007
FXUS63 KTOP 060507
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1207 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Moderate confidence for widely scattered storms to develop Sunday
  afternoon through early evening across portions of eastern and far northeast
  Kansas. Main hazard with these storms would be gusty winds to near
  60 mph.

- Occasional storm chances become more likely (30-60%) Tuesday evening
  through Thursday as a frontal boundary settles into the
  region.

- The dangerous heat persists through Tuesday with peak heat indices each
  afternoon around 105 degrees. Relief arrives with the front mid
  week as temps fall back to the low 90s, perhaps 80s in some
  locations.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 125 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Mid level ridge axis is centered over the central conus this
afternoon. Embedded perturbations along the northern periphery have
resulted in clusters of storms towards northern Nebraska. At the
sfc, temps are quickly heating into the upper 90s and should peak
near 100 this afternoon as southerly winds sustain near 10 mph.
Given the weaker mixing, dewpoints hover around 70 degrees,
resulting in peak heat indices around 105 today. No changes were
made to the Extreme Heat Warning as the ridge will persist in the
region through at least Tuesday evening.

Focus turns to Sunday afternoon as latest short term CAM guidance is
falling closer in line with the latest NAM/GFS/EC on a cluster of
storms forming in the Dakotas before dropping south and west along a
frontal boundary into northern MO. Majority of convection appears
confined to MO, but could still see a few storms develop across far
eastern KS through early evening.  BLCAPE is decent by this time
near 2000 J/KG while effective shear weakens further west and south
into our area so I would not expect storms to maintain severe
intensity for a prolonged period. If storms develop, main hazard
with these storms would be gusty winds up to 60 mph.

Cannot rule out a similar setup on Monday with the isolated storm
potential, however given mid level heights increasing north and
northeast during the day, I opted to keep pops below 10 percent for
now. Pattern shift commences Tuesday as an upper low tracks across
Canada, shifting the ridge eastward while developing low level
southwest troughing in the western high plains. A cold front enters
northern Kansas by late Tuesday evening, developing a line of
scattered storms towards Nebraska and portions of north central
areas overnight. Additional northern stream troughing will determine
how far south the front progresses Wednesday into Thursday as
ensemble clusters are varying on the speed of the front and
subsequent precip chances/temperatures. However given the synoptic
setup and boundary settled somewhere in the area, low chances for
occasional showers and storms remains reasonable Wednesday through
Friday. Most locations will likely remain dry. Cooler temps
gradually make into the forecast area by late week, returning highs
to near 90 degrees Thursday onward.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1207 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

VFR conditions expected. Winds stay light through the period,
generally from the east-southeast. Scattered storms develop
Sunday afternoon and evening with highest chances near KTOP/KFOE,
but coverage and location of storms remain uncertain. Included
a PROB30 group for now.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 125 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Record highest minimum temperature information:

                      Record                   Forecast

September 6  Topeka     78, set in 1970           74
 Concordia  81, set in 1939           75

September 7  Topeka     77, set in 1939 & 2016    72
 Concordia  79, set in 1922           74

September 8  Topeka     78, set in 1983           74
 Concordia  77, set in 1947 & 1983    78

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ008-KSZ009-
KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-
KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-
KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...22
AVIATION...Flanagan
CLIMATE...Flanagan/Poage