621
FXUS63 KTOP 300826
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
326 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Heavy rainfall from overnight tapers off this morning. Additional
 showers and storms expected later today.

-Soggy conditions linger into the start of the weekend but temperatures
 stay mild.

-A strong storm system brings additional chances for rain early next
 week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 322 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

At 08Z and during the pre-dawn hours, a LLJ was nosing into northern
KS over a sfc boundary near I-70. Isentropic ascent within a moist
environment -- pwats around 1.3 inches exceeds the 90th percentile
for late October -- allowed for scattered storms with very heavy
rainfall rates of 2.0 and 3.0 inches per hour. Numerous flood
advisories and warnings were issued overnight, a few of which could
linger into early Friday. The trend into the daylight hours should be
for rain to largely exit the area as the LLJ subsides and the front
pushes northward. The exception may be in far northeast KS where some
isentropic ascent could continue near the boundary. Most of the area
will experience a brief break in precipitation until chances for
scattered showers and storms increase again this afternoon and
evening with the arrival of another surge of moisture ahead of an
approaching shortwave from the TX/OK panhandles. Storms will likely
remain sub-severe, but conditions will again support heavy rainfall
with rates of 1.5 inches per hour not out of the question. Additional
flooding could occur in spots that saw heavy rainfall overnight and
early this morning.

Rain is likely to linger into early Saturday with some continued
isentropic ascent as the shortwave moves over the area. Showers
should become less numerous into Saturday afternoon but conditions
will remain cloudy and damp area-wide. Southerly low level flow keeps
temperatures on the warm side of average with highs in the upper 60s
and low 70s. Models show another shortwave moving over Saturday
night and early Sunday, which could generate additional showers. Mid-
level ridging should then keep rain at bay to finish out the weekend.

Attention then turns to a digging, amplified trough axis approaching
the High Plains from the west on Monday. Lee cyclogenesis and a
rapid ejection of the sfc low into north-central KS and central NE
will enhance lift over the region resulting in showers and storms,
especially as a cold front quickly advances across the state
throughout the day. Dynamics of the system will be fairly strong
given a 50 to 60 kt LLJ, but instability looks to be somewhat
limited. A heavy rainfall potential will exist, but the system itself
should initially progress rather quickly. NBM is trending a little
higher with QPF on Monday compared to LREF, however both show the
heaviest rainfall occurring across far eastern KS where 1.5 to 2.0
inches of rain is expected by early Tuesday. The upper low could
then become cutoff from the main flow and may linger over the area.
Models don`t agree well on the evolution of the low past Tuesday so
will have to monitor for additional rainfall chances midweek.
Otherwise, temperatures trend slightly cooler behind the system.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Showers and storms impact the Topeka terminals early tonight. There
could be a brief period of MVFR at KMHK Friday morning, but wasn`t
quite confident enough to put it in TAFs with this update. Have
focused the 06Z on the short-term, but there could be another round
of rain and storms that impact airports Friday afternoon and evening.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Teefey
AVIATION...Teefey