100
FXUS63 KTOP 171138
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
Issued by National Weather Service Wichita KS
638 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A break in storms can be expected later this morning into the
  afternoon, followed by another risk for severe storms later
  this afternoon and especially tonight. However, uncertainty
  remains in timing and location. There is a highly conditional
  threat for isolated severe storms late this afternoon with all
  severe hazards including large hail, damaging winds, and a
  tornado IF the storms occur. Greater chances for severe
  weather come late tonight with more of a wind and hail threat
  as well as heavy rain and flooding.

- Heat builds up later this  week into the weekend with heat
  indices approaching 100 by Friday and Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 448 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

MCS has been ongoing through central KS early this morning,
which looks to be riding along the instability gradient although
the portion of the line in north central KS has weakened. This
mornings cluster of storms should continue to push south and
weaken with time as the subtle wave aloft eventually moves out
of the area this morning. It is worth noting that the HRRR has
been depicting some pockets of 45-60mph winds in the mid to late
morning behind the stratiform rain, perhaps showing hints of a
wake low behind the departing system. So will need to monitor
for gusty winds as rain comes to an end later this morning.

By this afternoon, there may be an outflow boundary left behind
by the MCS currently ongoing in south central KS, but there is
still some uncertainty on where that boundary might be placed or
if it develops. Models are also showing a warm front extending
out from the center of low pressure in western KS, with some
differences in where that boundary will be by the mid to late
afternoon hours. Some guidance tries to put it near the I-70
corridor, and some (namely the HRRR) has the boundary mainly
south of our area, which puts most of the instability south of
our area this afternoon as well. That scenario appears to be
more of an outlier at this time, however. South of the front, a
very unstable and moist air mass looks to take shape with MLCAPE
of 3000-5000 J/kg and 35-50 kts of bulk shear. The better upper
forcing doesnt look to arrive until the evening, so confidence
in isolated storms developing in the late afternoon isnt all
that high. If a storm can develop in the aforementioned
environment, however, this would be more than sufficient for
supercells with all severe hazards possible. The tornado risk
would be more apparent if a storm is rooted near either the warm
front or any outflow boundary that may develop.

The greater concern for severe weather comes toward the early
evening and overnight as storms come out of western and central
KS and grow upscale into a line. This would mainly pose a threat
for damaging wind and hail within any stronger updrafts,
although a tornado embedded within the line still cant entirely
be ruled out. In particular, the NAM Nest shows plenty of
veering in the low-levels and looping hodographs as the line
comes through the area. Additionally, PW of 1.5 to 2 would
support heavy rainfall rates and a flooding concern, especially
wherever any training of storms occurs. A widespread 1-3 of
rainfall can be expected overall with locally higher amounts
possible. As such, a Flood Watch has been issued across much of
central and east central KS. However, it should be noted that
there isnt a lot of consistency among CAMs on the exact timing
and placement of this cluster of storms tonight, which keeps
plenty of uncertainty on which locations will see the greatest
risk and when.

The LLJ should steer storms out of the area by around sunrise
Wednesday with dry weather and a warming trend expected the rest
of the week. Mid-level ridging builds mid-week and eventually
pushes east through the weekend. This will push high
temperatures to the mid to upper 90s by Friday and Saturday with
heat indices approaching 100 degrees.


&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 638 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Main concern and challenge this period is with timing of storms,
especially later this afternoon into the evening. As for this
morning, there could still be some thunder at times with showers,
followed by a period of gusty winds following the stratiform rain
later this morning. Confidence in TS development late this afternoon
was too low for inclusion, and due to differences in timing and
placement between models, opted to limit mention to PROB30 for the
evening hours. Will likely adjust timing as confidence increases
with future issuances. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions until MVFR
cigs move in behind the line of storms late in the period.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from 4 PM CDT this afternoon through Wednesday
afternoon for KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-
KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Picha
AVIATION...Picha