791
FXUS63 KTOP 290850
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
350 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly dry today before rain and storm chances return late this
afternoon and evening (30-50%).

- Isolated to scattered precipitation chances linger Friday morning
before widespread rain/storm chances returning by the afternoon
through Saturday morning (50-80%).

- A brief lull in precipitation chances builds in by Halloween
evening. A large upper-level system brings rain and storm chances
back to eastern Kansas by Monday and Tuesday (60-90%).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 350 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Satellite and surface observations early this morning show a weak
frontal boundary bisecting northeastern Kansas and is expected to
move south a bit through the early morning hours today before
stalling across eastern Kansas. Zooming out, a few notable features
stand out on upper-level water vapor imagery that will act to drive
our weather in eastern Kansas the next several days - one ejecting
off the northern Mexican mountains into the southern Plains, and the
other a strong PNW cyclone embedded in broad troughing over the
western coast. Through the day today, the southern Plains
disturbance will continue its march north towards Kansas and
continue to reinforce southerly low-level moisture advection towards
the stalled boundary in Kansas. Isentropic ascent will strengthen
overtop of the stalled warm front by the late afternoon and evening
hours helping to generate precipitation. Cannot rule out a strong to
marginally severe storm near the surface boundary by late this
afternoon given 1500-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE and 30-35 knots of bulk
shear. That said, storms should be elevated so the main hazards
would be small hail and an isolated strong wind gust. Rain/storm
chances will slowly shift north through the overnight hours as best
lift associated with the nose of the LLJ slides into southern NE and
southwestern IA.

A brief lull in rain chances should be realized for much of Friday
morning and into the early afternoon hours before lift from the
southern Plains disturbance moves into eastern Kansas by the later
afternoon and evening. Widespread rain and isolated thunderstorms
will persist until early Saturday morning before large-scale ascent
begins to shift north and east followed quickly by widespread
subsidence. This should bring an end to precipitation Saturday
morning/early afternoon from west to east - good news for Trick or
Treaters!

By Sunday, a compact ridge will over the central Plains will keep
things quiet, but the large amplified trough that begins to eject
off the southern Rockies later that evening will not keep things
quiet for long. WAA ahead of the main trough axis should begin the
rain/storm chances Sunday night into Monday morning with
precipitation chances hanging around all day Monday into Tuesday.
Given the strength of this system, there is some potential in a
severe weather setup somewhere across the southern/central Plains
Monday evening and possibly again Tuesday, but variability in model
guidance at this time is still high keeping confidence low. The
upper trough axis is progged to move east of the area Wednesday,
ushering in more seasonable and drier conditions in for the
remainder of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1253 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

TAFs are expected to remain VFR until later Thursday morning when
MVFR stratus builds across northern Kansas just north of the frontal
boundary. Stratus is expected to scatter out a bit by the afternoon.
Precipitation chances will increase near the terminal at the end of
the period, but confidence in coverage at this time was too low so
held off in mention.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Griesemer
AVIATION...Griesemer