302
FXUS63 KTOP 061049
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
449 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe storms are possible this afternoon and evening, with
  large hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes.

- Dry weather returns this weekend with above average
  temperatures into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 126 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

A highly amplified, negatively tilted shortwave trough is
ejecting out of the Rockies. In response, a deep surface low is
developing across western Kansas, and a stout 50-60 kt southerly
low-level jet is rapidly advecting Gulf moisture northward,
pushing surface dewpoints into the 60s. Several clusters of
thunderstorms have developed across portions of eastern Kansas
in response to the warm/moist advection and strong low-level
jet. These storms have been elevated and are generally producing
only small hail and gusty winds. While the strongest of these
storms may be capable of quarter-sized hail and 60 mph wind
gusts, the most common impacts expected early this morning will
be pea-sized hail and wind around 50 mph.

A stout stratus deck is developing in response to the warm/moist
advection. This stratus deck will play a pivotal role in
determining the evolution of our severe risk later today. If the
morning stratus is slow to erode, insolation will be limited,
thereby limiting instability and the higher-end severe threat.
However, if the boundary layer clears sufficiently this
afternoon, explosive destabilization will occur. If discrete
supercells are rooted in a cleared boundary layer ahead of the
cold front this afternoon, then all severe threats will be
possible. These isolated cells will have the potential to
produce hail exceeding 2 inches in diameter and tornadoes, given
the low-level streamwise vorticity and stout low and mid-level
shear. The most likely area for clearing to develop is near the
surface triple point (north of Salina) late this afternoon.

By around 7 PM, the advancing cold front will aggressively
overtake the dryline across central Kansas, forcing a shift from
discrete supercells (if any form) into a Quasi-Linear Convective
System (QLCS) as it moves into eastern Kansas. This will reduce
the more significant hail and tornado threats but increase the
more widespread damaging straight-line wind and embedded QLCS
mesovortex tornado threat (typically weaker, smaller, and more
short-lived than supercell tornadoes). The severe threat will
continually propagate eastward and exit the CWA by midnight as
the cold front exits the area and high pressure builds in. The
rest of the weekend looks dry and mild. Another storm system may
move into the area on Tuesday and potentially bring another
threat for severe storms, but there is a lot of uncertainty
regarding the track of the system and its potential impacts.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 442 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

VFR, becoming MVFR by 16z at all TAF sites. Showers and isolated
thunderstorms continue across portions of east central Kansas
this morning. The bulk of this activity is expected to be south
and east of the KMHK terminal, but is more likely to impact the
Topeka terminals over the next few hours. This activity will
exit to the east later this morning. Low stratus will build in
behind the departing precipitation and linger at the Topeka
terminals through at least the early evening. A cold front will
swing through this evening and some severe storms may come along
with it. The most likely timeframe for the front/storms this
evening is between 02-04z at KMHK and 04-06z at KTOP/KFOE. There
is a low chance (10-20%) that some isolated storms may develop
in the late afternoon, but confidence is too low at this point
to put anything more than a prob30 group in.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Jones
AVIATION...Jones