656
FXUS63 KTOP 301727
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1227 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to numerous showers and a few storms today. Elevated
  heat indices possible around central Kansas.

- Small risk for severe winds from thunderstorms late tonight.

- Not as hot with dry conditions this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 623 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Very moist mid-level and boundary layer airmass remains in place in
modest northwest upper flow. A weak wave moving into central Kansas
overnight with a weak low-level jet should continue to spark showers
and a few thunderstorms into the post-sunrise with some potential
for an MCV over far southeast Colorado to keep precipitation going
well into the afternoon, as supported by recent HRRR runs.
Precipitable water values in the 2 to 2.25-inch range will support
the potential for locally heavy rain despite high cloud bases. If
the precipitation lingers, temperatures may only reach the 80s again
today, though mid 90-degree readings were not far to the south and
southwest Wednesday. A faster end could see these later temps
materialize in central and adjacent north-central Kansas, with
dewpoints in the mid 70s quite possible (augmented by more rain
today) and bring heat indices to near 105. Confidence in the
coverage, persistence, and occurrence of this heat is too low for an
Advisory.

A stronger wave continues to look to push southeast through the
northern Plains late today into tonight, with associated
thunderstorms likely to erupt in north-central Nebraska. These
storms may retain some strength as the enter the area after midnight
in decent effective shear and MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg for a small
downburst wind risk this far southeast. The cold front and upper
trough axis move through by mid-afternoon Friday but an isolated
storm or two could form before it moves out. Temperatures should be
somewhat cooler but heat indices around 100 look possible in east-
central Kansas.

A notably-drier and cooler airmass works in for the weekend on
meridional upper flow with some modification into the mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

The morning round of rain is exiting to the east, but scattered
showers have been developing again in central KS. Those could impact
airports early this period so have TEMPO/PROB30 for that
possibility. Otherwise, thunderstorms become more likely tonight.
There could be some brief heavy rain and strong winds associated with
storms. Am currently keeping CIGs VFR, but some models indicate the
possibility of IFR/MVFR after storms exit for a few hours. Winds
then shift to the northwest behind a cold front Friday morning.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Poage
AVIATION...Teefey