302
FXUS63 KTOP 131049
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
449 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and dry weather continues heading into the weekend with highs
  on Friday near record levels.

- The next chance for rain is expected Monday, but there remains a
  fair amount of uncertainty in the forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 213 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

Upper ridging remained over the Rockies as a cut off low spun off
the coast of northern CA per the 08Z water vapor imagery. At the
surface, an area of low pressure was noted along the central high
plains with high pressure to the east of the forecast area.

Not a lot of change to the forecast in the short term, and ensembles
continue to show small spread in the potential outcomes through the
weekend. The forecast area is expected to remain under the influence
of the upper ridging which should keep dry and warm conditions in
place through the weekend. A shortwave passing north of the forecast
area Saturday is expected to bring a weak boundary into the area
late Saturday. This should allow temps to trend cooler for Sunday.
Otherwise it looks like most areas should see afternoon temps in the
lower and middle 70s. The one change made to the forecast was to
include a mention of patchy fog Friday morning. With the pattern
favoring southerly winds and moisture return, forecast soundings
hint at some fog potential. The NAM is obviously to aggressive with
the low level saturation, But the RAP has a signal for some near
surface saturation and the 00Z HREF showed probabilities of 30-50%
for visibilities of a mile are less across a good portion of the
forecast area. Because of the known bias from the NAM with boundary
layer saturation, confidence in widespread advection fog is low and
the setup doesn`t fit an advection fog model very well with ground
temps still relatively warm. So just have a mention of patchy fog
for those areas that may see lighter winds.

There remains an abnormal amount of spread from the 12Z ensembles
for Monday and Tuesday of next week. Although operational solutions
do seem to be converging on the timing of shortwave energy coming
out into the plains. The track and strength of the system is still
in doubt. Think the spread in the ensembles is a result of a bimodal
distribution in the ensembles with a northern track and southern
track. Unfortunately the 00Z operational solutions still want to
show one or the other with the ECMWF tracking well north of the
forecast area and the GFS/Canadian more southerly. Even the southern
solutions are trending in keeping precip mainly north where better
saturation occurs north of the surface low. Given the lower
predictability, the NBM seems to capture the overall chances and
have not swayed from it`s initialization. POPs for Monday have
trended lower given the models keeping QPF mainly north. Assuming
the initial wave remains progressive, Tuesday is looking dry ahead
of the next wave that could move out into the plains on Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 449 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

Models hint at some stratus or fog by Friday morning. Don`t have a
lot of confidence in the NAM forecast soundings given it`s bias for
overdoing the boundary layer saturation. But there are a handful of
solutions with restricted visibilities by 12Z. With for being
possible during the last few hours of the forecast, will hold off on
including restrictions in the forecast and let later shifts evaluate
the latest model runs. Otherwise VFR conditions are expected to
prevail through this evening with just some high clouds.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Updated at 213 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

           Record High         Forecast High
11/14
Topeka       77 (1897)              75
Concordia    74 (1990)              76

11/15
Topeka       78 (1887, 1899, 1950)  73
Concordia    77 (1887, 1952)        72

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wolters
AVIATION...Wolters
CLIMATE...Flanagan/Wolters