832
FXUS63 KTOP 170838
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
338 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms diminishing today but may return
  tonight and Friday night.

- An extended period of high heat is on track from this weekend
  into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 338 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Convection continues to percolate north of the surface front located
across southern Kansas early this morning. Interesting wind
signature developed near KTWX with 60 mph estimated winds but
overall expecting more of a heavy rainfall/isolated flooding threat
to continue into the post-dawn hours. Latest RAP forecast shows the
850 mb winds veering through 12Z which should bring a slow end to
convection into the late morning. Heavy rainfall has occurred in some
locations with rates near 2"/hour but most places have not seen this
rate for very long. Some isolated flooding remains the main concern
where any training of the higher rates takes place. Cloudy
conditions on north to northeast winds behind the front should keep
today`s highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s. Showers and thunderstorms
may return overnight into Friday morning as isentropic lift develops
over the front but instability looks much weaker. Could see isolated
heavier rain again given high atmosphere moisture content still in
place but a training scenario seems less likely. WAA on south winds
should be enough push highs back to the upper 80s to mid 90s Friday
despite early precip potential and some mid cloud lingering.
Upglide looks less impressive Friday night but at least isolated
showers and storm are possible especially north.

WAA continues into Saturday with 850 mb temperatures reaching
around 25 C. Little change is expected in these values into the
middle of next week. A weak front may approach northern Kansas
Saturday night into early Sunday supporting small precipitation
chances. With southerly winds keeping dewpoints mainly in the
upper 60 to lower 70s, highs should commonly reach the mid 90s
to around 100 with heat indices a few to several degrees higher
for a several day period of concerning heat.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1242 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Showers and thunderstorms becoming more widespread over the past
half hour so feel confident enough to go with prevailing SHRA
with some TSRA. More intense storms could easily bring
visibilities to IFR with some gusts possible, though these are
looking more isolated. Limiting ceilings should also spread
south though may be interrupted by the convection. Have enough
certainty to mention some IFR cigs as the rain ends. Will
likely only get to MVFR ceiling heights today with some
potential for lower cigs and visbys after 04Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Poage
AVIATION...Poage