504
FXUS63 KTOP 080854
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
254 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm today and especially tomorrow, then turning cold again by the
weekend.

- Dry pattern continues. No notable precipitation chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

Northwest flow remains in place this morning across the central US,
but compared to the past few days the main ridge/trough axes have
moved farther east. With southerly flow returning behind a departing
area of high pressure, this will allow for a more notable warmup
compared to our last couple weeks of chilly conditions. Highs climb
into the 40s today, with an additional surge of WAA boosting
temperatures into the 50s for Tuesday. Some spots may even reach 60
on Tuesday, especially western portions of the forecast area.

A sharper temperature gradient will set up across the middle part of
the country Wednesday into the weekend, as the eastern
trough/western ridge pattern amplifies. Confidence continues to
increase on the general day-to-day location of this gradient, though
small changes in the placement of upper waves will still likely lead
to some waffling in exact temperature forecasts. That said, it looks
like Wednesday and Thursday we`ll be on the warmer side of the
gradient, with the core of the cold staying to the north. This
should keep highs generally in the 40s, close to average. Heading
into the weekend, a stronger Canadian high will bring colder air
farther south across the region. Still questions on exact
temperatures, depending on the overall amplitude of the pattern, but
confidence is increasing (>80%) that we`ll see another day or two of
sub-freezing high temperatures. In regards to precipitation, it
appears we`ll continue to stay dry. This pattern favors Alberta
Clipper type systems tracking across the Northern Plains and Upper
Midwest, staying mostly to our north. Can`t rule out some weak
frontogenetical band at some point through the weekend, but overall
the pattern is not favorable for rain/snow chances.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1126 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Skies have briefly cleared at KTOP and KFOE this evening,
but MVFR ceilings are moving back in from the west. Expecting a few
more brief holes in these clouds, but once they arrive in a few
hours expect MVFR ceilings to prevail through mid-morning
before they scatter out. Otherwise, light and variable winds
tonight become more southerly at around 10 kts during the day
tomorrow.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Reese
AVIATION...Reese