056
FXUS63 KTOP 301857
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
157 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms redevelop this
  afternoon and evening, with localized flooding possible where
  storms train over areas that saw heavy rain overnight.

- Showers taper from west to east Saturday.

- A stronger storm system brings more rain Sunday night through
  Tuesday with periods of moderate to locally heavy rainfall and
  gusty wind.

- Cooler, drier, and more seasonable conditions return by the
  middle of next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 322 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

For the rest of today, weak large-scale ascent ahead of a low-
amplitude shortwave moving out of the southern Plains will overrun
a quasi-stationary boundary. Modest low-level moisture transport and
any pockets of filtered sunshine south of the boundary should be
sufficient to rebuild modest instability this afternoon. This
supports scattered showers and a few thunderstorms developing along
and just north of the boundary, initially favoring central and east
central Kansas late this afternoon, then spreading northward toward
the I-70 and US-59 corridors into the evening. Deep-layer shear
remains relatively modest and midlevel lapse rates only weakly
enhanced, so an organized severe threat appears low. The primary
concern is localized flooding where any stronger cells repeatedly
track over the same area on already moist soils. Storm motions should
be sufficient to limit widespread flooding, but brief ponding and
minor low-water crossing issues are possible in spots.

Tonight, large-scale ascent tied to the southern stream wave
shifts gradually northeast while the low-level jet veers and
focuses into Nebraska and Iowa. The most likely area to see more
robust rain showers or isolated thunderstorms is the northern tier
counties closer to the nose of the low-level jet. Cloud cover and a
still-moist boundary layer will keep lows mild, mainly in the upper
50s to near 60 degrees.

Saturday into Sunday, the initial shortwave energy lifts into the
Midwest while a compact ridge briefly builds over the central
Plains between systems. With the better forcing and low-level jet
response shifting north and east, precipitation chances decrease
with time on Saturday. Expect lingering showers Saturday, but less
widespread rainfall, tapering from west to east. Cloud cover is
likely to be slow to erode, so highs should hold near 70 to slightly
below degrees in most locations. Saturday night into Sunday, weak
surface high pressure and light winds favor a largely dry period with
continued mostly cloudy skies.

Attention then turns to a more substantial western U.S. trough
that is forecast to deepen and move east into the central Plains
late Sunday through Tuesday. Strengthening south to southeast
low-level flow ahead of this system will draw higher-quality Gulf
moisture northward into Kansas, increasing precipitable water to
above-climatological values for late October. Large-scale ascent
associated with the approaching trough, coupled with a stronger
low-level jet, will support a broad area of rain and embedded
thunderstorms spreading into the area Sunday night and persisting
through Monday and Monday night. With the system still amplifying and
details of the track and phasing somewhat uncertain, there remains
spread in the exact placement of the heaviest axis of rainfall.
Nonetheless, confidence is increasing that much of northeast Kansas
will see a soaking rain during this period.

Instability looks modest and elevated in nature for much of
Sunday night and Monday, which should limit the severe threat.
However, stronger south winds are expected Monday, with gusts
around 40 mph, especially across open areas of north-central Kansas.

By Tuesday, the primary upper trough axis and associated surface
low begin to translate east of the area. Showers should linger
into at least part of the day Tuesday, particularly over eastern
counties, before tapering off from west to east as subsidence and
drier air work in. Highs will trend a bit cooler, mainly in the
mid to upper 60s.

Wednesday and Thursday, northwest flow aloft develops behind the
departing system. Drier air and gradual height rises favor mainly
dry weather with partly to mostly sunny skies. Highs should be
near seasonal norms in the lower to mid 60s with lows in the low
to mid 40s. A weak shortwave passing through the northwest flow
could bring a low-end chance for light showers at some point
toward Thursday, but confidence and potential impacts are low and
the current forecast keeps any such chances minimal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

IFR at KMHK and VFR potentially becoming MVFR at KTOP/KFOE. A wave of
showers and isolated thunderstorms is slowly working northward across
Kansas this afternoon. The showers and thunderstorms will encroach on
the terminals around 23z today. We will likely see showers through
most of the night, with occasional thunderstorms. Some lingering
showers could remain through the day tomorrow, but coverage and
confidence are too low at this point to keep rain prevailing through
the period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Jones
AVIATION...Jones