086
FXUS63 KTOP 280538
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1238 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler Tuesday and cooler yet late this week into the weekend.

- Small (10-30%) chance for showers and thunderstorms late tonight
  through Wednesday. Greater chances Thursday into Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 155 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2026

Upstream convection today is focused farther northwest and
west of the forecast area, where the SPC Day 1 Outlook maintains a
Slight Risk across portions of the central High Plains including far
northwest Kansas, tied to one or more MCS clusters developing along
the northern periphery of the ridge. Guidance favors these complexes
tracking mainly across western Nebraska and adjacent Kansas, with
only low confidence in any eastward extension of stronger winds into
northcentral Kansas. Storm chances are very low through the evening.

Overnight, a weak boundary begins pushing southward into our area.
This, combined with an increasing low-level jet may be enough to
spark some scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms as early as
5am across north central KS, with increasing chances/coverage later
in the morning across eastern Kansas. Forecast soundings indicate a
decoupled boundary layer and dry air just above the surface. The
threat for severe storms looks minimal with these features in place
and less than 1,000 J/Kg of effective CAPE and less than 30 knots of
effective shear. The slow-moving boundary, increasing cloud cover and
potential rainfall should all help keep temperatures in check
tomorrow, with heat indices generally around 100 degrees.

The upper-level ridge breaks down further by Wednesday and Tuesdays
boundary moves off to our south. This should keep us cooler through
the remainder of the week, with several chances for showers and
thunderstorms. Thursday into Friday, a stronger cold front is favored
to move through, this will bring our highest chances of
precipitation for the week (50+%). Given the limited largescale
forcing over northeast Kansas relative to areas closer to the main
northern stream shortwave and the modest frontal convergence,
thunderstorm coverage is expected to be scattered, with QPF generally
light to moderate and many locations likely remaining under an inch
through the period, though localized higher amounts are possible
under slower or training cells. WPCs Excessive Rainfall Outlook
highlights broader areas of concern for flash flooding but does not
indicate any focused, highercategory risk centered over northeast
Kansas at this time, supporting a low flash flood threat locally.

The severe potential late week appears minimal, with SPC
mediumrange guidance emphasizing stronger instability and shear
corridors closer to the northern Plains and Midwest rather than
northeast Kansas. With warm midlevel temperatures and only modest
shear, storms in the Topeka area should mainly pose risks of brief
heavy rain, lightning, and localized gusty winds, though an isolated
stronger cell cannot be ruled out, especially Thursday night into
Friday when the front is closest. Overall, the main impacts for the
local area are a break from the most extreme heat, increased cloud
cover, and episodic, mainly subsevere thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Scattered convection continues to form ahead near and ahead of an
upper wave and outflow boundary moving east-southeast from northwest
Kansas. Have moved up timing of TSRA based on this but still expect
some chance for showers and thunderstorms to around 18Z until the
wave exits. Main impact looks to be visibilities, and could reach IFR
though MVFR seems more likely. Winds become more easterly as a front
moves through.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Jones
AVIATION...Poage