828
FXUS63 KTOP 161131
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
631 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot central and south today with heat indices around 102.

- Thunderstorm chances ramp up late this afternoon into tonight
  with strong wind and heavy rainfall concerns.

- Cooler Thursday but heat builds again for the weekend and into
  next week, with heat indices around or above 100 degrees.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Thunderstorms continue to develop behind an outflow boundary
moving southeast across the area. Some training of storms has
produced around an inch of rain in some northern locations.

Even recent updates of short-range models are struggling to keep
up with the outflow, leading to a lower confidence forecast
through tonight. The boundary would serve as an area to monitor
for afternoon storm formation, but convergence may be weak and
little upper support over warm mid levels may be enough to keep
the afternoon dry. More likely development comes tonight when a
moderate though veered low level jet should form over the
boundary. Upper support looks hard to identify but this should
be enough for at least scattered activity. MUCAPE of 1500-2500
J/kg will support severe storm potential, though the warm temps
aloft should keep this limited to straight-line winds.
Precipitable water values around 1.8 inches and flow over a
possible west-to-east oriented boundary bring heavy rain
concerns. HREF suggests a few inches could occur in some
locations from this evening into Thursday morning though where
this would be is highly in question. Given the weaker dynamics
and dry antecedent conditions for most of the area, a Flood
Watch is hard to justify. At least some chance for showers and
storms will continue into Friday morning until the boundary
dissipates though weaker forcing and instability should keep
hazard potential lower.

Hot temperatures will occur again today south of the boundary,
though where this will be precludes a Heat Advisory. The
boundary should be solidly south of the area Thursday with
considerable cloud cover for a much cooler day area-wide.
Southerly flow pushes warm air back in by the weekend into
nearly next week with 850 mb temps likely well into the mid
20s C and southerly flow from the Gulf for a hot and humid
period. Heat headlines may well be needed.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 631 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

VFR conditions are expected through at least 20Z. The boundary
layer may take some time to recover from convection over recent
hours but south winds are expected by 16Z. There is a small
chance for thunderstorms along a surface boundary that may be in
the area in the late afternoon and evening. Better chances come
after 03Z as a cold front pushes through but confidence is
rather low in where and when they will be at this range. MVFR
ceilings may develop behind the front after 06Z so went with a
combined cig/TS forecast late at this point.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Poage
AVIATION...Poage