230
FXUS63 KTOP 132323
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
623 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat indices reaching 100 to 115 this afternoon with slightly
  cooler conditions each day through Monday. Excessive Heat Warning
  for most locations through Friday afternoon.

- Storm chances build late this afternoon into this evening in western
  and northern areas with a few severe wind-producing storms
  possible. Small severe storm risks again late Friday and late
  Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Another MCS traversing locations to the north pushed another outflow
boundary across the area early today but most locations again have
quickly recovered with early afternoon temps in the 90s and
dewpoints in the lower 70s. Objective analysis shows modest surface
low pressure over west-central Kansas which will nudge east over the
next several hours. Convergence near the low and diminishing CIN
should allow for at least isolated storms to form in central Kansas
and spread northeast in the southwest flow aloft. Shear remains
somewhat weak but MLCAPE and DCAPE would support severe downburst
winds into the early evening with a decent low-level jet giving some
support as well. Chances for additional showers and storms remain in
the forecast into the weekend along and behind the front and any
outflow. Severe weather potential is a little more nebulous but
decent mid-level flow and moderate instability will bring some
concern for stronger storms, mainly in the late afternoon and
evening with better MLCAPE and DCAPE develop. Small storm chances
return in the middle to late part of next week as southerly low-
level flow returns under zonal flow aloft.

Heat indices are in the triple digits most places at 19Z and today
could bring the highest such values of this stretch. Over the next
few days, outflow and synoptic boundary locations should slowly push
south through the area for slowly cooling conditions. Confidence in
neither Advisory-level heat in the north Friday nor in the remainder
of the area Saturday to extended the Warnings is not high enough for
any headline changes at this point. It`s not impossible for elevated
heat to linger into Sunday if a drier/slower front works out. Monday
and Tuesday still look the coolest though EPS 850mb temperature
anomalies point to some warming again Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 621 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Thunderstorms are expected to approach KMHK early this period and
impact the terminal for a few hours. Have included a PROB30 group at
KMHK for rain/storm potential tonight too. Strong downburst winds
could occur near storms. Have kept TOP terminals dry but will monitor
trends to see if precip needs to be added. For now, confidence is too
low that far east.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-
KSZ011-KSZ012.
Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Friday for KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-
KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-
KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Poage
AVIATION...Teefey