degrees.

- Temperatures fluctuate some through this week, but overall not
  as cold after Monday morning alongside dry weather.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 322 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

Mid-level trough is placed across the Northern Plains and into the
Rockies early this morning, and as the 700mb trough axis continues
to push east, winds turn northerly helping to weaken ascent and
advect dry air into the area. This has been pushing the back end of
the snowfall southeastward throughout the overnight hours, and its
exit seems to have moved a bit faster in the last hour or so. Have
adjusted the end time of the Winter Storm Warning earlier to 15Z and
will probably still be able to end it ahead of schedule for most, if
not all, counties. Locations southeast of I-35 may see another half
inch to an inch before all is said and done.

The rest of today sees sfc high pressure build into the area with
the return of some sunshine. The northerly winds won`t help us warm
up much with highs reaching the teens, but that is still an
improvement over yesterday. A shortwave looks to dive south across
the Rockies and High Plains tonight, although any additional
precipitation remains out in western KS with only high clouds
passing over us this evening into the overnight. This also comes
with a reinforcing shot of colder air, dropping temperatures back
below zero with wind chills around -20 degrees at their lowest
Monday morning.

Northwest flow aloft holds through this coming week with some weak
waves passing by at times. Precipitation chances look low at this
time with the more notable impacts being to temperatures. We
moderate somewhat early to mid-week as low-level flow turns
southwest to westerly Monday, helping us warm to the 20s. Tuesday
and Wednesday see highs into the 30s before a slight cool-down back
to the 20s late in the week. However, temperature spreads widen by
Thursday, likely related to differences in the timing and evolution
of a passing wave Friday, which could impact precipitation chances
as well. Confidence lowers toward the end of this forecast period as
a result.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 529 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

VFR conditions prevail as all snowfall has moved southeast of
terminals, leaving high clouds and light northerly winds in its
wake.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 205 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

            Record Low Temperature Jan 26  Forecast Low
Topeka       -10, set in 1904                  -9
Concordia    -10, set in 1902 and 1904         -6

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST Monday for KSZ008-KSZ009-
KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-
KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-
KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.
Winter Storm Warning until 9 AM CST this morning for KSZ026-
KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Picha
AVIATION...Picha
CLIMATE...Picha/Poage