517
FXUS63 KTOP 251747
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1247 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and humid this weekend then slightly cooler by mid-week.

- No precipitation expected until at least Monday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 324 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Upper ridge in place over the desert southwest with unorganized
surface low pressure in the northern High Plains leading to low-
level warm-air advection over the central Plains. Some mid cloud
remains but drying mid-levels brings mainly clear skies through the
weekend with steadily warming 850 mb temperatures into at least
early Monday per LREF means. Continue to believe the more humid and
slightly cooler than LREF means is on track for surface conditions
to at least Sunday, and with temps in the mid 90s not far to the
southwest Friday, a much warmer day is expected today. Confidence in
specifics continues to lower Monday into Tuesday with some chance
for upstream convection to enter the area and a generally drying
ground. This keeps the heat headlines going as-is with Warning
conditions in much of east-central Kansas where heat indices peak
near/around 110 today and Sunday with slightly cooler conditions
elsewhere and the Watch going for Monday and Tuesday though a
boundary looks to move in around Tuesday with at least near-
climatological precipitation chances. In the very near term, will
need to monitor fog potential with light winds and a damp boundary
layer under clearing skies.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

VFR conditions persist at all sites through the period with light
southwesterly winds and mostly clear skies.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Sunday for KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-
KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-
KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ054.
Extreme Heat Watch from Sunday evening through Tuesday evening for
KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-
KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-
KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.
Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Sunday for KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ055-
KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Poage
AVIATION...Griesemer