614
FXUS63 KTOP 271716
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1216 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a low chance (15-20%) for a storm to develop this
  afternoon/evening. If a storm forms, it could be strong to
  severe.

- Hot and humid conditions are expected Sunday through much of
  next week. Afternoon heat indices reach 100 to 110 degrees
  each afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 211 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Zonal mid-level flow persists across the Central Plains this morning
with a convectively enhanced shortwave moving across Kansas.
Abundant low-level moisture has allowed for low clouds to fill back
in overnight, with some fog developing as well. Fog could become
dense in spots and will monitor observations for the need of a Dense
Fog Advisory. The aforementioned shortwave is pushing showers and
storms from western Kansas towards the forecast area, but expect
this activity is decrease in intensity and coverage as it
approaches. There could be some showers or a rumble of thunder this
morning before activity wanes.

Decreasing cloud cover through the day will allow for
destabilization of the atmosphere and SBCAPE will rise to 2500-3500
J/kg by this afternoon. Shear also increases through the day,
although large-scale ascent is still progged to be weak. CAMs fail
to develop any convection due to a slight capping inversion and lack
of focused ascent. While the chance for any storm to develop remains
low (15-20%), any mesoscale feature (MCV or remnant outflow) could
provide enough ascent to generate a storm or two in a favorable
environment for severe weather this afternoon/evening.

The first prolonged stretch of dangerous heat so far this summer
begins Sunday as mid-level ridging amplifies across the Mississippi
Valley. Gusty south winds will boost temperatures into the 90s with
dew points in the mid 60s to mid 70s each day from Sunday through
much of next week. This will create heat indices in the upper 90s to
as hot as 110 degrees each afternoon. An Extreme Heat Watch has been
issued for the entire forecast area from Sunday through Tuesday, but
heat headlines are likely to be needed beyond Tuesday as well. There
is still some uncertainty in how high heat indices will reach,
especially across north central Kansas where dew points may be
slightly lower Tue-Wed. However, the prolonged nature of the heat
with limited overnight relief (lows in the mid to upper 70s) will
lead to cumulative heat impacts. This may support an Extreme Heat
Warning area-wide even if afternoon heat indices are more
borderline, around 100 degrees, at times. Waves of energy on the
western periphery of the ridge could spark convection across the
High Plains midweek. Showers/storms may approach north central
Kansas, but confidence in timing and location of any showers/storms
is low this far out.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

MVFR CIGs will continue to scatter out over the first hour of the
TAF leaving scattered Cu though the afternoon. Winds keep the
boundary layer fairly mixed through the period with some low-level
turbulent mixing possible in the early hours of Sunday. Winds
increase for the later portion of the TAF with gusts approaching 30
mph out of the south/southwest.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Watch from Sunday afternoon through Tuesday evening
for KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-
KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-
KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Flanagan
AVIATION...Griesemer