203
FXUS63 KTOP 061148
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
648 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Next round for storms expected late tonight and through Sunday.
Locally heavy rainfall and flooding will be the main hazards.

- Hot and humid conditions build in by next week with temperatures in
  the low to mid 90s and heat index values pushing above 100 degrees.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Weak mid-level flow persists across the central US with lingering
nocturnal convection that continues to be fueled by the nose of the
LLJ in southern Nebraska. Further south, mid-level water vapor
imagery shows a weak cutoff low over the southern Plains that will
bring out next round of storm chances by later this evening and
through the day Sunday. For the remainder of the morning, some of
the convection across southern Nebraska may make its way into far
north-central KS, but with very weak shear, expectations are that
storm cold pools will outrun the updrafts and lead to a quick
weakening trend. Cannot rule out a small hail and wind gusts up to
50-55 mph if storms maintain themselves this far south, but
confidence is low in this occurring. Through the day today,
persistent moisture advection in association with the southern
Plains upper low will begins moving north towards Kansas. Most of
the day will be dry, but given afternoon thermal profiles yielding
over 1500-2500 J/kg of MUCAPE and inhibition becoming minimized by 3-
5 pm, cannot rule out an isolated thunderstorm. Minimal shear (<15
knots) will keep storm structure unimpressive with updrafts likely
struggling to keep their downdrafts from cutting off inflow.

More widespread rain/storm chances build in across the area
overnight into Sunday morning as the aforementioned southern Plains
cutoff low moves north into the central Plains. Steering flow for
showers/storms will be on the order of 10-20 mph and given PWATs in
the 1.5-2.25" range, locally heavy rainfall will be the main threat
Sunday. This will especially be true across areas that have already
seen flooding and saturated soils from previous storms. Recent
medium range solutions have begun to highlight areas across far
eastern Kansas into Missouri as areas that have the best chances for
seeing the highest totals of rainfall. HREF and LREF probs for QPF
greater than 1 inch continue to highlight highest values (above
25%) across areas east of Topeka through the day Monday.

Rain begins to come to an end Monday PM as the upper low shifts east
towards the Mississippi valley and mid-level ridging deepens over
the central Plains. With little change of airmass and increasing
heights aloft, hot and humid conditions will be expected starting
Monday and continuing into the Thursday. Heat index values will
build into the triple digits for the first time this summer, topping
out in the 105-110 degree range Tuesday and Wednesday. A break may
come by Thursday as a trough moving across the northern Plains helps
to push a frontal boundary across the area. This should bring the
next chance for precipitation to the region. NBM temperature spreads
Friday and beyond are still rather large, but a downward trend in
50th percentile temperatures seems to be the trend as we make our way
into mid June.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 631 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

VFR TAFs will continue for the first half of the period. The only
caveat will be an isolated thunderstorm impacting a terminal this
afternoon that may briefly bring CIGs down into the MVFR category.
Opted to include mention of this with a PROB30 group. Additionally,
confidence remained high enough to add IFR CIGs later this evening
and overnight as showers move into the terminals.
&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Griesemer
AVIATION...Griesemer