238
FXUS63 KTOP 301035
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
535 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and dry weather is forecast to persist through the workweek.

- Lower humidity levels may keep the really oppressive heat at bay.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 220 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Upper ridging was still over the southern plains per the 07Z water
vapor imagery, keeping the mean westerlies and storm tracks to the
north of the forecast area. Surface obs placed a trough of low
pressure from the northern plains into the central high plains. A
decent pressure gradient over central and eastern KS has kept winds
and temperatures up so far this morning.

Not a lot of change to the forecast as ensembles and the NBM
continue to show the upper ridging persisting over the southern and
central plains through the forecast period. There is reasonable
agreement from the operational GFS/ECMWF in the overall synoptic
pattern but the ECMWF does tend to keep a stronger ridge in terms of
500MB heights over the plains. The interesting thing to watch for is
the 00Z AIGFS develops a deeper upper trough over the northeast
which tends to shift the upper ridge to the west of the forecast
area and develops a more meridional pattern along the MS valley.
Presumably this would allow for some cooler air from the north to
filter into the area. But given limited experience with the AIGFS,
am not comfortable straying from the NBM. So overall a dry and hot
forecast continues. The latest NBM keeps POPs less than 20 percent
through the period. There is a signal from the RAP for some
isentropic lift near the NEB state line this morning with pretty
steep mid level lapse rates. CAMs are not to aggressive with
developing elevated showers so have kept POPs around 10 percent and
will monitor trends as the morning progresses.

The main question is whether or not to go with a heat advisory.
There is good agreement in the operational solutions for hot
temperatures and based on 925MB and 850MB temps progs have today`s
forecast highs around 100 degrees. But good south southwesterly
unidirectional flow is forecast to mix out boundary layer moisture
this afternoon. Because of this, heat indices are expected to be
pretty close to the actual temperature. With most areas seeing
indices in the 100 to 103 range and humidity being lower than what
we experienced earlier in the summer, will hold off on any advisory
for now. Operational models suggest with the 1000-500MB thickness
progs that highs may be a degree or so less hot to begin the
workweek. So in general it looks like persistent highs in the upper
90s and around 100 with lower humidity should keep really oppressive
conditions on the lower end of possibilities. Later shifts can
reassess the need for heat headlines.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 535 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Upper ridging is forecast to keep VFR conditions in place while
keeping storm tracks to the north of the terminals.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Record highest minimum temperature information:

                      Record                   Forecast

August 31    Topeka     77, set in 1912 and 1947   78
             Concordia  81, set in 1947            77


September 1  Topeka     81, set in 2011            77
             Concordia  80, set in 1913            77


September 2  Topeka     80, set in 2011            79
             Concordia  79, set in 1929            78


September 3  Topeka     77, set in 1939            78
             Concordia  80, set in 1947            77

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wolters
AVIATION...Wolters
CLIMATE...Poage