237
FXUS63 KTOP 161101
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
601 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered shower/storm chances later this afternoon (20-40%)

- Temperatures build into the weekend with highs Saturday through
Monday pushing into the upper 90s and a few seeing the low 100s.

- Weak frontal boundary moves across the area sometime Tuesday
ushering in reprieve from the heat and a more active weather pattern
for the remainder of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 302 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

The upper air pattern over the past 24 hours has seen little change
across the CONUS with a large dome of high pressure settled over
South Dakota and Nebraska, a stalled low over the Texas Plains and
troughing over the PNW with the main jet stream rounding the central
ridge and extending into the northeastern US. The main changes
across the central US has been the subtle northern shift in the
Texas cyclone`s trough axis. This has helped to provide a bit more
lift across the Ozarks and into southern Kansas that could lead to
our first chances for rain in over a week by this afternoon. In the
short-term, surface ridging still remains present across eastern
Kansas with another night of clear skies and light winds. Once again
will expect to see some patchy fog development in the low-lying
areas in eastern and far northern Kansas by sunrise this morning.
That said, not expecting any widespread hazardous conditions with
any fog expected to burn off shortly after sunrise. For the
remainder of the day today, presence of the aforementioned mid-level
lift will spread across eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Diurnal
heating and upper 60 and low 70 degree Tds will give way to decent
CAPE values by this afternoon and create an environment conducive
for weak pulse summer thunderstorms. Storms are expected to be weak
with a few rumbles of thunder given the lack of deep shear. High
temperatures will again top out around 90 degrees this afternoon.

Starting Friday, southerly low-level flow will increase across the
region and usher in very warm 850mb temperatures from the southwest
each afternoon. This paired with the upper ridge spreading back over
the central Plains will cause a warming trend through the weekend
and into early next week. Friday`s high temperatures will only top
out in the low 90s before peaking in the upper 90s and some low 100s
by Sunday and Monday. Given the high air temperatures and dewpoints
sitting around 70 degrees across far eastern Kansas Sunday/Monday,
could see heat indicies approach 105-110 degrees both afternoons.

Some reprieve in the heat looks to come sometime Tuesday as the
upper ridge begins to get shunted west and several weak waves dip
into the northern Plains. This should help to push a weak boundary
across the area sometime Tuesday. With most guidance keeping a
frontal passage midday, areas to the south of the boundary will
still likely see mid to upper 90 degree temperatures into the
afternoon. As for precipitation, confidence at this time is not very
high that much will come across eastern Kansas. Better low and mid
level moisture and lift will stay off to the north and east of the
area. Could still see some chances for storms along the boundary
passage Tuesday afternoon/evening though with PoPs around 15% at
this time. A modified airmass is expected to move in behind the
frontal passage Tuesday and stick around for much of next week.
Temperatures will fall back closer to average - highs around 90
degrees and lows in the low 70s. In addition to the slightly cooler
weather, a more active pattern looks to summarize the remainder of
next week as the main upper ridging pattern pushes south of the area
and several weak waves ride in within the northwesterly upper level
flow.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 600 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Opted to add mention of scattered thunderstorm chances at KTOP and
KFOE this afternoon, but given the overall scattered nature of
convection, kept as a PROB30 group. A storm or two may approach the
terminal at KMHK, but confidence in storm coverage that far west was
too low at this time, so did not include in the TAF. Winds will
remain light and out of the south for the remainder of the TAF with
scattered high-based Cu.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Griesemer
AVIATION...Griesemer