754
FXUS63 KTOP 221140
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
540 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The weekend starts off dry and warm before another system
  brings rain back to the region Sunday night through Monday.

- Cooler and drier weather moves into the area next week.
  Thanksgiving day looks cool and dry with highs in the 40s.

- May be another chance for rain into next Weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 158 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025


Early this morning water vapor satellite imagery showed split upper
level flow across the conus. The norther branch of the upper level
jet extended from western Canada east-southeast across the northern
US, then around an upper low over Quebec, Canada. The southern
branch of the upper jet extended along the CA coast, south-southwest
to a closed upper low off the southern CA coast, then the southern
branch of the jet extended east-northeast across OK/TX into the mid
Atlantic states where it merged with the northern stream jet across
the northeastern US. The upper trough that caused the steady rain
across the CWA yesterday has filled and is now shifting east of
the Mid MS River Valley.

At 1 AM, the surface map showed a broad ridge of high pressure
across the northern and central Plains building southward. The
edge of low stratus was along and southeast of an Abilene, to
Holton, to Oskaloosa line. The clearing line will slowly shift
southeast through the early morning hours. Patchy to areas of
fog will begin to develop where skies have cleared, though
slightly drier air advection may limit the areal coverage of
fog.

Saturday through Sunday:

The upper low off the southwest CA coast will lift northeast
across the southwestern US, then northeast to the central NM/CO
border by 00Z MON. Ahead of the upper low an upper level ridge
will amplify across the southern high plains and shift northeast
across central and southern Plains. If any fog develops through
the early morning hours it should mix out by 8 am. Skies will
become sunny by this afternoon. Highs this afternoon will reach
the upper 50s across the southeast counties to the lower 60s
across the remainder of the CWA.

Sunday, as the downstream H5 ridge shifts east across the
central and southern Plains, and surface winds become more
southerly, high temperatures should reach the lower to mid 60s.
High and mid level Clouds will increase through the afternoon
hours of Sunday, as the upper low tracks northeast into
northern NM and southern CO. A 60KT H5 jet max will lift
northeast across west TX, into southwest KS. The lift in the
left exit region of the H5 jet will provide enough ascent for
rain showers to develop across southwest KS.

Sunday night through Monday night:

The closed upper low will fill into an open H5 trough and shift east-
northeast across KS during the day on Monday. Ahead of the H5 trough
850mb winds will transport residual moisture northward into the
central Plains Sunday night. The resulting isentropic lift and DCVA
ahead of the H5 trough axis will cause widespread rain showers
to develop from west to east across the area Sunday night into
Monday. Expect periods of rain through the day Monday as a
surface cold front shifts southeast across the area. The mean
QPF from the LREF ensembles show most of the area receiving
0.25" to 0.4" from Sunday night through Monday night. The
eastern counties of the CWA may see up to 0.5" of QPF. As the H5
trough shift east into MO, the rain should end from west to
east across the CWA during the evening hours of Monday. Highs
Monday will be cooler but still above seasonal norms in the mid
to upper 50s.


Tuesday through Friday:

The extended range models are in good agreement with forecasting
an upper level trough digging southeast out of western Canada
into the Great Lakes and amplifying by late Thursday
(Thanksgiving). The northwest upper level flow across the
central Plains will keep dry conditions across the CWA. A
surface ridge of high pressure will build southward from the
northern Plains into central and southern Plains Tuesday night,
which will bring a colder airmass southward across eastern KS.
Highs on Tuesday may be the warmest with upper 40s to mid 50s.
Wednesday may be the coldest day of the week with highs in the
lower to mid 40s. Thanksgiving day will be a bit warmer with
highs in the mid to upper 40s. Friday, the surface ridge of high
pressure will shift southeast into the lower MS River Valley.
Southerly winds across the CWA on the west side of the surface
ridge will moderate high temperatures into the upper 40s to
lower 50s.

Friday night through Saturday:

An upper level trough will dig southeast cross central CA into the
southwester US on Saturday. Residual moisture return may result in
strengthening isentropic lift for rain showers to develop across the
CWA during the day on Saturday. The GFS shows the better chance for
showers across MO, though both the ECMWF and Canadian forecast QPF
across the CWA through the day Saturday.

Looking ahead to the end of the Thanksgiving day weekend. The upper
trough will remain across the southwestern US, with one H5 trough
lifting  into the northern high Plains. At this time,
across much of the central and southern Plains, temperatures
will be warm for the precipitation type to be rain. Farther
northwest and north, there may be a chance for snow from
northeast CO, northeast across the NE PNHDL into SD, and
northern MN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 536 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

There a band of IFR/MVFR stratus west of KTOP and KFOE, which
will move across the terminals in the next 2 hours. Skies should
clear after 14Z but SCT to BKN CU may form this afternoon with
bases of 2500 to 3500 feet. The CU will dissipate towards
sunset.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Gargan
AVIATION...Gargan