226
FXUS63 KTOP 280505
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1205 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low chances for an afternoon thunderstorm exists across far
eastern Kansas this afternoon.

- Dangerous heat becomes the main headline over the next week with
daily heat index values topping out around 100 - 110 degrees.

- Minimal relief will be felt overnight as low temperatures only
fall into the mid to upper 70s.

- An Extreme Heat Warning will be in effect Sunday afternoon through
Friday evening across all of northeast Kansas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 122 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Morning clouds continue to scatter out across eastern Kansas as an
MCV exits east of the area into Missouri. On the back side of this
MCV, some showers were noted across far eastern Kansas, but as this
continues to track east, most low-level lift will weaken ending
appreciable chances for showers/storms. Mid-level water vapor imagery
across the CONUS shows a low over the PNW, shortwave ridging over
the northern Plains, quasi-zonal flow over much of the central US and
a building dome of high pressure over the southern Gulf states. For
the remainder of the day, a fairly stout EML advects into central and
eastern Kansas. This keeps conditions mostly sunny and dry as
afternoon temperatures creep into the upper 80s and low 90s. With Tds
in the upper 60s and low 70s, heat indicies will approach 100
degrees by 4-7 PM today. Minimal relief from the heat will come
overnight as southerly flow continuously pumps in warm low- level air
into the region. Expect warm morning lows bottoming out in the mid
to upper 70s.

The hot and humid conditions are not expected to go anywhere for the
foreseeable future as the very warm and moist airmass intensifies
and stalls over the central US. Mid-level ridging from the southeast
expands across the Plains as southerly flow on the western side of
the ridge does not provide any chances for CAA across the region.
Given the very warm 850-700 mb temperatures over the course of the
week, relief from afternoon thunderstorms will not likely come. This
will lead to mostly sunny skies each day with air temperatures
building into the mid to upper 90s Sunday through Friday. Pair this
with 70-75 degree Tds and heat indicies will reach upwards of 105-110
degrees each afternoon this week. Additionally to the hot afternoon
temperatures, minimal relief will be felt overnight as morning low
struggle to fall below 75 degrees. The small spreads in ensemble
guidance yields high confidence in this set up persisting through the
week and thus, upgraded and extended the Extreme Heat Watch to an
Extreme Heat Warning from Sunday afternoon through Friday evening.
The only real chances (10-20%) for any precipitation across the
region comes Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday evening but will generally
stay west and north of our area. Some relief in a more active
pattern may come by the weekend as the trough out west tries to dig
further south into the 4-corners region. Ridging over much of the
central US looks to remain, but mid-level energy moving across the
Plains could help to mitigate temperatures with cloud cover and
precipitation chances.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1205 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

VFR conditions prevail. Winds increase overnight, becoming intermittently
gusty by 10z with persistent gusts of 25-30 kts taking hold by
14z and continuing through the period. Low-level turbulence is
likely into Sunday morning as the low-level jet increases to
around 50 kts, but elevated surface winds and limited change in
direction with height should preclude true LLWS.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT
Friday for KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-
KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-
KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Griesemer
AVIATION...Flanagan