150
FXUS63 KTOP 281109
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
609 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and storms expected across the area today and tonight. The
  potential for severe weather is low.

- Chances for showers and storms continue through the weekend
  and into early next week, although it will not be a washout
  with dry time mixed in with rounds of rain.

- Temperatures remain near or slightly-above normal into early
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 243 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

An elongated mid-level ridge stretches from the southeast CONUS into
the Northern Plains with a potent closed low spinning over
California. A mid-level perturbation is slowly lifting north across
the Central and Southern Plains this morning and will continue to do
so through the day today, leading to increasing chances for showers
and storms from south to north. Forecast soundings show skinny CAPE,
a deep warm cloud layer, and PWATs of 1.75 (above the 90th
percentile of climatology) that will lead to moderate to at times
heavy rainfall, potentially up to 1 inch per hour based on HREF
members. While the probability is low, it is not out of the question
for some areas to receive locally heavy rainfall, mainly south of
Interstate 70 where instability is highest. Shear is sub-optimal for
severe storms, so severe storms are not expected. Coverage of
showers and storms may lessen this evening before increasing again
overnight as another wave of energy lifts north. This activity will
continue into Friday morning before becoming more isolated to
scattered by Friday afternoon.

The aforementioned California closed low takes on a negative tilt as
it lifts northeast across the Rockies and into the Northern Plains
Friday evening into Sunday. While the best dynamics will remain
northwest of the forecast area, sufficient ascent near the base of
the trough will lead to additional waves of showers and storms,
mainly Friday night into Saturday and again Saturday night into
Sunday. Instability is progged to be higher during this timeframe
with marginally better shear which could lead to some strong to
severe storms, but overall confidence in severe weather is low.
Predictability decreases into next week as the ridge tries to
reorganize over the Southern and Central Plains. Waves of energy
riding through the flow lead to at least low chances for
showers/storms each day, but details are uncertain this far out.
Temperatures remain slightly above normal into next week with highs
in the 80s and lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 609 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

Showers are approaching terminals from the south and will impact
sites by mid-morning. There could be some breaks in precipitation
through the day, but think -RA should dominate. Still anticipate TS
to be more isolated, but have input a TEMPO group at all sites this
afternoon. CIGs could lower to MVFR in heavier rain or storms. There
looks to be a break in precipitation this evening before additional
showers and storms develop overnight. Coverage and timing of this
round of precipitation is uncertain, but input a best guess. CIGs
will likely fall to MVFR early Friday, potentially into IFR.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Flanagan
AVIATION...Flanagan