821
FXUS63 KTOP 011931
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
231 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low chance for a few strong to severe storms overnight tonight across
  north-central Kansas. Gusty winds and small hail are the main
  hazards.

- Additional chances (20-45%) for rain come Tuesday evening/night
  into Wednesday, mainly across central Kansas.

- Higher chances (30-50%) for more widespread rain come Thursday
  into the weekend.

- Temperatures remain near or slightly above normal, with highs
  in the 80s and lows in the 60s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 231 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Mid-level ridging holds strong over the Central and Southern Plains
this afternoon with an embedded gravity wave sparking showers and
isolated storms across the forecast area. Continual propagation to
the east-southeast has been noted through the day and there doesn`t
appear to be anything that would prevent this activity from
continuing for at least the next couple of hours. Additional
thunderstorms that develop across eastern Colorado and western
Kansas this evening will ride the ridge east and then southeast
across central Kansas. This complex is expected to weaken with
eastern extent as the cold pool pushes ahead of the leading edge.
CAMs show the strongest portion of the complex staying south of the
forecast area. Even so, the environment across northeast Kansas will
feature weak shear and 1000-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE by midnight,
gradually decreasing through the early morning hours. Thus, a few
strong wind gusts up to 60 MPH and small hail are possible, but the
severe risk should be confined to central and north central Kansas.

Showers and storms linger into Tuesday morning before dry
conditions return by the afternoon. There is a conditional risk
for a couple of storms to develop during the afternoon/evening
Tuesday, but this will be dependent upon mesoscale features
(such as remaining outflow boundaries) given a lack of focused
large-scale ascent. The majority of CAMs keep the forecast area
dry, with the HRRR and RRFS being the exception. If storms do
develop, they could produce gusty winds and small hail.

Another complex of showers and storms will develop across western
Kansas Tuesday evening and advance northeast towards the forecast
area into Wednesday morning. Intensity of this round of storms
should be weaker than the one tonight as instability will drop of
with eastern extent. Dry conditions return again Wednesday afternoon
before yet another area of showers and storms develops across the
High Plains and moves towards the area Wednesday night.

A shortwave works to flatten the ridge by Thursday and its passage
brings the next chance (30-50%) for showers and storms Thursday into
Friday. A closed upper low slowly lifts northeast across the Plains
this weekend, but guidance varies in speed of this wave and the most
likely timeframe for associated showers/storms. The signal for
severe weather isn`t overly strong at this point; CIPS and CSU
severe probabilities show a low chance (10% or less) for severe
weather Friday-Sunday.&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

VFR conditions expected. Current showers west of KMHK should
dissipate before reaching the site. There could be some shallow fog
overnight, mainly at KTOP, but think elevated winds just off the
surface and increasing clouds will limit fog development. Showers
and storms may approach KMHK after sunrise Tuesday, but confidence
in eastern extent of precipitation is too low to include in TAF.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Flanagan
AVIATION...Flanagan