135
FXUS63 KTOP 240902
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
402 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers with a few embedded thunderstorms generally exit the area
by mid morning then a few showers may linger especially across
eastern areas into midday and early afternoon.

- Heat will be the primary weather concern this weekend into early
next week.  An Extreme Heat Watch has been issued for Saturday
through Tuesday. Expect heat indices to reach around 105-110 degrees.

- Any cool down into the end of next week appears to be limited with
any weak cold front not doing much to change the airmass that will
be in place across the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Current WV satellite imagery along with RAOB data show the
Westerlies in a mostly zonal flow regime across southern Canada.  A
semi-permanent anticyclone continues to remain in place over the
western CONUS into the Desert Southwest. Some flattening on the
northern flank of this dome of high pressure has allowed for a weak
perturbation to transit the northern into central Rockies and has
been steadily working over western portions of the area. This, along
with return flow and a weak LLJ overnight have allowed for a WAA
regime to keep a well developed area of showers with a few embedded
thunderstorms going as they steadily move east. Mid level lapse
rates have fallen below 6 C/km which has coincided with a drop in
overall lightning production through the entire night into early
morning hours. A few areas over central into north central Kansas
experience high rainfall totals earlier last evening into the early
overnight period which resulted in a few flood related warnings and
advisories. From, here it looks like the high rainfall amounts have
been had. Weak isentropic ascent eventually wanes into midday as the
upper wave transitions overhead and east of the area into this
afternoon. Thus expecting clouds to linger even after the showers
come to an end by midday in the early afternoon.

Saturday morning could see some fog form across the area as skies
clear tomorrow night and winds remain calm. Wouldn`t rule out some
areas of patchy dense fog but confidence in coverage is low right
now so have held off mention.

Heat then becomes the primary forecast headline into Saturday
through Tuesday across the area. The western ridge builds once again
and intensifies Sunday and Monday especially with H85 temperatures
rising to around 30C which will help push air temp values to near
triple digits in some areas with ensemble data and NBM percentiles
showing little spread leading to high confidence in heat headlines
being necessary once again. Have opted to go with an Extreme Heat
Watch at this time due to the duration and intensity of the expected
heat.  Will likely need 4 days of heat headlines across the entire
area or at least most of the area heading into Tuesday.
Unfortunately, there appears to be little relief from this heat wave
as the cool down only takes heat index values to the upper 90s which
may feel cool by comparison into next weekend. Any modified cold
front on the easter flank of the semi-permanent western ridge is
likely too weak to matter much to change the overall airmass
characteristics and likely mainly dry as well.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

For the balance of tonight into early this morning, showers and
storms generally work west to east across the area. The first batch
is trending to move mainly south of I-70 leaving more isolated to
scattered showers and a storm or two north of I-70 which is reason to
leave VCTS mention at this time. Then from west to east, there could
be a lull in activity until an hour or two before sunrise. As the
upper wave swings into the area from the west, more widespread
showers are expected to develop and last through mid-morning before
exiting the area. May see brief MVFR to IFR conditions with the
showers and storms but then more uncertainty in stratus into the
midday and afternoon time frame. Have maintained VFR levels for now
but cloud bases could drop into the marginal VFR categories into the
afternoon and remain slow to clear the area. Will continue to watch
trends into the morning over western areas to better gauge the extent
of possible afternoon low-level stratus.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Watch from Saturday afternoon through Tuesday evening
for KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-
KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-
KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Drake
AVIATION...Drake