360
FXUS63 KTOP 202321
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
621 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat indicies of 105-110 today.

- Better chances for showers and storms are expected Wednesday
  through Friday with high in the 80s.

- A hot and dry pattern is forecast to redevelop this weekend causing
  temperatures to warm back into the middle and upper 90s by Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 127 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Strong upper ridging currently centered over the central High Plains
continues to support hot conditions across the forecast area, with
heat indices in the 105-110 range this afternoon. Ensemble and
deterministic guidance show the upper ridge beginning to shift west
and south by Tuesday. A shortwave trough moving through the northern
Plains will drive a cold front south across northeast Kansas during
the day. This should lead to a slightly cooler day as dewpoints fall
through the afternoon behind the front. Wednesday, it will feel
noticeably cooler with highs in the 80s and dewpoints in the 50s. As
the front settles just south of the area, shortwave energy embedded
within northwest flow aloft will bring increasing chances for showers
and thunderstorms Wednesday night into Thursday. Associated cloud
cover should also help keep highs near to below climatological
normal for this time of the year, with highs in the upper 70s to low
80s. By Friday into the weekend, the upper ridge is favored to
reexpand eastward from the southern Plains, allowing a return to
warmer temperatures with highs back into the lower to mid90s and
lower, more isolated thunderstorm chances.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 617 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

VFR conditions continue through this period. A wind shift comes near
sunrise with FROPA with winds shifting to the NNE and increasing
during the morning into the afternoon. Could see some high based
post frontal showers but chances of any making it this far south into
the terminals appears to be too low to include.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-
KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-
KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-
KSZ058-KSZ059.
Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ058-KSZ059.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Jones
AVIATION...Drake