025
FXUS63 KTOP 281131
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
631 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The forecast continues to have off and on chances for showers and
  storms for the next seven days. Rain is most likely (up to 85%)
  Friday and Friday night and again Monday into Tuesday.

- Above normal temperatures should persist through the end of the
  workweek.

- More seasonal temperatures are forecast by the middle of next week
  with lows in the lower 40s and highs in the lower and middle 60s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Early this morning water vapor satellite imagery along with upper
air analysis showed an upper level trough lifting northeast across
the northern Plains into south central Canada. A second upper level
trough was digging southeast along the Pacific Northwest coastline.
A broad upper level ridge was located across the southeast US.

the 6Z surface map showed a lee surface low over southeast CO, with
a surface warm front extending northeast across northwest KS, then
northeast into western IA. Temperatures south of the warm front
across the CWA were in the lower to mid 60s.


Today through Thursday night:

Early this morning a 40 KT LLJ may cause some isolated showers to
develop across the eastern half of the CWA. Most CAMs show isolated
showers developing across the eastern half of the CWA. The PBL will
mix deep enough by the mid and late morning hours to bring an end
to the isentropic lift showers. Skies may clear by afternoon. As the
lee low deepens in eastern CO, southerly winds will increase late
this morning and through the afternoon hours, with winds of 15 to
25 MPH and gust of 25 to 35 MPH.

The H5 trough across the Pacific Northwest will shift east across
the northern Plains and into the upper Midwest by Thursday night.
The low-level CAA across the northern and central Plains will cause
the boundary across NE to shift southeast across the CWA. There will
be enough convergence along the front for scattered showers and
thunderstorms to back build from southwest IA/southeast NE into
northwest KS during the evening hours. MLCAPES will be in the 1000 to
1500 J/KG range, so there should be some thunderstorms. However,
effective shear will only be 20-25 KTS. Therefore, these storms
should not be severe.

The NAM12, RAP, GFS, and RAP show the front stalling out along or
just south of I-70 early Thursday morning. This will continue the
chances for showers and thunderstorms across much of the area
Thursday into Thursday night.

Highs Today will warm to around 80 degrees with most areas seeing
isolation during the afternoon hours. Highs on Thursday will only
reach the mid 70s north of the front, with highs around 80 south of
the front.

Friday through Wednesday:

The extended range models are in good agreement showing longer wave-
length upper trough developing across the western US. The
southwesterly flow across the central conus will cause a couple of
southern stream H5 troughs to lift northeast across western TX into
eastern KS Friday night. As the H5 trough approaches, DCVA ahead of
the H5 trough will increase ascent and the boundary south of I-70
will lift northward into central NE. Expect periods of showers and
scattered thunderstorms to develop Friday and continue into Saturday
morning. The thunderstorms should shift northeast of the area during
the morning hours, and there could be a break in the rain Saturday
evening (Halloween). But the southerly transport of moisture into
eastern KS may cause showers to continue into Saturday night. The
cloud cover and chances for rain will keep highs slightly cooler on
Friday, with highs in the 70s. Highs will only reach the upper 60s
to lower 70s on Saturday.

The northern stream and southern stream H5 troughs across the western
US will phase together across the southwest US. On Sunday, expect
only isolated to scattered showers due to isentropic lift as the
southern stream H5 trough will fill as it shifts east of the area.

As the southern stream and northern stream H5 troughs phase together,
they will amplify into a deep H5 low across NM by Tuesday. A 60 to
70 KT jet max will will lift northeast across KS on Monday. A deep
surface low across eastern CO will move northeast into south central
NE by 00Z TUE. If there was good instability ahead of the front
moving east across central KS, there would be a potential severe
weather outbreak. However, cloud cover and periods of showers and
thunderstorms may prevent sufficient instability from developing for
widespread severe weather. However,, given 50 to 60 KT southerly
850mb winds Monday afternoon and a line of storms that develops along
the surface front, this line of storms can tap into the stronger
winds aloft and may produce damaging wind gusts monday afternoon. We
will have to watch the potential for severe thunderstorms Monday
afternoon with such a dynamic system. The transport of rich gulf
moisture northward may provide for periods of heavy rainfall Sunday
night through Monday night. NBM shows 1.5" to 2.5" of rainfall Friday
through Tuesday.

Both the GFS and ECMWF track the deep H5 low east across northern
OK on Tuesday. The thunderstorms and richer moisture will pivot
northeast of the area Monday night but expect rain to continue as
frontogenesis develops north of the H5 low track. The periods of
rain will continue into Wednesday before the upper low shifts east
into western AR.

Highs will warm into the lower to mid 70s Monday afternoon, within
the warm sector, ahead of the cold front. Tuesday and Wednesday will
be cooler with highs in the 60s on Tuesday and mid 50s to lower 60s
on Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 627 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

A 40kt southwesterly low-level jet at 1200 feet will cause moderate
low-level windshear of 25 to 30 KTS through 14Z. After 14Z, southerly
surface winds will increase to 14 to 18 KTS with gusts to 22 to 30
KTS through sunset. After sunset the wind gusts will diminish.
Otherwise, expect VFR conditions.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Gargan
AVIATION...Gargan