417
FXUS63 KTOP 251053
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
553 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Slight chances for rain/storms this afternoon and tonight.

-Dry and slightly cooler conditions are expected for the last half
 of the workweek.

-Temperatures quickly warm this week and reach the upper 90s by
 Sunday afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

A large mid-level ridge remains anchored over the southwestern CONUS
and an area of low pressure is over southern Canada. There were a
few shortwaves noted between the ridge and the low to the north on
water vapor imagery early this morning. One was producing storms in
Nebraska and the other in far southeast Colorado. Some uncertainty
remains on storm chances in the area today, but the most likely
scenario is for increasing chances in central/north-central KS this
afternoon, and then again across northeast KS tonight and early
Wednesday as a cold front associated with the system to the north
moves through the area. If storms make it into north-central KS this
afternoon, the environment will be favorable for damaging wind gusts
as instability increases and with DCAPE around 1000 J/kg. Shear will
be on the weaker side. Forcing does not look all that strong so have
kept POPs low (20-30%) for now. Storms that develop tonight are less
likely to be severe with lower amounts of instability, more CIN and
continued weak shear.

A surface ridge builds in from the northwest behind the cold front
on Wednesday, and the pattern looks to remain dry through Friday.
Temperatures and dew points will be just a touch lower through the
end of the week. The pattern then shifts this weekend as the mid-
level ridge flattens and moves toward the southeastern portion of the
CONUS. The surface ridge will also move east, which will shift winds
to the south. Temperatures respond by warming back into the 90s for
both Saturday and Sunday. Sunday will be the warmest day with strong
southerly low level flow ahead of a surface trough in central KS.
Unless widespread cloud cover or precipitation develops near the
trough axis, temperatures could warm into the mid and upper 90s with
heat index values approaching 105 degrees. The hot weather will
continue into early next week with at least slight chances for
precipitation returning to the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 549 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

There may be a brief period of MVFR visibilities at KTOP this
morning, otherwise, VFR is expected at all sites today. Winds will be
light out of the east. Then there is a slight chance for TS this
evening and tonight, but still too much uncertainty on timing and
location to include it in the forecast.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Teefey
AVIATION...Teefey