700
FXUS63 KTOP 221842
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
142 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Pleasant and below-average temperatures continue through Friday
before the heat returns Saturday into early next week.

- Rain and storm chances build in Thursday AM with another round
again Thursday night into Friday morning. Each round will be capable
of localized heavy rainfall with isolated areas of 2+ inches of
rainfall possible.

- Mostly dry conditions will be expected Saturday into next week but
some weak waves moving in from the west may provide some localized
areas with small chances of precip Monday through Thursday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 139 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

A very nice day is underway this afternoon as a much cooler and
drier airmass has settled in across eastern Kansas. Currently, the
upper level ridge has pushed south across the southern Plains with
northwesterly flow over the central and northern Plains and
monsoonal moisture dominating much of the mountain-west. For the
remainder of the day today, expect temperatures to warm a few
degrees further before topping out in the low to mid 80s. With
dewpoints mixing out into the upper 50s, this will make for very
nice weather for any outdoor activities.

A more active pattern for rain and storms will move in overnight
tonight as vorticity rounding the mid-level ridge axis moves into
central Kansas. The increase in mid-level lift and moisture should
give way to scattered to widespread showers and a few thunderstorms
from early to late Thursday morning. Model guidance is showing PWATs
in this timeframe to be around 2" so some heavy rainfall will be
possible within the strongest showers/storms. Most areas across far
eastern KS will likely see less than an inch of rainfall through
Thursday morning, but areas across north-central and central KS
could see totals of 1-2 inches if storms train over areas for long
enough. Mid-level lift begins to shift into Missouri by the
afternoon Thursday and help provide a period of drier weather for
much of the afternoon. Given the amount of cloud cover and rain
chances through the morning, high temperatures Thursday will likely
struggle to reach above the mid 80s.

The next round of rain/storms moves in later Thursday night with a
more robust shortwave trough rounding the upper ridge. Widespread
low and mid-level lift increases across north-central and
northeastern Kansas into early Friday morning. Given the very moist
airmass characterized by 2-2.25" PWATs, showers and storms will be
capable of very efficient rainfall rates Friday morning. Recent
guidance depicts the nose of the nocturnal LLJ to position itself
across far north-central KS around midnight Friday morning before
slowly turning and moving east towards northeastern Kansas through
the morning hours. This seems to be the area best positioned for
continued development of showers/storms as the mid-level wave passes
overhead and thus, the area of heaviest rainfall. NBM probabilities
give areas north of I-70 widespread >50% chances for over 1 inch of
rainfall Friday morning. This continues further as areas closer to
Hwy 36 are highlighted by a 40-60% chance for rainfall totals
greater than 2 inches. The excessive rainfall could lead to
localized flooding Friday morning. Precipitation chances come to an
end by Friday afternoon as subsidence on the backside of the
shortwave builds in from the northwest. Again, cloud cover sticking
around for much of the daytime hours Friday will help to limit
temperatures by the afternoon - likely only reaching the mid 80s.

Hot and mostly dry conditions are looking more likely Saturday
through early next week as the upper level ridge builds north across
the central Plains. This will keep most of the precipitation chances
north of the area as afternoon high temperatures return to the mid
to upper 90s - possibly reaching triple digits Sunday and Monday.
Some low-end precipitation chances may come by early to mid next
week, but confidence is low as energy rounding the ridge will likely
stay across Nebraska.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1158 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

VFR TAFs will be expected through the remainder of the day today
before some rain showers move in early Thursday morning. Heavier
showers look to stay further west towards KMHK with lighter periods
of rain over KTOP and KFOE. Cannot rule out some thunder near KMHK,
so added some VCTS in to account for this potential. Precipitation
chances will likely continue through the end of the TAF before a
break in rain builds in by the afternoon.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Griesemer
AVIATION...Griesemer