938
FXUS63 KTOP 251722
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1222 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There will be a chance (40-70%) for thunderstorms Thursday
  afternoon and evening. Some of the storms may be strong to
  severe with the primary hazards being damaging wind gusts and
  heavy rainfall.

- There will be slight chances for thunderstorms Friday and
  Saturday. A better chance (50-80%) for thunderstorms Sunday
  night.

- Look for a cool down early next week with highs in the 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 311 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Early this morning, water vapor satellite imagery showed an upper
level trough across the southwest US. A broad upper level ridge was
centered over the TN river Valley. A low-amplitued upper trough was
located across the northern Great Lakes.

The 7Z surface map showed a weak surface boundary lifting northwest
from northeast NE, Southwest into far northwest KS and northeast CO.
A line of showers and thunderstorms were lifting northward across
central and eastern NE. Any light showers in the northwest counties
of the CWA should shift north into NE by sunrise.

Today through Tonight:

The upper ridge across the TN River Valley will expand westward into
eastern OK/eastern TX. The upper trough across the southwest will
fill ans shear apart with one low amplitude H5 trough lifting
northeast into the central high Plains Plains late Tonight.
Expect mostly clear skies, with increasing clouds late Tonight.
As weak ascent shifts east into western KS showers and
thunderstorms will develop during the evening hours. A few of
these showers and storms may reach north central KS late Tonight
into the early morning hours of Thursday.

Highs Today will reach the lower to mid 90s,  with heat indices in
the mid to upper 90s.

Thursday through Thursday night:

The low amplitude trough will shift east across NE/KS during the
day. A weak front will also push southeast across the CWA late
Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. The combination of
sfc convergence along the front and ascent ahead of the H5
trough will produce enough lift for showers and thunderstorms to
develop Thursday afternoon. The environment in the warm sector
ahead of the front will see modest instability and weak vertical
wind shear. MLCAPE values will be 2000-3000 J/KG, thus we could
see strong to severe thunderstorms develop during the afternoon
hours along and ahead of the front. The primary hazards will be
severe wind gusts and heavy rainfall.

Highs on Thursday will reach the lower to mid 90s, with heat indices
around 100 degrees along and south of I-70.

The H5 trough and front will move east of the area early Friday
morning, thus the showers and storms should shift east of the area.


Friday through Saturday night:

Weak zonal flow will develop on the north side of a ridge axis that
will stretch across the southern portions of the US. There may be
isolated showers and thunderstorms developing in the afternoon and
evening. Any storm that develops will be a pulse type storm and may
produce strong gusty winds. High temperatures on Friday may only
reach the lower 90s.  Highs will warm a bit into the lower to mid
90s on Saturday, with heat indices in the upper 90s to around 100
degrees.


Sunday through Wednesday:

The extended range models are in fair agreement with an H5 trough
moving from the Pacific northwest, then across the northern Plains
on Sunday. The upper trough will dig southeast into the mid MS River
Valley late Monday. A stronger cold front will move through the area
late Sunday afternoon into Sunday night, and will only move slowly
southeast across the CWA into Monday. Expect showers and
thunderstorms to develop along the front across north central KS
late Sunday afternoon and evening, then a line of showers and
storms will slowly move southeast across the CWA Sunday night
into Monday. PoPs will be 60-70% across the CWA Sunday night. A
few of the storms late Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening may
be strong to severe with gusty winds an possibly some small
hail, since the effective shear may increase above 20 KTS. The
storms should weaken during the mid and late evening hours
across east central KS. There may also be the potential for
heavy rainfall.

A cooler airmass will move southeast across the CWA Monday
through Wednesday with highs only reaching the 80s. The upper
flow will be northwesterly and minor perturbation embedded
within the northwest flow may bring a chance for showers and
storms by Wednesday as the richer moisture returns.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Expecting VFR conditions to continue through the period,
with just some cumulus around 5 kft this afternoon. Any
showers/storms should stay northwest of KMHK through tomorrow
morning. Winds stay generally 8-12 kts from the south, slightly
stronger during the day and weaker at night.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Gargan
AVIATION...Reese