648
FXUS63 KTOP 201713
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1113 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog again this morning, some locally dense fog is possible.

- Widespread showers and a few embedded thunderstorms build from
  south to north across the area this evening into Friday.

- Dry and seasonable this weekend before another round of widespread
  rain builds in Sunday night into early Tuesday.

- Colder air builds in Wednesday through the end of next week,
  accompanied by low (15-20%) precipitation chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 314 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Southwesterly mid-level flow stretches from northern Mexico into the
Central Plains this morning ahead of a closed low located over
western Arizona. A shortwave moving through the mean flow along with
some isentropic ascent generated showers and a few storms across
east central and southeast Kansas overnight, but this activity is
waning and conditions become dry before sunrise this morning. High
boundary layer moisture and calm surface winds will again favor some
fog development including some locally dense fog. Uncertainty
remains in how widespread and dense fog will become, but thinking
conditions will be similar to the past few nights with just some
patchy dense fog before mixing out later this morning.

Mostly dry conditions are expected through the morning into the
afternoon before the aforementioned closed low lifts northeast
across the Central and Southern Plains this evening and overnight.
Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms will build into the area
from south to north this evening and continue into the day on
Friday. Rain may be more scattered by Friday afternoon, especially
along and south of Interstate 70 before coming to an end Friday
evening. PWATs of 1.25" along with some weak instability will
allow for some heavier downpours, although not expecting any
flooding issues. The majority of HREF members produce at least
1" of rainfall for most areas across northeast Kansas with
localized amounts close to 2".

Shortwave mid-level ridging builds overhead this weekend ahead of
yet another closed low that tracks from the Desert Southwest into
the Plains Sunday into Monday. Guidance has trended faster with the
progression of this wave, but still expecting another widespread
round of showers starting Sunday evening/night and continuing into
early Tuesday. Temperatures remain seasonable with highs primarily
in the 50s.

A strong cold front will push through the area by Wednesday,
bringing in a cold Canadian high pressure. Below-normal temperatures
are favored Wednesday through the end of next week. Ensembles remain
mixed on precipitation chances Wed-Fri, but even those that do
develop some precipitation only show minor amounts. Plenty of
uncertainty remains, but with temperatures cold enough to
support some snow around a busy travel time, it is worth
staying up to date with the latest forecast information.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1113 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Model guidance is handling the current fog and low stratus
very poorly. However with the warm front still well to our south and
light east winds at the surface, think the IFR to LIFR ceilings and
visibilities 1-2 miles will continue through the afternoon. There
may be a brief break just ahead of an area of rain as it moves north
into the area overnight, but lower ceilings and visibilities should
move back in with the rain. After that, doesn`t look like we`ll see
much improvement until the very end of the period mid-day tomorrow.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for KSZ010-KSZ011-
KSZ012-KSZ024-KSZ026.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Flanagan
AVIATION...Reese