321
FXUS63 KTOP 270659
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
159 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe storms continue west to east through the overnight hours
  into early Monday morning with large hail up to 2 inches in
  diameter the main threat with some stronger gusty outflows
  possible as well. Tornado threat is low, but not zero.

- Possible redevelop of storms for far eastern portions of the state
  early Monday afternoon along the cold front but most of the
  activity will shift east.

- Coolest day of the week Monday afternoon with a warming trend
  through the  rest of the week but still on the cooler than average
  side for this time of year.

- Next chance for precipitation comes Thursday night into Friday for
  northeastern portions of the viewing area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Upper level low evident on IR pushing east across southern Canada
with a positively oriented L/W trough extending southwestward
through the Desert Southwest. WV shows the main finger of the PFJ
around the base of the aforementioned trough extending through the
High/Great Plains with southwest flow for the CWA. Associated cold
front that has sparked the ongoing severe thunderstorms is along this
line from north central to southwest KS with ample difluence aloft
ahead of all of this. This has given ample exhaust to the lifting and
instability that will extend through the overnight hours. Current
severe watch during this time as storm activity has increased the
past couple of hours west to east giving way to ample elevated
convection with the associated warm front lifting north along this
west to east boundary evident on radar. Predominant threats has been
hail up to 1 to 2 inches in diameter with gusty outflows possible
(30-40%) of up to 40 to 50 mph. Steep lapse rates continue through
the path of the shortwave as evident on some 00Z soundings, in
particular DDC. Tornado threat has diminished, but not totally out of
the question due to the earlier convection that tends to eat away at
the instability, especially into the overnight hours. With the west
to east entrainment, storm coverage and severity should be on the
decline into the early Monday morning hours but possible flooding
could come to fruition by daybreak that will keep an eye on in the
coming hours.

Otherwise, storms will exit east with the associated cold front but
models show it stall further east that will spark another round of
convection early Monday afternoon. However, the thermodynamics of
the system will be mainly on the "cooler" side that will keep severe
storm development further into MO. If any severe storms do develop
for far eastern portions of the CWA, they will quickly race out by
mid afternoon. Beyond that, expect Monday afternoon to be the coolest
day of the week with a warming/mainly dry trend but still on the
cooler than average side for the end of April through the remainder
of the work week and into the weekend as the aforementioned trough
pushes north and northeastward. Westerly zonal flow mostly during the
time with a ripple extending south from the previous upper level low
that could extend down to northeastern portions of the CWA Thursday
night into Friday. Impacts look to be low at this point but something
to keep an eye on in the coming days.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 938 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Numerous rain showers and thunderstorms will pass through the area
from the start of the TAF period until about 13Z. Large hail and
damaging wind will be possible (40%) with all storms. PROB30 groups
have been changed to TEMPO groups as the chance of impacts at
terminals is over 80%. Conditions will drop to IFR as storms impact
terminals, with prevailing MVFR conditions through at least Monday
morning. Low clouds (BKN030) will hang around KTOP and KFOE through
Monday afternoon, with improvement by 01Z Tuesday. Wind will remain
from the east tonight with a wind shift behind the front by 14-15Z.
Wind will be breezy behind the front averaging 10-15 knots, with
gusts of 15 to 20 knots through Monday afternoon. Wind will then
become more northerly Monday evening.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-
KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ039-KSZ040.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Lowe
AVIATION...Blair