316
FXUS63 KTOP 051030
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
530 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect until Tuesday evening.
  Afternoon heat index values will reach 100-108 degrees.

- Confidence is increasing in isolated to scattered storms
  impacting the area Sunday afternoon and evening. The overall
  severe potential is low, but the strongest storms could
  produce wind gusts up to 60 MPH.

- Growing likelihood for a cold front to move through the area
  Tuesday evening, bringing chances for showers and storms along with
  slightly cooler temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

The mid-level ridge is in control of the Central and Southern Plains
this morning with a closed upper low still parked across the Pacific
Northwest. Less surface wind has allowed temperatures to fall into
the low 70s this morning, still about 10 degrees above normal.
Conditions today will be similar to yesterday with temperatures
quickly warming up as diurnal mixing commences this morning. Highs
will reach into the middle 90s to near 100 degrees with heat index
values of 100-106. Something to note is the higher moisture content
around 700 mb denoted by some short-term guidance. While large-scale
forcing is lacking, 1000-1500 J/kg of MUCAPE in a weakly capped
environment could (10-15% chance) lead to the development of an
isolated shower or storm this afternoon.

A backdoor cold front approaches the forecast area on Sunday with
cloud cover and some precipitation looking more likely. Guidance has
shown a stronger wave moving around the northern periphery of the
ridge, sparking isolated to scattered showers and storms Sunday
afternoon. Shear of 25-30kts along with DCAPE of 1100-1300 J/kg
could support some strong to severe storms, with damaging wind gusts
being the primary hazard. A complex of storms that develops across
Nebraska Sunday afternoon could move southeast into portions of the
area by late afternoon into the evening, again bringing some
potential for strong winds. Cloud cover and showers/storms will lead
to slightly lower temperatures on Sunday, albeit still hot with
highs in the mid to upper 90s and heat index values in the upper 90s
to around 105 degrees.

Uncertainty has increased in temperatures on Monday and will be
dependent on how convection evolves Sunday evening and overnight.
Cloud cover may stick around through the morning with the potential
for a convective cold pool to move through the area as well. If this
occurs, temperatures may be slower to warm up, but there is good
consensus in a southerly wind working to overcome any outflow-cooled
air and bump temperatures back into the 90s. With temperatures/heat
indices more marginal on Sunday and Monday for an Excessive Heat
Warning, there is the potential for some of the warning to be
trimmed off, especially closer to the KS/NE stateline where heat
indices may fall short of 100 degrees. Will not make any changes to
the Extreme Heat Warning at this point given uncertainty.

A pattern change comes Tuesday as a potent closed low advances east
across southern Canada towards the Great Lakes, shunting a cold
front into the central CONUS. Ahead of the front, breezy
southwesterly winds will likely boost temperatures into the upper
90s to around 100 degrees again Tuesday afternoon with heat index
values of 100-108 degrees. Guidance has come into better agreement
in this front making it into the forecast area Tuesday evening
before the front hangs up across the region through the end of next
week. Chances for showers and storms along the boundary have
increased, especially Tuesday night through Wednesday night. This
also means confidence in relief from the heat has increased.
Temperature spreads remain quite large Wednesday through Friday, but
have trended down with a long tail on the cool side of the
distribution. Even with a slight cool down, temperatures are likely
to remain above-normal for early September.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 530 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

VFR conditions continue. Light south winds through the day
become more southeasterly after 00z, but remain light.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 225 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Record highest minimum temperature information:

                      Record                   Forecast

September 6  Topeka     78, set in 1970           73
 Concordia  81, set in 1939           74

September 7  Topeka     77, set in 1939 & 2016    72
 Concordia  79, set in 1922           75

September 8  Topeka     78, set in 1983           75
 Concordia  77, set in 1947 & 1983    78

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ008-KSZ009-
KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-
KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-
KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Flanagan
AVIATION...Flanagan
CLIMATE...Flanagan/Poage