104
FXUS63 KTOP 171043
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
543 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- 15-25% chance for showers and non-severe storms this morning into
  the early afternoon.

- Storm chances increase (20-35%) this afternoon, peaking this
  evening into the overnight hours across east central Kansas
  (40-65% chance). A couple of storms could be strong to severe
  and produce wind gusts up to 60 MPH and hail up to quarter
  size.

- A strong cold front moves through on Saturday with northwest
  winds gusting at 30-35 MPH behind the front during the
  afternoon.

- Feeling more like Fall behind the front beginning Sunday and
  continuing for much of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Early this morning, a closed upper low resides over the Dakotas with
a surface low analyzed across western Kansas. Convergence along a
surface trough coupled with weak isentropic ascent has allowed for
scattered showers and isolated storms to develop across north
central Kansas. The surface trough will push east across the
forecast area today, although minimal ascent will limit the coverage
of any showers and storms. Poor mid-level lapse rates will restrict
the amount of CAPE through the day, with the 00z HREF showing MUCAPE
values of less than 1000 J/kg. By later this afternoon and this
evening, steepening low-level lapse rates and good mixing will lead
to inverted-V soundings and DCAPE of around 1000 J/kg, which could
lead to some gusty winds within any storms that do develop. An
increase in the coverage of storms is still progged by CAMs after 7
PM and into the overnight hours across east central Kansas as
convergence along the surface-925mb front strengthens slightly.
Limited instability keeps the overall severe threat low, but
effective shear of 35-40 kts could support a couple of strong to
severe storms. The strongest storms could produce hail up to quarter
size and wind gusts up to 60 MPH. Storms exit the area to the east
by 3-4 AM.

A potent shortwave dives southeast across the Plains on Saturday,
shunting a strong cold front through the area during the daytime
hours. There could be enough residual moisture across east central
Kansas to support a shower or storm during the day, but guidance is
trending drier. Northwest winds become gusty as the front moves
through with winds gusts at 30-35 MPH Saturday afternoon. Surface
high pressure builds in Saturday night into Sunday, ushering in much
drier and cooler air. Lows Sunday morning will fall into the 40s,
with the potential for some upper 30s near the KS/NE stateline. It
will feel more like Fall on Sunday with highs only reaching the mid
60s to near 70 degrees.

Southerly low-level flow increases late Sunday into Monday before
another cold front moves through during the day Monday. A lack of
moisture favors a dry frontal passage. Temperatures warm back into
the 70s Monday afternoon before cooling back into the 60s for
Tuesday. Another front is progged to move through Wednesday into
Thursday. Moisture is still quite limited, but may be sufficient to
support some light rain.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 543 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

VFR conditions expected through the majority of the period.
South-southwest winds increase after sunrise with gusts of 20-25kts
this morning into the early afternoon before winds begin to weaken.
Chances for showers or storms near terminals this morning into
the afternoon are too low for inclusion. Best chances for showers
or storms come this evening at KTOP/KFOE, but uncertainty in
timing and location remains. Have input a PROB30 for the most
likely period of precipitation near these terminals.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Flanagan
AVIATION...Flanagan