278
FXUS63 KTOP 142252
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
552 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cool and quiet for the next few days.

- Much hotter for Wednesday ahead of a cold front that will bring
severe weather chances Wednesday evening across eastern KS.

- Seasonable temperatures late week and weekend with rain chances
returning by the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 133 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

The current pattern across the CONUS is dominated by a deep upper
trough centered over the Great Lakes, with ridging out over the West
Coast. Under northwest flow aloft, a broad area of high pressure is
in place over much of the northern and central Plains. As this high
pressure remains in charge over the next couple days, we`ll remain
cool and dry, with much lower humidity compared to recent days.
Tonight should see lows in the 50s across nearly the entire area.

By Tuesday, the high will have passed east of the area, allowing for
southerly return flow to develop. Within continued northwest flow
aloft, one weak shortwave will move southeast across the Upper
Midwest, pushing a weak front through the area mid-afternoon. Can`t
rule out a brief storm or two developing along this boundary, but
given the early frontal timing and the shortwave staying well north,
the chance of this remains quite low.

A much stronger shortwave will approach the Central Plains Wednesday
PM. Quick translation of a 60+ kt 500 mb jet streak will result in a
deep surface low moving into Iowa and southern Minnesota by evening.
A trailing cold front will extend southward back towards central KS.
Strong WAA and moisture advection ahead of this low/front will
result in hot and humid conditions rapidly returning for the
afternoon. Depending on the exact degree of mixing, temperatures
should climb into the mid and upper 90s, with low 70s dewpoints
increasing heat indices around or above 100 across eastern KS. Aside
from the heat, the most notable concern looks to be severe weather
chances returning ahead of the cold front. Given a southwesterly LLJ
and warm 700 mb temperatures, capping should have some sort of limit
on evening storm development. Height falls are also greatest north
of the area, with weak height rises in place over eastern KS. So
confidence is lower in seeing storms compared to farther northeast
into Missouri. However with deep mixing and moderate pressure falls
along the cold front, it seems plausible a few discrete or semi-
discrete storms develop, most likely towards far east-central KS.
This is supported by a slight majority of global model guidance, as
well as the few convective allowing models that go out to 84 hours.
If storms can develop, strong effective shear largely perpendicular
to the boundary should favor a supercell mode, with large hail and
damaging winds. The deeper mixing and warm mid-level temperatures
may limit the tornado threat, but low-level shear appears to be
strong enough that it will have to be watched. Regardless, several
more days to allow the details to fall into place with the exact
magnitude of the storm/severe threat.

Near average temperatures and drier air will move back in behind the
cold front for Thursday. Over the next few days flow will turn more
zonal as a weak trough over the western US flattens ridging over the
Southern Plains. Several shortwaves from the larger trough will move
across the Central Plains Saturday into Sunday. Predictability is
low on the details with these, but precipitation chances should
nonetheless increase as they approach.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 552 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

VFR conditions through the period with clouds increasing into next
period. Overnight, potential for shallow ground fog appears to be
limited due to the dry lower atmosphere in place. Winds return from
the WSW into the morning and midday time frame but generally remain
light.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Reese
AVIATION...Drake