319
FXUS63 KTOP 271114
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
614 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Today looks warm and mostly dry with low rain chances (15-30%)
coming to east central KS this evening and overnight.

- Highest rain chances (40-60%) are Thursday into Friday followed by
hit or miss showers and storms this weekend. Severe weather
potential remains very low.

- Near average temperatures are forecast Thursday through early next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 337 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026

Upper air pattern now depicts a deepening cutoff low centered over
CA with a shortwave ejecting out of that system through north TX.
Ridging stretches from the Gulf up through the Northern Plains, with
low-level south to southeasterly flow helping to advect moisture
into the area. The moisture axis looks to set up across central to
southeast KS by late afternoon to early evening, straddling the
southern edge of the CWA through most of the evening hours and
slowly lifting north overnight into Thursday morning. This should
lead to most locations staying dry today, although a few isolated
showers or storms can`t entirely be ruled out late this afternoon.
As such, high temperatures today look similar to yesterday in the
80s. Rain chances generally increase from south to north overnight
into Thursday morning with the incoming moisture and sheared out
trough axis aloft. However, the associated sfc low/MCV-like feature
is progged to take an odd northwesterly track as it moves from OK
into KS. This places locations along and south of a line from
Concordia to Lawrence in the most favorable area for on and off
showers and storms throughout Thursday, with lesser chances
northeast. While Pwat increasing above 1.5" with skinny CAPE could
support some brief downpours, overall rain amounts are heavily
favored to be under half an inch. Low shear keeps any severe weather
concerns low as well. Highs range from the upper 70s to low 80s
(cooler south where clouds and rain are more likely to keep
temperatures down).

The moisture axis shifts into eastern KS Friday while shortwave
energy from the weakening upper system meanders through the flow.
This keeps on and off showers and storms in the area with slightly
better chances focused in eastern areas. For the weekend, the
western cutoff low weakens and pivots northeast, but keeps enough
shortwave energy around the area to maintain low-end PoPs. These
showers and storms would be more hit or miss and diurnally driven,
more typical of what we would see in a mid-summer pattern. The
pattern should break down early next work week with upper ridging
favoring dry weather Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures look fairly
steady late this week into early next week with highs in the upper
70s to mid 80s and lows in the low 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 614 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026

Shallow ground fog may lead to brief vsby reductions at TOP before
it burns off by 13Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to
continue with increasing mid/high clouds into this afternoon. Any
showers or storms look to stay well south of terminals until after
this TAF period. Winds remain light from the east.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Picha
AVIATION...Picha