497
FXUS63 KTOP 161951
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
Issued by National Weather Service Wichita KS
251 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chances for storms increase overnight tonight across north
  central and central Kansas. Some could be strong to severe
  with large hail and damaging winds as the main threats.

- A brief break in storms will likely come late Tuesday AM into
  early afternoon before another risk for severe storms will be
  expected in the later afternoon and evening across all of the
  area.

- Storms Tuesday afternoon will be capable of all severe
  hazards including very large hail, damaging winds, and a few
  tornadoes.

- Storms Tuesday evening will become more of a large hail and
  damaging wind threat as it tracks east across eastern Kansas.

- Heat builds in on Wednesday into the weekend with heat
  indices approaching 100-105 degrees Friday and Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 247 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Mid-level water vapor imagery this afternoon shows a large
ridge over the Desert Southwest, northwesterly flow to the
north, coinciding with a trough axis over the PNW, shortwaves
across the northern Plains and Mississippi River valley, and a
weak Bermuda High. In response to the northern Plains shortwave
trough, a frontal boundary and surface trough axis has begun to
stall across central Nebraska where convection is expected to
develop over the next few hours. Further south across eastern
Kansas, southerly flow and diurnal mixing has helped
temperatures to warm into the mid 80s across the area with
persistent moisture advection from the south. For the remainder
of the afternoon and early evening, expect warm and humid
conditions to persist before storm chances begin increasing
overnight.

The main thing that will need to be watched for severe weather
chances Tuesday will be how convection evolves across Nebraska
and northern Kansas overnight tonight. Convection across central
Nebraska later this evening should begin to congeal into an MCS
as it tracks southeast into north-central KS around and after
midnight tonight. CAMs depict a theta-e and MUCAPE gradient
stretching from north-central KS to southeast KS ahead of the
MCS. This should keep the main progression of the convective
complex along this gradient with decaying storms east of this
gradient. The biggest severe threat with this complex will be
damaging winds (60-70 mph) with the strongest storms likely
tracking along our southwest CWA border through sunrise Tuesday.

The biggest uncertainty with our severe chances Tuesday
afternoon will be how this aforementioned complex tracks. CAMs
depict an outflow boundary getting laid out by this MCS late
morning, somewhere around the I-70 corridor. By the later
afternoon hours, current thinking is that a surface low begins
to eject into west-central KS, developing a triple point around
the Russel to Salina, KS area. As the first of two mid-level
waves push across Kansas, parcels should try to test the cap
closer to the triple point in central KS by the 2-4 PM time
range. Initial storm coverage overall is a big uncertainty at
this time due to a few factors. One factor will be how much
clearing we will see in the late morning and early afternoon and
if that impacts our ability to weaken the EML in the later
afternoon hours near the surface low/any residual outflow
boundary. The second will be if and where our morning MCS will
lay out an outflow boundary. Hi Res guidance is not very
confident in the overall placement of any outflow boundary with
some CAMs not developing one and convection begins near the
KS/NE border, while others keep it along or south of I-70 and
develop convection along that and into southeastern Kansas. All
that said, parameters for severe weather will be in place in the
afternoon to cater storms capable of all modes of severe
weatherif they can develop. Given CAPE of 3500-5000 J/kg, 0-6km
shear of 30-50 knots, steep ML lapse rates, backed surface
winds, and low LCLs (especially across the warm sector)
supercells (likely quickly becoming HP) will be expected with
very large hail up to 2.5 inches, damaging winds of 60-70 mph
and a tornado or two. A tornado threat may also further increase
with any isolated supercells after the LLJ strengthens by 8 PM
Tuesday evening. The best threat for these isolated supercells
would be along the I-70 corridor and southeast.

The main surface front will trail close behind any late
afternoon convection, quickly congealing cells into a large
complex. With a secondary wave entering the central Plains by
the later evening Tuesday and shear increasing through the
column, another MCS will be expected to track east across Kansas
into the evening hours. This complex of storms has a higher
confidence of occurring compared to the isolated afternoon
convection. Like Monday nights MCS, the strongest portion of
the complex should follow the instability gradient that appears
to set up from central to southeastern Kansas. This may keep the
strongest storms clipping our southwest counties, but there is
still a chance this gradient shifts a bit north, closer to the
I-70 corridor. How far north this will be able to shift will,
again, depend on where any outflow boundary from tonights MCS
lays out. This MCS will likely just pose a widespread wind
threat, but cannot rule out some large hail and a brief QLCS
tornado. Another threat that needs to be mentioned is the flash
flooding threat. Although storm motion and propagation vectors
remain conducive to storms moving quickly, training of storms
may become an issue, especially by the time the later MCS moves
through. With PWATs of 1.75-2 in the afternoon and evening,
very efficient rainfall rates may occur and could lead to
localized flooding concerns. This may especially be true across
along the I-35 corridor as that area is finally beginning to
recover from last weeks heavy rain. Severe chances will
decrease from west to east overnight into Wednesday morning with
much of the area being precipitation free by 7 AM Wednesday.

By Wednesday, a cooler day should take place as temperatures
top out in the mid 80s. Mid-level ridging builds into the
central Plains by Thursday and into the weekend, helping to
continue a warming trend. By Saturday and Sunday, heat indices
across the area should begin to approach the 100-105 degree
range as 65-70 degree dewpoints remain common across the area
and afternoon temperatures build into the low to mid 90s. This
period looks fairly dry as any notable storm systems ride over
the ridge well north of the area. It seems like Summer is
finally upon us!

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

VFR conditions are expected through a good chunk of this
evening. Thereafter, thunderstorm chances will increase from the
west-northwest, especially across central Kansas. The primary
threats with these storms would be localized wind gusts greater
than 40-50 kts, heavy rainfall, and small hail. Uncertainty is
high regarding the location and timing of these thunderstorms,
so left mention out of the 18z TAFs for now.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Griesemer
AVIATION...ICT