907
FXUS63 KTOP 171643
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1043 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Small chances for showers mainly east today and this evening.

- Greater chances for showers and possibly thunderstorms late this
  week.

- Mild temperatures through Thursday then closer to normal
  Friday into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

Upper low churning over the central Rockies early this morning
shifts east across Nebraska today into tonight. Somewhat muted
moisture return is underway ahead of it with scattered/broken stratus
deck moving NNE into southeastern Kansas. Isentropic upglide looks
the most focused over far eastern Kansas today, with some guidance
eroding capping enough for some modest instability. Have kept small
shower chances in this area much of the day. Coverage of the stratus
deck is in question and brings some model decent spreads of high
temperatures today. Have backed off a bit given the likelihood of
decent cover into early afternoon. Southeast winds will be somewhat
breezy much of the day too. Could see a few showers from sunset into
the mid evening in the northeast where forcing with the low moves
through with still modest moisture. Winds and cloud cover should
diminish overnight with a surface low moving in which brings some
concern for fog. Confidence is too low for inclusion at this time.

Weak cold-air advection should bring slightly cooler temperatures
Tuesday. Surface high pressure builds in late Tuesday into early
Wednesday but cirrus looks plentiful downstream of an upper low off
the southern California coast to keep fog potential low. This
wave is still progged to bring wet conditions late this week,
though timing is still uncertain. A continued slower trend is
still present with latest GFS and ECMWF keeping mainly dry
conditions in place until Thursday night but wet through Friday
and NBM PoPs seem to be trending this way. Some minor
instability could support some thunder but temperatures remain
warm enough for only rain. Highs look to remain in the 60s
Wednesday and Thursday in modest WAA but somewhat cooler in and
after the precip Friday into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1043 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

Models continue to show stratus hanging out around 3KFT through the
afternoon. Think CIGS should gradually improve as the boundary layer
deepens through the day. Eventually the low clouds should lift north
and east of the terminals. Think there is some potential for ground
fog developing overnight. While the NAM bias is on full display,
there is a signal from the RAP for boundary layer saturation and the
12Z HREF shows probabilities for restricted visibilities of 30 to 50
percent. So may include some MVFR visibilities based off the RAP
forecast soundings.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Poage
AVIATION...Wolters