991
FXUS63 KTOP 070744
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
244 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Next chance for widespread precipitation continues to be Saturday
  night (50-80% chance).

- Near to above normal temperatures through the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026

Northwest flow aloft will dominate through this forecast. The first
wave in this pattern arrives tonight with little in the way of
moisture or instability in place. Most CAMS develop weak
reflectivity but no measurable precipitation. Will continue with 10-
15 PoPs north nearer the wave. Moisture increases somewhat Friday
afternoon as a weak front moves through but looks to only support
post-frontal convection at best in southeastern areas. NBM PoPs
seemed too high per the bulk of recent guidance. The front washes
out into the weekend with somewhat greater moisture and modest
instability returning late Saturday into Saturday night, with PW
values around an inch and MUCAPE around 500 J/kg for a more likely
rain event, though still not looking for any severe weather or heavy
rainfall. Upper ridging builds north into the Rockies early next week
as surface high pressure reaches the Gulf creating little in the way
of precipitation potential despite a potential modified cold front
around Tuesday.

Warm-air advection on breezy southwest winds brings warmer
temperatures today with similar readings Friday. Further surges of
warm air come Saturday then Monday into Tuesday with highs in the
80s beyond the weekend being the rule. Dewpoints remain modest to
keep apparent temps close to air temps.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026

VFR conditions will continue in a dry lower and middle troposphere.
Winds remain modest from the southwest early and increase with
daytime mixing between surface pressure to the northwest and a
surface high to the south. The low should allow for winds to weak and
back around 00Z. Skies should clear over the next several hours but
enough wind in the column to keep BR formation in check.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Poage
AVIATION...Poage