680
FXUS63 KTOP 171137
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
637 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms diminishing today but may return
  tonight and Friday night.

- An extended period of high heat is on track from this weekend
  into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 338 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Convection continues to percolate north of the surface front located
across southern Kansas early this morning. Interesting wind
signature developed near KTWX with 60 mph estimated winds but
overall expecting more of a heavy rainfall/isolated flooding threat
to continue into the post-dawn hours. Latest RAP forecast shows the
850 mb winds veering through 12Z which should bring a slow end to
convection into the late morning. Heavy rainfall has occurred in some
locations with rates near 2"/hour but most places have not seen this
rate for very long. Some isolated flooding remains the main concern
where any training of the higher rates takes place. Cloudy
conditions on north to northeast winds behind the front should keep
today`s highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s. Showers and thunderstorms
may return overnight into Friday morning as isentropic lift develops
over the front but instability looks much weaker. Could see isolated
heavier rain again given high atmosphere moisture content still in
place but a training scenario seems less likely. WAA on south winds
should be enough push highs back to the upper 80s to mid 90s Friday
despite early precip potential and some mid cloud lingering.
Upglide looks less impressive Friday night but at least isolated
showers and storm are possible especially north.

WAA continues into Saturday with 850 mb temperatures reaching
around 25 C. Little change is expected in these values into the
middle of next week. A weak front may approach northern Kansas
Saturday night into early Sunday supporting small precipitation
chances. With southerly winds keeping dewpoints mainly in the
upper 60 to lower 70s, highs should commonly reach the mid 90s
to around 100 with heat indices a few to several degrees higher
for a several day period of concerning heat.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 637 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Weak showers and a few thunderstorms linger but radar and model
trends suggest they become more isolated with time. MHK and most
other upstream locations are at MVFR/IFR in low cloud and
expected this to fill in at TOP and FOE soon. Have kept MVFR
cigs going through the remainder of the forecast but confidence
diminishes near the end of the forecast with precipitation
potential and BR IFR cig possibilities.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Poage
AVIATION...Poage