844
FXUS63 KTOP 290441
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1041 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low impact snow chances Thursday, Friday, and Saturday for
  portions of northern and north central Kansas.

- Arctic airmass returns once again Thursday-Saturday with
  highs in the teens-low 20s each afternoon. Coldest morning is
  on Saturday where wind chills are close to advisory levels
  from 10 to 15 degrees below zero.

- Another potentially stronger storm system may bring a mix of
  rain and snow Tuesday-Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 130 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

Water vapor imagery this afternoon highlights the upper troughs in
northeast provinces of Canada while upstream northwest flow
stretches through the Midwest. Focus turns towards a shortwave
trough shifting into the Inter-Mountain West before lifting
southeast through the plains Thursday. A back door front cold front
is progged to arrive by the morning, resulting in northeast winds
around 10 mph and highs struggling to reach the mid 20s. By the late
morning, increasing mid level moisture with some weak frontogenesis
(850-700mb) may lead to very light snow over far northeast Kansas.
Timing of this forcing amid the low level moisture and some drier
air attempting to evaporate most of the QPF before reaching the sfc.
Outside the NAM, most guidance is dry throughout the day. Added
slight pops on Thursday, however anticipate no accumulations.

The arctic airmass digs in Friday into Saturday as highs are in the
teens and overnight lows are mostly in the single digits. Surface
high pressure centers over the state on Saturday morning, allowing
clearing skies and lows to plummet around 5 degrees below zero.
Confidence remains moderate for Advisory level wind chills ranging
from 10 to 15 degrees below zero. In terms of precipitation,
additional light snow chances return, mostly across north central
Kansas, on Friday as an additional mid-level frontogenetical band
traverses southeast around the backside of the upper low. Little
moisture to work with lends to low confidence in any accumulations,
most likely west of the area with NBM snowfall probabilities less
than 0.5 inch (80-90%) from Concordia to Minneapolis.

Next weak system to note rounds the upper ridge before reaching the
central plains on Saturday evening. Overall ensembles are varied on
the strength of the wave as it weakens further southward. NBM
probabilities have been consistent in snowfall greater than 0.1
inches being 20 percent, down to less than 10 percent for 0.5 inches
or more near the Kansas/Nebraska border. The 20-30 pops still seem
reasonable, highest being north of I-70.

A stronger shortwave trough enters somewhere off the Pacific
Northwest coast over the weekend, entering the region in the Tuesday-
Wednesday time frame.  Orientation of the wave and degree of forcing
greatly varies among ensembles while temp spreads among the NBM are
not surprising (10-15 degree difference) with indications for precip
type being rain initially as forecast highs reach the low 40s. If
precip were to persist into the evening, precip may briefly switch
to all snow.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1041 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

VFR conditions expected. Light northeast winds this evening and
overnight increase to near 10 kts Thursday morning. Guidance has
trended later with the potential for cigs around 2kft to impact
terminals, but confidence is still not high enough to include.
Could see some flurries through the day Thursday, but impacts
to terminals are not expected.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Prieto
AVIATION...Flanagan