668
FXUS63 KTOP 271105
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
605 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- One more day of extreme heat today. Somewhat cooler Tuesday and
  cooler yet late this week into the weekend.

- Small (10-30%) chance for showers and thunderstorms late tonight
  through Wednesday. Somewhat greater chances Wednesday night
  through Thursday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Anomalous upper high over the Four Corners continues to dominate
local conditions with above normal 850 mb temperatures and still
quite humid surface conditions. Recent 24-hour surface ob change
plots showing a warming though drying boundary layer and see no
reason why this will not continue today with slightly warmer 850 mb
temp and stronger mixing progged. Highs in the upper 90s to around
102 should be common with dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s
supporting heat indices reaching 108 to 114 for most locations,
justifying the going Extreme Heat Warning. Isolated convection in
eastern Nebraska recently forming on mid-level warm-air advection on
the nose of the low-level jet looks to remain northeast of northeast
Kansas.

The upper pattern slowly changes later today through the remainder
of the forecast. A shortwave moving through the Great Lakes ushers a
modified cold front across the area late tonight into Tuesday. This
will drop temperatures at least a bit, but given dewpoint trends of
late, confidence in their specifics is not high, and could still
bring oppressive heat. Further, a weaker wave looks to spark
convection over western Nebraska this afternoon, with some CAMs
bringing weakening showers and storms into the area late tonight
into Tuesday, with a few members keeping some organization to
convection this far southeast despite increasing MLCIN. Chances for
severe weather via downburst winds look less than 10 percent and
only in portions of north-central Kansas, but lingering precip and
convective debris would keep conditions cooler as well. Current
forecast values have afternoon heat indices close to Advisory levels
in southeastern areas, bringing a fourth day of notable heat, and
will keep the Extreme Heat Watch going in much of east central
Kansas.

Upper flow becomes more northerly by late week, with a continued
signal for a decent shortwave diving south-sotheast through the mid-
Mississippi River Valley Thursday into Thursday night for at least
moderate precipitation chances locally. Post-frontal northwest flow
keeps small precipitation chances in place ahead of this.
Temperatures close to normal Wednesday and Thursday drop further
behind this wave for the remainder of the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 605 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

VFR conditions will continue. Brief minor gusts look possible for a
few hours around 20Z from an otherwise modest south wind until a
weak front approaches late in the forecast. The potential for high-
based convection comes late as well though this potential appears
too low for inclusion.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ008-KSZ009-
KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-
KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-
KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.
Extreme Heat Watch from this evening through Tuesday evening for
KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Poage
AVIATION...Poage