884
FXUS63 KTOP 132314
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
614 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered chances for thunderstorms will be expected Saturday afternoon
  and into Sunday afternoon with some storms possibly being on
  the stronger side Saturday night into Sunday. Large hail and
  damaging winds are the main threats.

- Unsettled weather pattern remains in place into next week with
  several more chances for precipitation.

- Warm, seasonable temps anticipated this weekend and next week
  with afternoon highs generally in the low 90s and overnight
  lows in the mid-upper 60s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

The upper level pattern as shown on mid-level water vapor imagery
indicates a stagnant low pressure system over Missouri, a deepening
ridge over the southwest US, southwesterly flow north of the ridge
in the PNW, and deep convection developing in the southeast
downstream of the stalled Missouri low. Northeast Kansas has had
minimal changes to its airmass over the past several days, so muggy
conditions continue this afternoon as temperatures climb into the
low to mid 80s with dewpoints creeping into the mid to upper 60s.
Shallow mixing has given way to diurnal cu and with 50-100mb of
available CAPE, some have tried to develop some light
showers/sprinkles. While a few light showers may develop across the
area this afternoon, not expecting much of any precipitation today.

Tonight and into Saturday morning, nocturnal convection coming off
the high Plains of Nebraska should make its way towards northeastern
Kansas as an MCS, paralleling a path along a theta-e gradient
stretching from Hastings, NE towards Winfield, KS. As storms move
southeast, deep shear will decrease and may tear the organized
nature of the convection apart leading to more scattered storm
coverage as it heads into north-central KS. Further east across far
eastern Kansas, clearing skies, light winds and a moist airmass may
lead to more areas of fog development, especially in low-lying
areas. How widespread and dense the fog may become is still
uncertain, but given the past few nights have seen development,
cannot rule out some patchy, dense fog across far eastern Kansas.

By Saturday afternoon, the decaying morning MCS may leave behind an
MCV through the afternoon and evening Saturday that could become a
focal point for storms to develop again across eastern Kansas.
Overall location of where storms may begin to develop with any
residual MCV still yields low confidence, but CAMs are trying to
come into more agreeance over the past few runs in areas across east-
central KS by the evening. Storms Saturday late afternoon and
evening could become strong given 3000 J/kg of CAPE and 25-30 knots
of shear with large hail, damaging winds and localized heavy
rainfall being the main hazards. Overnight into Sunday morning, a
strengthening LLJ across western Kansas may help to bring more
widespread showers and storms across southeastern Kansas where the
nose of the jet sets up. Most QPF looks to stay south of the area,
but maintained PoPs in the overnight hours to account for this set
up. Scattered chances for thunderstorms will persist across
southeastern Kansas Sunday as more lobes of vorticity round the
upper ridge still parked in the southwestern US. Thinking most of
the area should be dry Sunday as the vort max pushes into
southwestern MO by the afternoon, keeping most precipitation across
southeast KS.

The unsettled Summer pattern persists into next week with muggy
conditions expected to remain. A longer-wave trough begins to push
across western US Tuesday into Wednesday and help to break down the
southwestern ridge a bit. This should increase PoPs again as a cold
front sweeps across the region Tuesday into Wednesday, possibly
increasing chances for severe weather once again.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 610 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

VFR conditions should prevail most of the period with the
possible exception of a few hours of shallow fog around sunrise,
especially KTOP terminal. Potential appears to be too low at
this time to mention. Storms moving in overnight from the west
look to track into central and south central Kansas away from
the terminals. Could be a few showers or storms form into the
mid afternoon Saturday but uncertain if any will form over the
terminals and may just be in the form of diurnal cumulus.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Griesemer
AVIATION...Drake