779
FXUS63 KTOP 311043
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
543 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and storms exit the area this morning.

- Cooler and drier today through Sunday, then gradually warming
  up into the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Thunderstorms continue to push southeast across the forecast area
this morning as a potent shortwave trough advances east across the
Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes. Storms have weakened over the
past hour and this trend is expected to continue with storms
eventually moving out of the area by 6-7 AM. Rainfall rates of 1-2"
per hour have been observed, but the progression of storms will
largely limit any flooding concerns. A strong summer cold front will
move through the area this morning, with gusty northwest winds
ushering in cooler and drier air. Highs will top out in the mid 80s
along the KS/NE state line and in the low 90s south of I-35, with
dewpoints falling into the 60s behind the front. There is a low
chance (<15%) for a shower to form this afternoon on the western
periphery of the closed upper low, but think most locales stay dry.

The cooler and drier air becomes more noticeable this weekend.
Surface ridging builds overhead for Saturday and breezy north winds
will keep temperatures 5-10 degrees below normal with highs in the
low to mid 80s. Low temperatures both Saturday and Sunday mornings
will be in the 60s, perhaps even the upper 50s! Southerly low-level
winds return on Sunday as the mid-level ridge oozes back over the
Plains. Temperatures gradually warm each day into the middle of next
week with humidity returning as well. Ensembles favor more zonal
flow over the Central Plains Wed-Fri, with embedded waves bringing
the next chance of precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 543 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Showers and storms have pushed southeast of TAF sites and expect
dry conditions through the remainder of the day. A cold front
will move through and winds will become gusty from the northwest
behind the boundary. MVFR cigs may build in behind the front,
with best chances at KMHK before cigs rise to VFR this afternoon.
Gusts may drop off after sunset this evening, but think at least
intermittent gusts persist at KTOP/KFOE overnight.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Flanagan
AVIATION...Flanagan