426
FXUS63 KTOP 061027
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
527 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect until Tuesday evening.
  Afternoon heat index values will reach 100-108 degrees.

- Scattered storms develop this afternoon and evening, a couple
  of which could be strong to severe and produce wind gusts
  around 60 MPH and hail up to 1" in diameter.

- A cold front will move through the area Tuesday evening/night,
  bringing chances for showers and storms along with relief
  from the excessive heat through the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 217 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Mid-level ridging remains overhead early this morning with energy
rounding the apex of the ridge sparking convection across the High
Plains. This activity will slowly move southeast and could lead to
some showers across north central Kansas, but should largely
dissipate before reaching the forecast area. Cloud cover and light
east-southeast surface winds near a weak backdoor cold front will
limit warming to some degree, but still expect temperatures to heat
up into the mid and upper 90s with peak heat index values around 100-
105 degrees. An uncapped and unstable airmass this afternoon will
support scattered thunderstorm development, mainly along a
convergence axis across eastern Kansas. Strong to severe storms are
possible given 20-25kts of effective shear and SBCAPE of 1500-2000
J/kg. Inverted-V soundings and DCAPE of 1100-1300 J/kg favor
damaging wind gusts around 60 MPH as the primary hazard, with hail
up to quarter size being a lower probability threat. Most likely
timing for initiation is 2-4 PM with storms continuing into the
evening hours before dissipating. There is still some potential for
a complex that develops north of the forecast area to move into
Kansas during the evening. CAMs have mixed ideas on the location of
this complex with the majority keeping this round east of the
forecast area. These storms could produce damaging wind gusts if
they do impact far northeast Kansas.

Uncertainty remains in temperatures on Monday as cloud cover and
precipitation may linger through the morning with the potential for
a convective cold pool to move through the area as well.
Temperatures may be slower to warm up, especially across far
northeast Kansas, but there is good consensus in a southerly wind
working to overcome any outflow-cooled air and bump temperatures
back into the 90s by Monday afternoon. There remains a low (<10%)
chance for a shower or storm to develop Monday afternoon, but a lack
of focused ascent favors mostly dry conditions. Temperatures and
heat indices are more marginal for an Excessive Heat Warning today
and Monday across northern portions of the area, but heat index
values will still reach near 100 degrees and the prolonged duration
of the current heat wave leads to an increased risk of heat-related
illnesses. As such, have not make any changes to the Extreme Heat
Warning.

A pattern change is still progged to occur Tuesday into Wednesday as
a potent shortwave ejects east across the Northern Plains towards
the Great Lakes, shunting a cold front into the central CONUS. Ahead
of the front, southwesterly winds will boost temperatures into the
upper 90s to around 100 degrees again Tuesday afternoon with heat
index values of 100-108 degrees. As the front moves into the
forecast area Tuesday evening and night, showers and storms are
expected to develop along the boundary and slowly translate south
into Wednesday. The overall severe risk is low, but there could be
some hail or gusty winds within this activity. The front hangs up
somewhere in the region through the end of the week, leading to
continued chances for showers and storms. Cooler temperatures build
into the area behind the front with highs in the 80s on Thursday,
warming back into the upper 80s and low 90s to end the week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 527 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

VFR conditions expected. Light east-southeast winds continue
through the period. Still some uncertainty in location and
coverage of storms this afternoon/evening, so will maintain the
PROB30 group for KTOP and KFOE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 217 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Record highest minimum temperature information:

                      Record                   Forecast

September 7  Topeka     77, set in 1939 & 2016    72
 Concordia  79, set in 1922           75

September 8  Topeka     78, set in 1983           75
 Concordia  77, set in 1947 & 1983    79

Record high temperature information:

September 8  Topeka     104, set in 2013          101
 Concordia  102, set in 2013          102

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ008-KSZ009-
KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-
KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-
KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Flanagan
AVIATION...Flanagan
CLIMATE...Flanagan/Poage