315
FXUS63 KTOP 222348
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
648 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and storms late tonight-Saturday morning as
  a cold front sweeps southward through the region.

- Taste of fall arrives next week, featuring highs in the 70s,
  lows in the 50s and occasional rain chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 219 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Upper ridge axis centers over the Four Corners region this
afternoon, stretching eastward into the Missouri valley. Closed
upper low and accompanied cold front is observed across Nebraska,
noted by an uptick in low and mid level clouds. This front is
progged to enter north central Kansas by mid-evening amid forecast
soundings exhibiting near 2500 J/KG of MUCAPE and 25 kts of bulk mid
level shear. If updrafts organize in southern Nebraska, there is low
likelihood for storms to produce gusty winds around 50 mph as they
enter locations near and north of the highway 36 corridor.
Instability and overall forcing drops off considerably overnight as
the front progresses through the CWA. Highest chances (30-50%) are
focused west of highway 75 where confidence in scattered showers
persists through the mid morning Saturday. Low clouds gradually exit
with the front by the afternoon as north winds increase from 10 to
15 mph sustained. No major changes were made to forecast highs as
sunny skies allow temps to return into the low and middle 80s.

Predominant northwest flow aloft returns Sunday, essentially
dividing the state on the eastern edge of the upper ridge. There is
decent model agreement for an embedded wave to pass through the
western half of KS Sunday evening into Monday. Highest QPF amounts
remain south and west of the area, however cannot rule out showers
and isolated thunder impacting north central and portions of
northeast Kansas on Monday morning. The lingering showers and
widespread cloud cover Monday afternoon led to high confidence in
below normal highs in the lower 70s. That confidence begins to wane
towards the end of the forecast period with possible embedded
disturbances and associated rain/clouds keeping temps on the lower
side (low 70s) versus ample sun and highs in the upper 70s-low 80s
Wednesday and Thursday. The NBM is siding closer to the GFS
ensembles with the widespread rain and cloud cover so will need to
monitor trends for warmer/drier conditions mid next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 644 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

A weak cold front will push through the terminals overnight
tonight, shifting winds out of the north. Some showers, possibly
an isolated rumble of thunder will be be possible early Saturday
morning, but opted to keep mention at VCSH due to low confidence
in overall coverage of precipitation. MVFR stratus will try to
build in at all terminals around sunrise Saturday before
scattering out around midday. Expect winds to increase to around
10 mph early Saturday morning from the north/northeast and
persisting through the TAF.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Prieto
AVIATION...Griesemer