917
FXUS63 KTOP 301136
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
636 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain chances increase through the day today (30-60%) with multiple
rounds through Monday (as high as 70-90%).

- Rain totals through Monday could add up to around an inch with
  areas closer to the KS/NE border seeing closer to 1.5 inches.

- Cooler temperatures persist into next week with another shot
  of cool air anticipated Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 248 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Mid-level water vapor imagery this morning shows high-level clouds
moving across Kansas from decaying convection as a subtle shortwave
embedded in the northwesterly flow moves into Nebraska. This slow-
moving shortwave/vorticity maximum will dominate our weather over
the next few days as precipitation chances increase today and
persist through Monday.

Through the day today, the upper low will gain strength over
Nebraska, further enhancing a baroclinic zone across central and
north-central Kansas. Ample upper-level forcing is expected to move
across eastern Kansas tonight and into Sunday morning, helping to
develop widespread showers and a few embedded thunderstorms in the
area. Showers should be fairly efficient as PWATs range from 1-1.5
inches through the weekend. Rain chances continue through Sunday and
Monday as the upper low percolates over southeastern NE and
northeastern KS. NBM probabilities give all of northeastern Kansas a
75 percent chance of seeing rainfall totals of 0.5-1 inch through
Monday and a 25 percent chance of seeing upwards of 2-2.5 inches of
rainfall. Current thinking was to stick close to the 50th percentile
with most areas seeing 1-1.25 inches of rainfall and areas close to
the KS/NE border seeing 1.5-1.8 inches of precipitation. Overall,
totals will depend on how widespread precipitation will be over the
weekend. If it remains more scattered in nature with lower-end
rainfall rates, expect the aforementioned lower range of totals.
Given the precip and extended cloud cover across the area through
Monday, high temperatures each afternoon should remain fairly cool,
only topping out in the low to mid 70s.

Drier weather does not appear to return until Tuesday as the upper
low finally makes its way into Missouri and Illinois. Subsidence on
the back-side of the shortwave paired with surface ridging building
into northeast Kansas should help to scatter out cloud cover through
the day Tuesday and return afternoon temperatures back into the mid
to upper 70s. By Wednesday, a large Arctic low quickly digs south
into the central US and pushes a cold front through the area. Some
precip could accompany the frontal passage, but the main story will
be the reinforcing cold air that`s expected to move in Thursday and
Friday. Thursday and Friday morning lows could drop as low as the
mid 40s as high temperatures Thursday top out in the upper 60s and
low 70s before warming back into the 70s by Friday. Long range
guidance keeps northwesterly flow over the region into the following
weekend, so still looking on the cooler-side for temperatures moving
forward.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 632 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

MVFR and low end VFR stratus is slowly moving in towards the
terminals and will persist for much of the TAF. Pushed the
timing of showers back at the terminals to match with latest
guidance. Additionally, added mention of thunder this afternoon
at all terminals since the confidence in some isolated and
embedded thunderstorms within showers has increased. There may
be a break in precipitation after this afternoons showers/storms
before rain and storms redevelop overnight and through the end
of the TAF. MVFR ceilings should accompany showers, possibly
dipping into IFR criteria with heavier precipitation.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Griesemer
AVIATION...Griesemer