521
FXUS63 KTOP 292321
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
621 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat continues for at least the next week. Highs in the mid to
upper 90s each day with heat indices 100 to 105.

- Staying mostly dry through the week. A few low chances for
showers, mainly towards the Nebraska border.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 224 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Heat has returned across the area today, as upper ridging over the
Four Corners area spreads eastward. This upper ridge will continue
to shift east over the next day before becoming locked in place over
the central CONUS the rest of the week. Meanwhile west of the ridge,
a deep upper low over the western CONUS will allow for lee troughing
to develop across the High Plains. This will keep the 850 mb thermal
ridge axis in place across the area for about the next week. Mixing
will be a bit deeper than some of our prior episodes of heat this
summer, so while temperatures will reach the mid/upper 90s (possibly
100 in spots) each afternoon, dewpoints will stay in the 60s.
Nevertheless, we may need a Heat Advisory at some point, as current
heat index forecasts are in the 100 to 105 range each day through
Thursday. Considered issuing one this afternoon, but will wait one
more forecast cycle to see how deep moisture mixes out this
afternoon across central Kansas. If dewpoints stay on the higher end
of guidance through this afternoon, I`ll be more confident that we
reach that 105 heat index threshold for an advisory tomorrow.

With persistent lee troughing, a decent pressure gradient across the
Plains will also keep breezy southerly winds in place each day. This
will be a double edged sword, as the stronger afternoon winds will
make the heat slightly more tolerable, but the continued overnight
mixing will prevent temperatures from cooling off as much. Low
temperatures look to stay mostly in the upper 70s, near record warm
values.

As upper ridging stays in control across the area, most of the next
week will stay dry. Any more notable shortwaves will stay well to our
north. However with a strong low-level jet centered a bit too our
west, it`s not completely out of the question we could see a few
scattered showers or storms sneak into far north-central KS. This
would be most likely during the overnight or morning hours, if any
convection can develop from any stronger isentropic ascent within the
LLJ. No one day with any more notable signal, but the pattern
suggests it can`t be ruled out.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 621 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

VFR conditions will continue in a relatively dry lower and middle
troposphere. Winds and LLWS are the main challenge. The low level jet
appears to set up closer to the ground tonight but this should enable
stronger mixing with some occasional overnight gusts possible. With
limited change in wind direction, will keep LLWS out of the forecast.
Gusts near 30 knots appear possible at times for the last half of the
forecast.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Record highest minimum temperature information:

                      Record                   Forecast
August 30    Topeka     79, set in 1932            77
             Concordia  78, set in 1951            79


August 31    Topeka     77, set in 1912 and 1947   79
             Concordia  81, set in 1947            78


September 1  Topeka     81, set in 2011            79
             Concordia  80, set in 1913            79


September 2  Topeka     80, set in 2011            79
             Concordia  79, set in 1929            77


September 3  Topeka     77, set in 1939            78
             Concordia  80, set in 1947            77

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Reese
AVIATION...Poage
CLIMATE...Poage