433
FXUS63 KTOP 151717
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1217 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonable temperatres continue today and Thursday before
  temperatures approach triple digits by the weekend.

- Isolated to scattered storms will be possible Thursday afternoon
  (20-40%), mainly across far east and east-central KS.

- The dome of heat continues into Monday of next week as more
seasonable temperatures and precipitation chances build in for the
remainder of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 409 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Subtle changes to the large upper-level ridge has taken shape over
the past 24 hours as a weak mid-level cyclone has become rooted
across the southern Plains and southeastern US. While the large
upper ridge continues to dominate the weather across the northern
Plains, mid-level vorticity advection into the southern Plains today
and Thursday will help to provide this week`s only chances for
rain/storms across eastern Kansas. Until then, expect seasonable
summer conditions to persist this afternoon and again Thursday with
highs topping out around 90 degrees. With the surface ridge still in
place over Iowa and easterly flow across the area, some patchy fog
may continue to develop through sunrise this morning across eastern
Kansas. Fog should mainly stay in the river valleys and other low-
lying areas and burn off shortly after sunrise. Later this
afternoon, a subtle increase in mid-level lift may exist as
vorticity advects into Oklahoma from the southeastern US. This could
help to generate an isolated shower or two across far southern
portions of the area, but chances for this remain below 20%. The
better chances for rain/thunderstorms comes Thursday afternoon with
a better northward push of mid-level energy from the stalled low
over the southern Plains. This paired with weak instability Thursday
afternoon, isolated to scattered showers and a few weak
thunderstorms will be possible. Highest confidence for
showers/storms will stay across far eastern Kansas where better lift
will reside.

Lift will push out of the area Friday and with that, precipitation
chances. Southerly low-level flow will become commonplace by Friday
and through the weekend as the upper-level ridge axis moves overtop
of the central Plains. Mixdown of very warm 850mb temperatures
Friday through Monday will push temperatures into the upper 90s with
possibly some areas seeing triple digits by Sunday and Monday. NBM
25th to 25th spreads for afternoon high temperatures Sunday and
Monday currently sit between 95 and 105 degrees respectively. After
Monday, the upper ridge looks to slowly break down as weak waves
moving out of Canada push the ridge west. This should open the door
for a more active pattern and temperatures returning closer to
average through next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Expect VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. Few-Sct CU with
bases of 40000 to 6000 feet will continue through the afternoon
hours. There`s a 10-14 percent chance of an isolated shower/storm at
KTOP/KFOE. Shallow ground fog may form at KTOP near sunrise but will
mix out by 13Z THU.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Griesemer
AVIATION...Gargan