069
FXUS63 KTOP 011104
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
604 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low chance for a few strong to severe storms late tonight with
storms moving in from western KS. Small hail and gusty winds main
hazards.

- Low rain chances again Tue and Wed towards central KS, but mostly
dry elsewhere. Rain chances increase area wide Thu and into next
weekend.

- Temperatures stay near to slightly above average, with highs in
the 80s and lows in the 60s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Thunderstorms have finally diminished over the past couple hours, as
a weak surface low shifts off to the east. A few showers and storms
may linger to around sunrise in far eastern KS, but synoptic
subsidence should help things clear out for the daytime hours. With
sunshine and strengthening ridging aloft, temperatures will heat up
into the upper 80s. Weak northeasterly winds will help to advect
some slightly drier air into the area, so it will still feel humid
but not quite as sticky as yesterday. We`ll have to watch for some
more showers and storms overnight tonight as another shortwave moves
over the High Plains. Thunderstorms that develop out in far western
KS may eventually try to make it into western portions of the CWA.
Uncertain they do make it that far given increasing nocturnal CIN,
but if they can move in to central KS some isolated gusty winds or
small hail can`t be ruled out.

Broad high pressure to our northeast will help weak CAA continue
into early Tuesday, keeping the remainder of the week slightly
cooler than today. With the upper ridge nearby though, temperatures
stay near to a bit above average. Highs generally look to be in the
low to mid 80s. Can`t rule out a few showers and storms Tuesday and
Wednesday across western portions of the area, closer to a diffuse
boundary over southwest Kansas. However for most it appears to be a
rare multi-day stretch of dry conditions, especially east of the
Flint Hills.

By Thursday though and into next weekend there are indications we
may return to a bit of a wetter pattern. A weak, slow-moving upper
low looks to develop over the southern High Plains, which would
allow for modest but persistent isentropic ascent across eastern
Kansas. Details will be dependent on the exact track and strength of
the system, but another increase in rain coverage seems plausible at
some point over this period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 603 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Shallow fog has not yet developed at any of the terminals,
but seems to be on the verge of developing at KTOP and KMHK based on
observations. So including some mention of mist/fog there for the
next hour. Expecting VFR conditions for the remainder of the day,
with just a low confidence scenario for weakening storms approaching
MHK after midnight. Winds stay generally easterly around or below 10
kts throughout the day.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Reese
AVIATION...Reese