480
FXUS63 KTOP 220906
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
306 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chilly through Monday with highs in the 30s and 40s and lows in
the teens.

- Warmth returns Tuesday through the end of the week with highs in
the 60s.

- Rain chances return Wednesday evening into Thursday (30-40%).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 304 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Surface ridging dominates the north-central Plains this morning as
clear skies and light winds have allowed temperatures to drop into
the teens. Expect temperatures this afternoon and Monday to remain
chilly with persistent CAA keeping highs in the 30s today and upper
30s and low 40s Monday.

By Tuesday, the low-level ridge axes shift to the east of the
area and flip winds towards the southwest. This paired with a
deepening upper ridge will quickly return 60 degree high
temperatures across the area through the remainder of the week.
A shortwave moving in from the PNW Wednesday evening will
return chances for rain across the area, but chances remain on
the lower side (30-40%) at this time. Temperatures Thursday will
be a touch cooler given the cloud cover, but should rebound
back into the upper 60s and low 70s by Friday as low level flow
returns back from the southwest. Temperature spreads remain
rather large (20-30 degrees for afternoon highs) by the weekend
as long range guidance depicts the chance for another shot of
cold air from the north. That said, chances remain equal for
this air to remain north of the area, hence the large spread in
temperatures this far out. Some precipitation may accompany any
system that moves across the region Sunday, but chances at this
point in time remain low (<20%).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1011 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

VFR conditions prevail along with a NW wind. Winds increase
into this morning remaining gusty through the period before
relaxing by late afternoon into this evening.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Griesemer
AVIATION...Drake