184
FXUS63 KTOP 261146
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
646 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures continue through this forecast.

- Small (20-60%) precipitation chances in mainly north-central Kansas
  Today. There will be a (20-40%) precipitation chance Tonight into
  Tuesday across northeast and east-central Kansas.

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase by the end of the
  workweek, and may last through the weekend into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 302 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Early this morning water vapor satellite imagery along with upper
air analysis showed an upper trough extending from WY, south-
southeast into eastern NM. An upper low was moving onshore across
across the Pacific Northwest. An upper ridge was centered across the
western Gulf and extended northward into the mid MS River Valley.

The 6Z surface map showed a surface front extending from northern
MI, west-southwest across southern IA, then west-southwest across
southeast NE into north central and northwest KS. A line of
scattered rain showers extended north of the front across southeast
NE, southwest into north central KS. Temperatures north of the front
were in the mid 40s to lower 50s. South of the front, across the CWA,
temperatures were in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

Today through Tuesday:

The surface front across north central KS/southeast NE will remain
nearly stationary Today. Most CAMs show the showers across north
central KS early this morning will diminish by mid morning across
north central KS. As the H5 trough across CO and eastern NM lifts
northeast across western KS later Today, then into eastern NE and IA
Tonight into early Tuesday, the ascent ahead of the H5 trough will
allow showers to redevelop across north central KS, and these showers
will then move east through the night across northeast and east
central KS. Most CAMs show 50-100 J/KG of MUCAPE Tonight through
Tuesday, so don`t be surprised if you hear an occasional clap of
thunder. The front will push southeast into the central counties of
the CWA, before becoming stationary. The scattered to numerous
showers should diminish through Tuesday afternoon as the H5 trough
lifts farther northeast across western IA, shifting the ascent across
north central MO and central IA. The RAP/NAM/GFS show frontolysis
occurring late Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night. The upper low
over the Pacific northwest will shear apart into separate H5
troughs. The lead H5 trough will lift northeast across the northern
Plains. The second H5 trough will dig slightly southeast across
WA/OR.

Tuesday night through Friday:

Wednesday looks dry. Wednesday night into Thursday, the secondary H5
trough across WA/OR will shift east across the northern Plains. This
H5 trough may be a bit more amplified with the southern edge of the
H5 trough axis moving east across NE/northern KS, providing stronger
ascent across northeast KS Wednesday night into Thursday. A surface
cold front will also push southeast across northeast and east central
KS late Wednesday night into Thursday. The ECMWF and GFS are in good
agreement with a back building line of storms across eastern KS on
Thursday. The ECMWF is quicker moving the front and H5 trough across
the Plains. The GFS is slower and keeps the front nearly stationary
across east central and northeast KS. The effective shear will be
stronger and southerly 850mb winds will advect richer moisture
northeast, ahead of the front. There will be a better chance for
thunderstorms on Thursday, and there may be a few organized updrafts,
especially if the GFS solution is more accurate.

The extended range models show a southern stream H5 trough across
west TX lifting northeast under an amplifying H5 ridge axis across
the mid and upper MS River Valley. Showers and thunderstorm chances
(45-65%) will increase Friday into Friday night. The effective shear
will be weaker Friday, thus I do not expect any organized updrafts.
Highs will be in the upper 70s to around 80 degree. A slight cool
down on Friday with mostly cloudy skies and periods of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs on Friday will reach the lower to mid 70s.

Friday night through Monday:

The extended range models show a longer wave-length H5 trough
developing across the western US. The southwest flow across the
central and southern high Plains will cause a lee surface trough to
deepen. Southerly surface winds east of the lee surface trough will
allow richer Gulf moisture to advect northward. Any mid level
perturbation ejecting northeast across the Plains will provide ascent
for chance of showers and thunderstorms. Southerly winds will keep
highs in the 70s into early November.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 629 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Expect VFR conditons through the next 24 hours. Light winds this
morning will become southerly and increase to 8 to 11 KTS, then
subside near sunset. Late Tonight there may be isolated to widely
scattered rain showers around the terminals, better chances at KMHK
for a rain shower.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Gargan
AVIATION...Gargan