796
FXUS63 KTOP 180817
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
317 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fog impacts the area this morning, including some locally dense
  fog. Any fog should burn off by 9 AM or so.

- A strong cold front moves through the area today with
  northwest winds gusting at 30-40 MPH behind the front this
  afternoon and evening.

- Feeling more like Fall behind the front starting Sunday and
  continuing through next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

Southwest flow aloft is present across the Central Plains this
morning with a southern stream shortwave near the TX/OK panhandles
and a more vigorous trough over the Northern Plains. A surface
trough has stalled across the forecast area with the stronger
cold front still well north of the area across southern South
Dakota. Light winds, clearing skies, and high boundary layer
moisture ahead of the aforementioned surface trough has allowed
for some fog to develop. Uncertainty remains in how dense and
widespread fog will become, but the potential is there for at
least some patchy dense fog until after sunrise when mixing
ensues.

The Northern Plains trough dives southeast through the day today,
shunting a strong cold front through the area during the afternoon.
As the southern stream wave pushes east-northeast, moisture and lift
across east central Kansas will likely be sufficient for some
showers and storms to develop through the day before the front
shunts all activity to the east by this evening. Northwest winds
become gusty as the front moves through with winds gusts at 30-40
MPH this afternoon and evening before relaxing overnight as surface
high pressure builds in. The passage of the front ushers in cooler
and drier air for Sunday with morning lows falling into the 40s,
with the potential for some upper 30s near the KS/NE stateline. It
will feel more like Fall on Sunday with highs only reaching the mid
60s to near 70 degrees.

Southerly low-level flow increases late Sunday into Monday before
another cold front moves through during the day Monday. A lack of
moisture favors a dry frontal passage. Temperatures warm back into
the 70s Monday afternoon before cooling back down into the 60s on
Tuesday under Northwest flow aloft. Dry conditions continue until a
closed low ejects across the Central and Southern Plains Thursday
into Friday with confidence increasing in more widespread
precipitation impacting the region during this timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1249 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

Scattered storms continue early this morning, especially near
KTOP/KFOE. This activity will wind down over the next couple of
hours. Clearing skies, high boundary layer moisture, and light
surface winds favor fog formation. However, uncertainty remains
in how fast skies clear and, thus, when fog will form and how
dense it will be. Input a mention of fog at all TAF sites and
will monitor trends. A strong cold front will move through this
afternoon with northwest winds gusting at 30-35 MPH.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Flanagan
AVIATION...Flanagan