134
FXUS63 KTOP 190659
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
159 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered showers are expected to develop again this
  afternoon. These will be hit or miss with most areas remaining dry.

- Highs Monday are forecast to be 95-100, leading to heat indices
  around 105 degrees. A Heat Advisory is posted for the entire area.

- A couple chances for showers and storms are in the forecast for
  Wednesday through Friday with a cool down in temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 159 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

07Z water vapor showed a similar pattern as the past couple days. A
broad upper level ridge was noted over much of the central and
western U.S. with a couple areas of disturbed weather over west TX
and AZ. Surface obs showed a weak pattern with low pressure along
the lee of the Rockies and relatively high pressure along the MS
river valley.

The main player in the forecast remains the upper ridging and the
latest solutions want to keep the center of the ridge to the west of
the forecast area today and then build it east for Monday. This
means another day with highs in the lower and middle 90s with
isolated to scattered showers through the afternoon. Similar to the
past couple days, shear and lapse rates are rather weak so the
expectation is for some ordinary convective updrafts where the
downdraft cuts it off as it rains.

For Sunday, have gone ahead and posted a heat advisory for the whole
forecast area. There is reasonable consensus from the operational
solutions for highs to reach the mid 90s and near 100 degrees. The
main question is whether dewpoint temps tend to mix out. And with
low level flow of 10Kt or less through 850MB, it is hard to imagine
a lot of mixing of dry air to the surface. Based on the last couple
afternoons, think dewpoints across north central KS will hold in the
middle 60s with lower 70 dewpoints for the eastern counties. This
gives heat indices around 105 for most areas. A little more
subsidence as the upper ridge builds east may limit afternoon shower
activity.

A frontal boundary is still on track to move through the area during
the day Tuesday. This is expected to keep temps marginally cooler,
but if it ends up being a little slower parts of east central KS may
see heat indices up to 105 for a second day. Given the uncertainty,
have opted to hold off on any headlines for Coffey and Anderson
counties for now. For the rest of the week, the upper ridge is
progged to shift south with pieces of energy rounding the top of the
ridge and potentially bringing showers and storms to the region.
Operational solutions have been pretty consistent in this idea for
late Wednesday and Thursday morning. There looks to be a growing
consensus for another wave to impact parts of the area on Friday. By
next weekend, the upper ridge is progged to re-amplify over the
central plains and limit precip chances. Ensembles continue to show
a fair amount of spread in temps for Thursday and into the weekend.
But the overall trend looks good with relatively cool temps
Wednesday and Thursday and a trend warmer into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

There isn`t much change to the airmass so similar conditions are
expected through Sunday as we`ve seen the past couple days. VFR
conditions should be most common with widely scattered SHRA popping
up in the heat of the afternoon. Temporary MVFR conditions may occur
under a SHRA. Have continued with a PROB30 group given the low
predictability of the location of the SHRA.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT Monday for KSZ008-KSZ009-
KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-
KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-
KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wolters
AVIATION...Wolters