045
FXUS63 KTOP 131921
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
221 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers this afternoon and into Tuesday. Rainfall
  amounts look to be light, under two tenths of an inch.

- Drier and warmer for Wednesday and Thursday before rain
  chances build back in Friday into Saturday with a cold front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 219 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Synoptic features across the CONUS include a large cutoff low/trough
over the PNW, broad ridging over the southern Plains and a deepening
cyclone over the New England region. Across Kansas, upper-level
southwesterly flow has provided weak waves and vorticity advection
ahead of the western trough, aiding in the precipitation chances we
are seeing today. Surface features across eastern Kansas shows a
surface boundary stalling out near southeastern and south-central
Kansas with isentropic ascent extending north into northeastern
Kansas. This has led to scattered elevated showers across forecast
area and is expected to continue into the late afternoon hours.
Ample cloud cover and weak CAA today will not promote much warming
as temperatures will top out in the 60s and low 70s. By this
evening, mid-level lift decreases a bit and shifts off to our
northwest. Cannot rule out some isolated elevated showers, but most
will remain dry. A slight increase in PoPs will occur during the
late morning and afternoon Tuesday as another wave embedded in the
southwesterly flow advects into central KS. Best chances for showers
will remain across north-central and central Kansas Tuesday as lift
south and east of there will be much weaker. Precipitation chances
begin to wane by the evening Tuesday.

By Wednesday and Thursday, the southern ridge begins to build north
into the central Plains ushering in warmer and drier weather. Expect
highs to return to the low 80s with mostly sunny skies. Chances for
precipitation begin to return Friday as the western trough lifts
into the northern Plains. A deepened lee surface trough should move
across eastern Kansas mid-day Friday providing some lift needed for
rain/storms. That said, most of the mid-level support for this
system will remain north of the area so overall coverage of
precipitation is a big question at this time. Better chances for
precipitation comes Friday into Saturday as the surface boundary
stalls. Currently guidance stalls the boundary across southeastern
Kansas keeping most QPF there as well. The upper-level trough axis
slides east of the area through the afternoon Saturday and into
Sunday with surface ridging building in from the northwest. This
should bring a cooler and drier airmass into northeastern Kansas
with afternoon temperatures topping out in the upper 60s and 70s
and morning lows in the 40s and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Main change to TAFs this issuance is the added mention of
showers at KMHK with VCSH later this afternoon at KTOP and KFOE.
Most showers will remain light with high bases, but some stratus
accompanying showers, especially at KMHK, could bring down
ceilings towards 3-4 kft. Widespread showers should end this
evening with still an isolated chance for the terminals to see
precipitation. Again, the best chances for precipitation will be
at KMHK with decreased chances at KTOP and KFOE. Some MVFR
stratus may begin to move in towards the terminals around
sunrise Tuesday, but did not add mention due to how shallow this
layer of moisture seems. Will continue to monitor.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Griesemer
AVIATION...Griesemer