209
FXUS63 KTOP 191942
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
142 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers build in tonight for some south and east (15-50%) with
more widespread chances Thursday night into Friday (70-95%).

- Cooler weather builds in Friday and Saturday before our next
widespread precipitation chances return Monday.

- A cooler weather pattern is shaping up for the Thanksgiving
  weekend with some chances for precipitation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 141 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

A cloudy and chilly morning has given way to a mostly sunny and
seasonable Fall afternoon as temperatures are slowly building into
the 50s across the area. Aloft, southwesterly flow dominates the
southern and mid-central Plains ahead of a upper low settled over
the desert southwest. This will be the system that brings the area
rain and possibly a few rumbles of thunder tonight and into Friday.
For the remainder of the day, expect light southeasterly winds and
mostly sunny skies as temperatures top out in the upper 50s.

By tonight, lee cyclogenesis initiated by the advancing mid-level
trough will eject across the southern Plains. The surface warm front
will not likely move much further north than southern Kansas through
the overnight hours as the main surface low tracks stalls in
southeastern CO. WAA and upslope flow over the low level boundaries
should result in elevated showers and possibly an isolated
thunderstorm across southeastern and east-central Kansas after
midnight tonight. Not very concerned with any severe weather as most
appreciable instability stays south of the area. By Thursday
morning, better moisture and lift moves south and east of the area
keeping most of northeast Kansas dry. Precipitation chances increase
later in the afternoon and evening as the main mid-level trough axis
moves into Oklahoma and Kansas, taking on a negative tilt while
doing so. This will push the surface low across the southern half of
Kansas and push the warm front north across eastern Kansas.
Widespread showers will take place Thursday night through Friday
morning with rainfall totals nearing an inch for many. NBM
probabilities for areas south of I-70 seeing an inch or greater of
precipitation ranges from 40-75% with the higher probs closer to
east-central KS. Further north, chances of an inch drop to 20-40%.
Rain chances begin to decrease through the afternoon and early
evening Friday as the occluded upper low moves east of the area and
widespread subsidence builds in from the west. CAA behind the wave
Friday afternoon and into Saturday will bring chilly temperatures
for the early weekend with highs topping out in the low to mid 50s
and lows in the 30s Fri/Sat.

The next chance for widespread precipitation comes Monday as another
mid-level wave moves in from the southwestern US. Temperatures
remain near-average for the early Thanksgiving week before an arctic
trough begins to move in by Wednesday and through the late week.
This seems like a good set up for freezing air to filter in from the
north, and if appreciable moisture and lift can coincide Wednesday
and Thursday, some chances for precipitation -  including snow -
could become possible. That said, chances of widespread snowfall
seems low at this time (~10%), but will continue to monitor
forecast trends over the next several days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1134 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

The MVFR and IFR stratus deck is continuing to scatter out this
afternoon with VFR conditions expected for the remainder of the
TAF. Showers move in for KTOP and KFOE overnight tonight, but
kept as VCSH as better chances stay south and east. Some patchy
fog may develop behind the showers Thursday morning, but
confidence remains low at this time and thus, kept out mention
at this time.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Griesemer
AVIATION...Griesemer