807
FXUS63 KTOP 250448
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1148 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm temperatures continue for the next week, with highs in the
70s to low 80s.

- Low chances (20-40%) for light showers on most days next week, but
not expecting much in the way of rainfall amounts through Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 207 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

The seasonably deep upper low over the Southwest CONUS continues to
gradually fill this afternoon, still pumping deep moisture
northwards across the Rockies and High Plains. Upper ridging
centered over the Mississippi Valley is preventing this low from
moving much east. There is a weak cold front approaching northern
KS, but it is progged to wash out this evening and not be much of a
factor going forward. As a result, warm and dry conditions remain in
place across the forecast area, and will continue through Sunday.

By Sunday night into Tuesday, a second upper low will move into the
Pacific Northwest, lifting the original low north-northeast across
the Plains. The best moisture transport and lift looks to remain
west of the area, so appreciable rainfall is not expected. However a
few rounds of light rain still seem plausible. This would initially
be towards central KS on Monday, then farther east on Tuesday as a
secondary vorticity maxima lifts northeast. Clouds may keep
temperatures Tuesday down a bit, but overall warm temperatures will
continue without any notable cold front.

The warm pattern will hold for the rest of the week too, as
troughing amplifies out west with broad ridging expanding over the
eastern CONUS. A few more weak perturbations will move through the
southwesterly flow aloft, which will keep some low PoPs around each
day. However the better chances for any widespread rain will hold
off until the main western trough moves east towards the Plains.
This looks to be around or after the end of the current forecast
period, likely not until next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

VFR TAFs continue over the period at all sites. A weak boundary may
shifts winds around at KMHK through the early morning hours Saturday
but southerly flow should return by late Sunday morning. Mid to high
clouds continue to filter in from the southwest with some rain
chances approaching KMHK by the late period. Best confidence in
precipitation remains west of KMHK so kept out mention at this time.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Reese
AVIATION...Griesemer